Will L5 FSD be possible with Model 3's AP 2.5 hardware?

[S4WRXTTCS]

That’s not completely true. They explicitly say the car will operate without a driver. From the FSD description: “When you arrive at your destination, simply step out at the entrance and your car will enter park seek mode, automatically search for a spot and park itself. A tap on your phone summons it back to you.”

Now you could argue I’m splitting hairs here, but that and other parts of the description are very much indicative of L5. As for me, I’ve got EAP on an X and am waiting for some of the advanced features like better AP and smart summon. I plan to get EAP on our 3 too. We have a curved driveway so this has a real use case for me. If they do start delivering that stuff, I’ll feel better that they can do FSD and might pony up the cash to help them! But for now I don’t see how it’s possible...

Then there is this from the Tesla website

"Please note also that using a self-driving Tesla for car sharing and ride hailing for friends and family is fine, but doing so for revenue purposes will only be permissible on the Tesla Network, details of which will be released next year."

How is that supposed to work if the car can't drive itself?

 

[Chewy3]

Then there is this from the Tesla website

"Please note also that using a self-driving Tesla for car sharing and ride hailing for friends and family is fine, but doing so for revenue purposes will only be permissible on the Tesla Network, details of which will be released next year."

How is that supposed to work if the car can't drive itself?

Vagueness leaves room for error. Such as picking up and dropping off from designated parking lots that have been surveyed for enhanced summon (navigate the parking lot without driver, but not necessarily a public road)

I have high hopes for FSD, but I am also a realist. I'll pay for it now, in hopes it will work within next 4-5 years (upgrade required or not). By 5 years I think it's a safe assumption Tesla will know whether or not AP 2.5 will ever be L5 capable and will either upgrade or refund owners the FSD cost.

 

[calisnow]

L5 is impossible with the current sensor suite because the current suite lacks the required redundancy to make L5 a reality.

@AmpedRealtor lacks the required foreknowledge to make that statement with any degree of rational confidence - don't be fooled kiddies. Ask him for your winning lottery numbers and stock picks if you have confidence in him.

 

[calisnow]

I’m certainly glad someone started a thread on this topic. It is long overdue. Though I have zero expertise on this and countless other subjects, I tend to believe the opinions of proven boy wonders like Elon Musk over posters here with meaningless screen names like azred for resumes. So I would say the answer is yes, it is possible — unless the President tweets that it is not.

Dude you're stealing my jokes.

 

[ModelNforNerd]

What are the requirements for sensor redundancy? I thought that would be covered by cameras and radar backing each other up. You don't necessarily need redundant cameras, but a separate technology backing those cameras up would suffice.

 

[hayesb2]

@AmpedRealtor lacks the required foreknowledge to make that statement with any degree of rational confidence - don't be fooled kiddies. Ask him for your winning lottery numbers and stock picks if you have confidence in him.

The difference is you have Nvidia, and countless other companies and other "boy wonders" who discredit Elon Musk. And given Elon's history the odds are against him. He couldn't even hold true to his promise a few months ago in July of M3 production at this time.

 

[voip-ninja]

Wouldn't it be in Nvidia's marketing interest to assert that their new hardware will be needed? And what do they mean by 'Full autonomy'? Do they mean level 5? There is a lot of loose terminology floating around, and people seem to use variations to strengthen their arguments. Tesla uses the term Full Self Drive even though it isn't defined, and almost certainly isn't level 5. But it sounds like it. Nvidia uses the term Full Autonomy without defining it, and maybe they mean level 5, but they phrase it so it sounds like it could mean whatever Tesla is calling Full Self Drive, without ever saying that directly.

In general, I don't think we have enough information about the details to know one way or another. But it's clear that Level 5 is very hard, and that level 4 will be very useful. But there will be an uncomfortable zone where the capabilities are superhuman in 99.999% of cases but still fail in ways humans would not .001% of the time. People will be lulled into not paying attention and then be quite upset when the car does something stupid and causes an accident. This is why Elon says it has to be 10 times better than humans. It needs to be a CLEAR statistical win.

I don't think they are going to be able to assert "self driving" without referencing the level the automation operates at. References like level 1-5 are there so that engineers as well as lawmakers understand what the system is supposed to deliver. Consumers then also have a realistic idea of what the solution they are buying is supposed to deliver... especially when it comes to the oh so critical "can the car drive Grandma to her doctor's appointment" or "can I tie one on and my car get me safely home"?

