Is HW3 enough to run robotaxi? Thinking to upgrade to FSD if i am keeping the car for longer period
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Will HW3 REALLY deliver FSD ? some questions
- Thread starter Tes La Ferrari
- Start date
gigawatt1010
Member
I wonder if people will feel differently and generally more accepting if Tesla stopped calling it FSD and sell it as a driver assist package instead? Is Navi On Auto, Summons, etc worth $7k? I bet people will be more accepting if that's the case. Personally I know I would - as opposed to having me keep waiting.
Tam
Well-Known Member
FSD is still in its infancy so Hardware 2 was upgraded to Hardware 2.5 then 3.0 and who know 6.0, 10.0 or more in future?
Tesla has not proven that it can do an L5 autonomous drive yet, so FSD is just speculation.
Although I bought FSD understanding that it means L5 autonomous but I bought FSD not because I think it will do FSD but I think it will be better than driving manually.
Tam
Well-Known Member
I think Waymo heavily prepares the routes within a geofenced area and the system won't work outside of that prepared area.
Tesla said it could to an autonomous Coast-to-Coast by just coding for that specific route but it prefers a general solution that works everywhere worldwide.
At this speed, both Waymo geofenced and Tesla general solution methods will take a very long time. I wouldn't be surprised if it will be decades or even more.
whitex
Well-Known Member
You mean the coast-to-cost autonomous demo they will be doing by the end of 2017? It will happen as soon as they invent a time machine, or maybe they will tell us there was a typo, Elon meant by end of 2170, just a zero difference, right?
Elon promises a lot of stuff which he doesn't deliver. He is very good at excuses. FSD as sold before March 2019 was advertised as Level 5 autonomy (think autonomous summon from New Your to Los Angeles, an example Elon actually used). That will NEVER happen for the cars sold with that feature. At some point Tesla will just issue partial refunds, of maybe even full refunds of the FSD price to anyone who still owns the FSD car they bought before March 2019. Kinda like they are doing refunds on the solar roof deposits now - it was free loan to Tesla. For FSD, that 10's if not 100's of million dollars free loan. Of course by the time this happens, there will be very few owners still owning the FSD cars from March 2019, and new owners will just look at the current definition of Level 2 (instead of Level 5) FSD, or they won't get the original FSD at all because Tesla will strip it (wither through their own CPO program or by using some excuse, like "sold through third party") and let them buy the new Level 2 only FSD. Elon is smart, there is reason why they call the feature exactly the same thing, even though its definition went from Level 5 autonomy to Level 2 driver aid.
whitex
Well-Known Member
With his capacity to sell, he could probably collect $100M in deposits for this time machine. Make a fake video like the FSD video back in 2016, tell people it's coming by the end of the year, but not for sure, start taking fully refundable deposits, collect interest on $100M for years before having to give it back.
Various communities - particularly the mobility challenged (think elderly) - would benefit greatly from autonomous shuttles in geofenced areas. Waymo already doing shows that approach can be scaled before long. AV success should not be declared by AVs being everywhere all the time. Communities would benefit from enhanced mobility "in this area most of the time."
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Sorry, too late to fix.
"Look how far off MCU1 / HW2 / FSD owners are from getting HW3 upgrades" I was actually thinking about AP1 EAP - FSD upgrades getting HW3. But then realized I wan't sure if FSD upgrades were sold to AP1 cars. Thought I read they were at one time.
Tam
Well-Known Member
Tesla only promised pre-paid upgrade to Hardware 3 maximally and none after that.
Tam
Well-Known Member
I agree that anything better than manual driving is very much welcome.
As a consumer, we should only pay for what is proven: a 1 foot-extension cord can be verified at home with a ruler that it is indeed at least 1 foot long or I can report the discrepancy to the authority.
However, when we pay for FSD, its ability is currently verified that it is not FSD.
It's true that I clearly enjoy what I can do with FSD now, but that does not negate the fact that its current capability is not what I paid for.
As to the timeline, it's easy to create a timeline something in future when the future is not here yet.
When Chris Urmson worked for Google’s self-driving car project in 2015, he hoped his 11 year old son wouldn't need a driver license in 4 and a half more years because there would be so many autonomous cars in 2020.
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But what do you think the DID pay for then? Pretty much the only thing actually promised by Tesla that they have not delivered is handling stop lights / stop signs automatically. And that is in progress.
I'm not saying that they are near "full self driving" in the sense of a fully autonomous car that will drive you to work while you read a book. But did they ever promise that? What were (are) your expectations?
MXLRplus
Active Member
Go back to Nov 2016. The Tesla is Hand's Free and fully autonomous that just needs "Regulatory Approval".
whitex
Well-Known Member
Here is what people paid for (description from Tesla Design Studio):
The only things they delivered so far is:
- 8 cameras enabled
- Tesla can determine a route based on GPS destination, whether or not it's optimal is debatable, but let's give them that one
Of course by 2016 Tesla legal has had 8 years of experience with Elon marketing, so they added the disclaimer (highlighted in yellow) which basically means as long as they claim they are working on it, even 10 or 20 years later, they have no other legal obligation, in case someone wants to sue.
whitex
Well-Known Member
Except Waymo cars have "way more" sensors (pun intended), and they've been doing this a lot longer too. Comparing Waymo self-driving to Tesla's current solution on the market would be like comparing Space X crewed capsule delivery to North Korea's missile launches - Kim Jong-un is not going to be able to deliver any astronauts to ISS with any of his missiles.
Maximus-MX
Member
I believe, if we are lucky, FSD level 4 might be delivered with HW10, between 2040 and 2050. But I paid for FSD with the order of my model X (2017) and model 3 (2019), so that I contribute to the FSD R&D, in the hope that 20-30 years from now (when I retire), I will get something meaningful.
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