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Will L5 FSD be possible with Model 3's AP 2.5 hardware?

Discussion in 'Model 3' started by voip-ninja, Oct 10, 2017.

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Will L5 FSD be possible with Model 3's AP 2.5 hardware?

  1. Yes!

    16.2%
  2. No!

    83.8%
  1. voip-ninja

    voip-ninja Member

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    Nvidia recently released their newest system and specifically said that the system Tesla is using for AP 2.5 won't be capable of full autonomy.

    Musk says L5 autonomy with AP 2.5 is possible "within a couple of years" depending on regulatory hurdles. After making these statements some engineers and executives left Tesla who were involved in the AP efforts.

    What do you think? Do you think that Tesla can make good on "taxicab" like autonomy in the Model 3 with the hardware it is being built with today?
     
  2. powertoold

    powertoold Member

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    What is so confusing to me is how Elon can be so confident in AP2-2.5 when it still seems so far from his claims. During an earnings call, he said people shouldn't bet against Tesla when it comes to FSD. Right now, I have no problem betting against Tesla when it comes to AP and FSD.
     
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  3. AmpedRealtor

    AmpedRealtor Well-Known Member

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    L5 is impossible with the current sensor suite because the current suite lacks the required redundancy to make L5 a reality.
     
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  4. J1mbo

    J1mbo Member

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    Required by who?

    No legal requirement for redundancy.

    Of course redundancy is a A Good Thing but let's be clear: assuming AP2.0 is capable of FSD (as marketed) and assuming FSD = L5 (grey area) then the answer to the OP is still "maybe".

    Sadly "maybe" isn't a poll option :(
     
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  5. Phrixotrichus

    Phrixotrichus Member

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    imho the current hardware won`t even be capable of going beyond level 2 for almost all situations.
    Level 4 and 5 is far beyond Tesla`s reach atm.
     
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  6. omgwtfbyobbq

    omgwtfbyobbq Member

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    Where did Musk say Level 5 with AP2.5 is possible in a couple years?
     
  7. C141medic

    C141medic Member

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    I’m a computer geek and can understand the limitation of hardware as it ages. As an example I built my computer system about 5 years ago and now it struggles to run the most current games that’s written for the most current cpu’s. I think the M3 will be in a similar situation where the tech (hardware) will be outdated within a short period of time. In my opinion, I think L5 autonomy may be more realistically feasible in the Model Y and future Tesla vehicles.
     
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  8. dm33

    dm33 Member

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    I'm curious what you buy when you purchase FSD. Are you buying a promise? What if Tesla can't provide FSD software in a reasonable amount of time. What happens to the money you spent up front. What if Tesla later decides it needs better hardware. Is Tesla obligated to upgrade your car to fulfill the promise you purchased?
     
  9. gregincal

    gregincal Active Member

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    Actually, Tesla's description of the "Full Self Driving" feature is NOT Level 5. Nowhere do they ever say the car will drive without a driver. They only say it will enable "full self-driving in almost all circumstances", and "be able to conduct short and long distance trips with no action required by the person in the driver’s seat".
     
  10. stopcrazypp

    stopcrazypp Well-Known Member

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    This is what Full Self Driving buys you (from order page):
    "This doubles the number of active cameras from four to eight, enabling full self-driving in almost all circumstances, at what we believe will be a probability of safety at least twice as good as the average human driver. The system is designed to be able to conduct short and long distance trips with no action required by the person in the driver’s seat. For Superchargers that have automatic charge connection enabled, you will not even need to plug in your vehicle.
    All you will need to do is get in and tell your car where to go. If you don’t say anything, the car will look at your calendar and take you there as the assumed destination or just home if nothing is on the calendar. Your Tesla will figure out the optimal route, navigate urban streets (even without lane markings), manage complex intersections with traffic lights, stop signs and roundabouts, and handle densely packed freeways with cars moving at high speed. When you arrive at your destination, simply step out at the entrance and your car will enter park seek mode, automatically search for a spot and park itself. A tap on your phone summons it back to you.
    Please note that Self-Driving functionality is dependent upon extensive software validation and regulatory approval, which may vary widely by jurisdiction. It is not possible to know exactly when each element of the functionality described above will be available, as this is highly dependent on local regulatory approval. Please note also that using a self-driving Tesla for car sharing and ride hailing for friends and family is fine, but doing so for revenue purposes will only be permissible on the Tesla Network, details of which will be released next year."
    Order a Model S

    Note that "in almost all circumstances" pretty much disqualifies it from SAE L5, but rather puts it at L4. L5 should be "all circumstances".

    Although Elon had suggested elsewhere that Tesla will do computing hardware upgrades as necessary and Tesla PR said similar, they don't have a legal obligation to do so from the statement in the order page. There is also no timeline promised on when it will be activated.
    References to HW upgrades (computing only, not sensor hardware; the statements are carefully worded to stress this):
    “Tesla cars that are made today have the sensor system that is necessary for full autonomy, and we think probably enough computer power to be safer than a person,” Musk said. “So, mostly it’s just a question of uploading the software. And if it turns out that the computer power, that more computer power is needed, we can easily upgrade the computer.”
    Elon Musk: Your Tesla May Need Computer Upgrade for Full Autonomy | Inverse
    "However, we still expect to achieve full self-driving capability with safety more than twice as good as the average human driver without making any hardware changes to HW 2.0. If this does not turn out to be the case, which we think is highly unlikely, we will upgrade customers to the 2.5 computer at no cost"
    Tesla has a new Autopilot ‘2.5’ hardware suite with more computing power for autonomous driving

    The money you spent upfront can be used by Tesla for any purpose (although accounting-wise it is not counted as revenue until Tesla delivers the feature).
     
