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Will increased battery capacity be a firmware upgrade?

Discussion in 'Model 3' started by Nuclear Fusion, May 28, 2017.

  1. Nuclear Fusion

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    Now that the inside knowledge is the base model will have a 60 kWh battery, will it simply be a firmware upgrade?
    Will that battery be a 70 kWh, based on mule testing, or 75 kWh based on Elon Musk tweet?

    Possibly having a single battery size reduces average production costs per unit
     
  2. Runt8

    Runt8 Member

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    The general consensus seems to be that the lower price point of the M3 makes this very unlikely. No one knows for sure.
     
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  3. kort677

    kort677 Banned

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    As of now no, the future is an unknown
     
  4. Garlan Garner

    Garlan Garner Well-Known Member

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    I like your thinking. I'm wondering the same thing. I'm wondering if the $35K version will have the same battery as the $60K+ version that is simply software limited.
     
  5. strykeroz

    strykeroz Member

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    Let's dare to dream
     
  6. Nuclear Fusion

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    I can't imagine a 70% price premium for a higher capacity!!
     
  7. azred

    azred Member

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    I noticed a fancy analysis at Teslerati today speculating that upgrading from 55 to 70 will cost $7000, which is $500 more than the cost of upgrading an S60 to S75 at purchase until the S60 was discontinued. Charging more for Model 3 upgrades than identical Model S upgrades seems absurd. As for a firmware Model 3 55 to 70 upgrade, I have thought that would be the most efficient plan but when this has been debated before others have pointed out the costly nature of including the extra battery capacity. If the Teslerati article turns out to be accurate, I sure hope the upgrade is via firmware because $7k upfront just for the bigger battery will be very discouraging for those on a budget.
     
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  8. Booga

    Booga Member

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    There is no way that the marginal cost of the battery is outweighed by a slightly different production arrangement. I doubt a software battery upgrade will be offered under most circumstances. If it was worth it, the S and X would still have it.

    Personally, I would love it if they do it, but only because I know I will get the benefits of the larger pack in most every instance where it matters (long distance supercharging till 80%).
     
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  9. LargeHamCollider

    LargeHamCollider Battery cells != scalable

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    No.
     
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  10. Nuclear Fusion

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    A firmware upgrade is a greater incentive that results in sales, than having to buy a new car
    I am betting the battery is a firmware upgrade
     
  11. shrspeedblade

    shrspeedblade Member

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    I'm leaning towards two different battery sizes, because if the 60 were only a software locked 75 fewer people would go for the larger size, which effects profit margins. And clearly the margins on this car are of paramount importance (most every thread in this forum is connected to it in some way).
    It would certainly make me have second thoughts as you're giving up far less with the smaller rating.
     
  12. Booga

    Booga Member

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    If that were the case, it would be used more in current sales than less.

    There are a few variables tesla has to consider:

    1. Extra cost up front
    2. Percentage that upgrade
    3. Distribution of timing for when that upgrade occurs

    Tesla has to essentially make an investment counting on those factors to work out. And when you consider that some buyers get partial benefits of a larger battery (faster charging, can charge to 100% with less impact, etc.), then fewer do it anyway.

    I think tesla ought to be doing a good enough of a job getting customers into the right car to begin with and not rely on future battery upgrades.
     
  13. Tiger

    Tiger Member

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    Mathematically it is a no-brainer: the likelihood of a customer purchasing firmware update is 100% higher than the likelihood of a customer upgrading a non firmware battery upgrade. To put this in another way, say x % of the cars are sold with smaller range and assume those buyers cannot/dont want to afford the longer range at time of purhcase. If upgrade can be done later via firmware upgrade, then y% of these x% will buy more range. If battery upgrade is not firmware, this additional sale cannot be made. So yes, firmware upgrade makes business sense if priced appropriately.
     
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  14. Troy

    Troy Active Member

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    #14 Troy, May 28, 2017
    Last edited: May 28, 2017
    75 and software limited 60 is not going to happen because it would ruin profit margins. However, they might introduce a 75, a 60 and a few months later a software limited 55 kWh to keep the base price at $35,000. It would look like this:

    Sep 2017: 75 kWh Model 3 at $45,000
    Oct 2017: 60 kWh Model 3 at $37,500
    Apr 2018: 55 kWh Model 3 at $35,000 (software limited pack, actual capacity is 60)

    In a scenario like this, most people who want the smaller battery would pick the 60 kWh version instead of waiting 6 months longer. That's what Tesla wants because the $2,500 price difference is very important in terms of profit margins. Tesla must achieve 30% gross profit margins because that's what Elon has promised. See the list here for details. Besides having minimal negative effect on profit margins, this scenario also technically keeps the base price at $35,000.

    When Tesla first released the Model S, the base price had to be below $50,000 because that's what they were advertising. So, they released the Model S 40 kWh at $49,900. The 40 was a software limited pack. Actual capacity was 60 kWh. A few months later, they discontinued the 40. The 55 kWh Model 3 could have the same faith.
     
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  15. strykeroz

    strykeroz Member

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    Firmware updated battery upgrade also decreases the number of models offered by half (unless you tie the bigger battery to the D and P options only).

    All this speculation is fun, but we'll know for sure in under 2 months time...how exciting!
     
  16. Nuclear Fusion

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    Because then people would get the 75 kWh upgrade when they needed it?
    Assuming costs are $150/kWh, then the cost to Tesla's gross margin is $2250
    When you consider the inclusion of autonomous hardware, it becomes a profit factor
     
  17. JeffK

    JeffK Well-Known Member

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    The expected cost of 2170s leads me to think the upgrade from 60 to 75 kWh is going to be between $4000 - $5000. It's just a wild guess though at this point.
     
  18. strykeroz

    strykeroz Member

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    The same upgrade on the S was $7k so that's not quite so wild. (source: electrek.com)
     
  19. azred

    azred Member

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    I think your conclusion is right even if the rationale is wrong. I think upgrades will be cheaper across the board when compared with the same options on big bro Model S. Upgrade from S60 to S75 was $6500 at purchase so $4000-$5000 or so sounds about right for Model 3. That would also mean AP2 and EAP will be less than $5000/$3000, perhaps about $4000/$2000.
     
  20. pkalhan

    pkalhan Member

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    @azred I so hope to god your guesses on option pricing is correct or close to correct. I would love to get the bigger battery pack, but if the cost to get it is the same as going from a Model S 75 to a Model S 90 ($15K jump...I think), that would be crippling to my budget LOL.
     

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