Nvidia might be touting their newest hardware but it would be really odd for them to bag on the previous generation and Tesla specifically as not being full autonomous capable if they thought otherwise. It would seriously damage that relationship.

Musk is a wonder boy but he also does have a history of writing checks with his mouth that Tesla can't cash.

We'll see, but personally I think that limited park/summon and limited self driving in good weather with the driver behind the wheel, ready to take over at a moment's notice" is the best we will get out of the current hardware.

 

[gregincal]

That’s not completely true. They explicitly say the car will operate without a driver. From the FSD description: “When you arrive at your destination, simply step out at the entrance and your car will enter park seek mode, automatically search for a spot and park itself. A tap on your phone summons it back to you.”

Now you could argue I’m splitting hairs here, but that and other parts of the description are very much indicative of L5. As for me, I’ve got EAP on an X and am waiting for some of the advanced features like better AP and smart summon. I plan to get EAP on our 3 too. We have a curved driveway so this has a real use case for me. If they do start delivering that stuff, I’ll feel better that they can do FSD and might pony up the cash to help them! But for now I don’t see how it’s possible...

Well, you could argue that it can already drive itself, that’s what summons is, after all. They don’t really specify under what conditions it will find a parking place.

 

[EinSV]

I believe that Tesla will do what they did with AP1 -- prove the naysayers wrong and provide a very capable system. With HW2.5, I believe this will translate into a robust and safe self-driving capability. Whether it meets Level 5 or not is a side issue as far as I'm concerned -- self driving capability can be extremely useful and prevent many accidents without reaching Level 5.

 

[S4WRXTTCS]

@AmpedRealtor lacks the required foreknowledge to make that statement with any degree of rational confidence - don't be fooled kiddies. Ask him for your winning lottery numbers and stock picks if you have confidence in him.

It would be if AmpedRealtor just pulled that out of thin air.

But, he didn't.

It's pretty much what every expert has been saying. I don't think Tesla even denies this since the predominant thing that needs redundancy is the Drive PX2.

Tesla has already added some degree of redundancy to HW 2.5 from what HW 2.0 had.

 

[S4WRXTTCS]

Vagueness leaves room for error. Such as picking up and dropping off from designated parking lots that have been surveyed for enhanced summon (navigate the parking lot without driver, but not necessarily a public road)

I have high hopes for FSD, but I am also a realist. I'll pay for it now, in hopes it will work within next 4-5 years (upgrade required or not). By 5 years I think it's a safe assumption Tesla will know whether or not AP 2.5 will ever be L5 capable and will either upgrade or refund owners the FSD cost.

There was no vagueness in the presentation of it when Elon talked about summoning your car from across the country.

The biggest disaster of FSD is not the technology in HW2/HW2.5, but the expectations that Elon set for it.

You'd think people would have realistic expectations, and understand the Elon exaggerates. That they'd be like you where they would be happy with a little FSD. It's not priced anywhere close to what the market would command for FSD.

As to me I held off on upgrading from AP1 to AP? until Tesla at least reaches Level 3. I think that's possible with a little added redundancy that HW 2.5 might have (we don't have enough details yet), and with side corners radars to augment the side cameras. There are already callouts in the diagnostics for corner radars.

So I don't think the Engineers at Tesla are under any delusions.

 

[voip-ninja]

There was no vagueness in the presentation of it when Elon talked about summoning your car from across the country.

The biggest disaster of FSD is not the technology in HW2/HW2.5, but the expectations that Elon set for it.

You'd think people would have realistic expectations, and understand the Elon exaggerates. That they'd be like you where they would be happy with a little FSD. It's not priced anywhere close to what the market would command for FSD.

As to me I held off on upgrading from AP1 to AP? until Tesla at least reaches Level 3. I think that's possible with a little added redundancy that HW 2.5 might have (we don't have enough details yet), and with side radar to augment the side cameras. There are already callouts in the diagnostics for corner radars.

So I don't think the Engineers at Tesla are under any delusions.

We know that the engineers at Tesla are not under any delusions because he is making statements and then they are quitting.

Elon being a billionaire wonder-boy can do these kinds of things. Regular engineers and executives can have their reputations ruined when they aren't able to turn his exaggerated statements into reality;

Tesla Autopilot Software Head Quits After Less Than 6 Months

 

[S4WRXTTCS]

We know that the engineers at Tesla are not under any delusions because he is making statements and then they are quitting.