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  11. UnitaryExecutive

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    I've thought about this a lot because most of the tech community thinks you need LIDAR. However, given Elon's first principles approach, I think he thinks about it like this: "humans drive with only 2 eyes, we have way more cameras and radar so we should be able to exceed a human level of safety quite easily."

    The problem in question is an age old debate that engineering teams struggle with all the time - when is a product actually ready? Is the line you draw it behaves better than a human or does it have to be several orders of magnitude better? Some would argue that not recognizing a human wearing black at night means the system isn't ready and releasing such a system is negligent. Others would argue that a human can't spot that either.

    Talk to many engineers and they'll say the current autopilot system isn't ready and Tesla should have never released it, or never released it without requiring driver attention. However, as a user of AP1, I'd rather have the system in its current form than no AP.

    Personally, I think the winner will be the company that can attract and hire the best machine learning and software talent and I think the system is capable of doing it with the right software - better than a human that is.
     
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  12. JeffK

    JeffK Well-Known Member

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    Let's remember Nvidia's new system as announced, not released. It won't be available until late 2018.
     
  13. JeffK

    JeffK Well-Known Member

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    There's plenty of redundancy to pull over to the side of the road and call for help.
     
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  14. RLC3

    RLC3 Member

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    Wouldn't it be in Nvidia's marketing interest to assert that their new hardware will be needed? And what do they mean by 'Full autonomy'? Do they mean level 5? There is a lot of loose terminology floating around, and people seem to use variations to strengthen their arguments. Tesla uses the term Full Self Drive even though it isn't defined, and almost certainly isn't level 5. But it sounds like it. Nvidia uses the term Full Autonomy without defining it, and maybe they mean level 5, but they phrase it so it sounds like it could mean whatever Tesla is calling Full Self Drive, without ever saying that directly.

    In general, I don't think we have enough information about the details to know one way or another. But it's clear that Level 5 is very hard, and that level 4 will be very useful. But there will be an uncomfortable zone where the capabilities are superhuman in 99.999% of cases but still fail in ways humans would not .001% of the time. People will be lulled into not paying attention and then be quite upset when the car does something stupid and causes an accident. This is why Elon says it has to be 10 times better than humans. It needs to be a CLEAR statistical win.
     
  15. Kanting

    Kanting Member

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  16. timk225

    timk225 Member

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    What is so great about FSD? I couldn't care less about it.
     
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  17. malcolm

    malcolm Active Member

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    So a company that has invested millions in developing a new product insists that it is superior both to its previous product model and the parallel development work of a rival.

    In other news, the Pope recommends Catholicism for all.
     
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  18. S4WRXTTCS

    S4WRXTTCS Active Member

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    That's a great article about AI that can certainly be extended to self-driving cars. Where there is a lot of hype, but it might take decades and multiple tries for it to catch on.

    But, I think we need to separate high in the sky expectations of AI versus real solvable problems where some elements of AI (like deep learning) can bring a lot to table in terms of solving the problem. It just can't be seen as the entire solution.

    FSD is a solvable problem if you think of it in terms of needing to bring various pieces together on a macro level.

    It's not a solvable problem by a single entity, and certainly not Tesla.

    It's not just the lack of redundancy
    It's not just the lack of lidar
    It's not just the lack of side radars
    It's not just the lack of vehicle to vehicle communication
    It's not just the lack of any way to keep the camera lenses clean

    Now that isn't to say that Tesla can't pull off some limited FSD with HW 2.5. It's also not to say that Tesla can't bring things to the table later on to fix omissions.

    I'm simply stating that how HW2.5 is right now there is no way to achieve L5 FSD.
     
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  19. azred

    azred Member

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    I’m certainly glad someone started a thread on this topic. It is long overdue. Though I have zero expertise on this and countless other subjects, I tend to believe the opinions of proven boy wonders like Elon Musk over posters here with meaningless screen names like azred for resumes. So I would say the answer is yes, it is possible — unless the President tweets that it is not.
     
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  20. Seattle Tom

    Seattle Tom Member

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    That’s not completely true. They explicitly say the car will operate without a driver. From the FSD description: “When you arrive at your destination, simply step out at the entrance and your car will enter park seek mode, automatically search for a spot and park itself. A tap on your phone summons it back to you.”

    Now you could argue I’m splitting hairs here, but that and other parts of the description are very much indicative of L5. As for me, I’ve got EAP on an X and am waiting for some of the advanced features like better AP and smart summon. I plan to get EAP on our 3 too. We have a curved driveway so this has a real use case for me. If they do start delivering that stuff, I’ll feel better that they can do FSD and might pony up the cash to help them! But for now I don’t see how it’s possible...
     

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