Will January/February 2016 mirror January/February 2014?

[Cattledog]

On November 18th, 2013 Tesla had hit a post-fire low of 121.38. On January 13th, 2014, the day before Jerome pronounced 'Reckless Growth' at the NA Auto Show in Detroit, Tesla was still only at 139.34. 10 days later, it had appreciated 30% from the 1/13 price to 181.50 on 1/23 and then to 253.00 on 2/26, 80% above the January price and more than double the late-2013 price.

Will history repeat?

If Tesla announces Q4 deliveries on or about Monday, 1/4 and they beat the low end of guidance, convey accelerating Model X production, and hint at 2016 numbers, or hint at Gigafactory progress, or hint at Model 3 design progress, or if SpaceX sticks the landing later tonight, what will happen to the share price?

30% above today's price gets us above $300/share. 80% above today's price gets us above $400/share. Will it happen? Will $300 happen before the end of January? Will $400 happen before the end of February?

Not betting against it.

 

[Ryo]

I think it's a definite possibility to see that type of price but my timeframe would be May 2016. This includes Q1 which I expect to be the big catalyst. Of course, gigafactory, M3 reveal, and MX ramp won't hurt either. :smile:

What makes you think Q4 deliveries might be announced Monday? Isn't the rule to announce within 3 days after quarter end?

 

[MikeC]

I think it's a definite possibility to see that type of price but my timeframe would be May 2016. This includes Q1 which I expect to be the big catalyst. Of course, gigafactory, M3 reveal, and MX ramp won't hurt either. :smile:

What makes you think Q4 deliveries might be announced Monday? Isn't the rule to announce within 3 days after quarter end?

The 1st is a national holiday, followed by a weekend on the 2nd-3rd. It will be interesting to see which day they release the numbers because they did say within 3 days.

 

[Cattledog]

I think it's a definite possibility to see that type of price but my timeframe would be May 2016. This includes Q1 which I expect to be the big catalyst. Of course, gigafactory, M3 reveal, and MX ramp won't hurt either. :smile:

What makes you think Q4 deliveries might be announced Monday? Isn't the rule to announce within 3 days after quarter end?

Monday 1/4/16, not next week (though would be cool). By May I expect great Q4, great Q1, Gigafactory launch and Model 3 reveal will be history. I think if they get the great Q4, people will start buying in anticipating the other events.

 

[AlMc]

Monday 1/4/16, not next week (though would be cool). By May I expect great Q4, great Q1, Gigafactory launch and Model 3 reveal will be history. I think if they get the great Q4, people will start buying in anticipating the other events.

I think you are correct. Now, even if you are *wrong* about the Q4 meet/beat, I think the other catalysts get us there in Q2 2016.

 

[Cattledog]

I think you are correct. Now, even if you are *wrong* about the Q4 meet/beat, I think the other catalysts get us there in Q2 2016.

I certainly think intermediate term options (June 16 or later) and shares will reap the appreciations. Investing in the shorter term (short term options - from early January to March) have greater risk, greater return opportunity.