Elon being a billionaire wonder-boy can do these kinds of things. Regular engineers and executives can have their reputations ruined when they aren't able to turn his exaggerated statements into reality;

Tesla Autopilot Software Head Quits After Less Than 6 Months

Hopefully Elon got the message, and things are now going the right direction.

Or maybe that's wishful thinking.

I'm finding it impossible to determine if Elon has lost his mind with FSD, or if all this stuff won't eventually come together. Where we feel a bit silly for all the drama we experienced from it. Heck I rate FSD as one of three things that happened in 2016 that signaled the end of reality as I knew it, and now I'm in some alternative reality that is punishment for something I must have done wrong in my life. I want to go home, but I don't know where that is now.

 

[davidc18]

I will be holding off on our model 3 purchase until the car actually exceeds AP 1.0.

 

[ModelNforNerd]

I will be holding off on our model 3 purchase until the car actually exceeds AP 1.0.

Honestly, you're still safe to purchase the car. By the time you actually GET the car.................

 

[stopcrazypp]

That’s not completely true. They explicitly say the car will operate without a driver. From the FSD description: “When you arrive at your destination, simply step out at the entrance and your car will enter park seek mode, automatically search for a spot and park itself. A tap on your phone summons it back to you.”

Now you could argue I’m splitting hairs here, but that and other parts of the description are very much indicative of L5. As for me, I’ve got EAP on an X and am waiting for some of the advanced features like better AP and smart summon. I plan to get EAP on our 3 too. We have a curved driveway so this has a real use case for me. If they do start delivering that stuff, I’ll feel better that they can do FSD and might pony up the cash to help them! But for now I don’t see how it’s possible...

Being able to be driverless in only specific situations (in this case when seeking a parking spot) is not L5. L5 requires the car to be capable of being driverless in all situations.

 

[voip-ninja]

Being able to be driverless in only specific situations (in this case when seeking a parking spot) is not L5. L5 requires the car to be capable of being driverless in all situations.

Elon Musk has referred to 2.5 AP being capable of "taxicab" type autonomy multiple times. To me, "taxicab mode" is synonymous with L5 AP.

 

[stopcrazypp]

Then there is this from the Tesla website

"Please note also that using a self-driving Tesla for car sharing and ride hailing for friends and family is fine, but doing so for revenue purposes will only be permissible on the Tesla Network, details of which will be released next year."

How is that supposed to work if the car can't drive itself?

The criteria for L5 is not simply driverless. It is driverless in all conditions. For example, that quoted statement does not exclude a L4 system (for example, Tesla network being limited to certain geofenced areas AKA L4).

 

[stopcrazypp]

Elon Musk has referred to 2.5 AP being capable of "taxicab" type autonomy multiple times. To me, "taxicab mode" is synonymous with L5 AP.

Like I said elsewhere. You can do a "taxicab mode" in a geofenced area and this would only be L4. There are already ones like this in college campuses for a while and also a couple of trials are like this.

Here's Ford's:
“When we talk about level 4 autonomy, it’s fully autonomous within a geofence, so within an area where we have a defined high definition map,”
Ford's Self-Driving Cars Will Live Inside Urban "Geofences' | Inverse

L5 is a much higher standard: it would be driverless capable in all locations.

Side note: if that is your true criteria, you perhaps need to change your poll to say "Will L4/L5 FSD be possible..."

 

[voip-ninja]

Like I said elsewhere. You can do a "taxicab mode" in a geofenced area and this would only be L4. There are already ones like this in college campuses for a while and also a couple of trials are like this.

Here's Ford's:
“When we talk about level 4 autonomy, it’s fully autonomous within a geofence, so within an area where we have a defined high definition map,”
Ford's Self-Driving Cars Will Live Inside Urban "Geofences' | Inverse

L5 is a much higher standard: it would be driverless capable in all locations.

Side note: if that is your true criteria, you perhaps need to change your poll to say "Will L4/L5 FSD be possible..."

Personally I don't think that geofencing small areas like college campuses or shopping malls for FSD meshes with Musk's numerous statements on self driving.

I also don't think that the hardware on the Tesla is capable of L4 within a geo-fenced area in all weather conditions.

L4 with geofencing is a crutch for regular drivers and, in my opinion, not particularly useful at all which is why I believe that most manufacturers are planning on skipping over it entirely.