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Will Model 3 reservations have a noticeable impact on new car sales for the next 2yrs

Discussion in 'Model 3' started by ratsbew, Feb 11, 2016.

  1. ratsbew

    ratsbew Member

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    Will people holding out for Model 3 have a noticeable impact on new car sales between now and its release at the end of 2017?

    Will buyers hold on to their old cars an extra year or two so that they can have Model 3?
     
  2. bigbear

    bigbear Member

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    That's what I'm doing, if my car can make it that long.
     
  3. Bimbels

    Bimbels GoldMember

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    It will be interesting. My husband and I both have (had) old cars. His was a 2002 and we sold it this year and bought a Model S. The goal for the past year or so is for my 2007 to last until I get my Model 3. I am not considering any other car than a Tesla. If the M3 doesn't work out, I will likely get an S or X. If there was no such thing as Tesla, I would probably be buying something else.
     
  4. rickgt

    rickgt Enthusiast owner/member

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    I think you are right... it's a clever marketing maneuver to freeze the buyers --- keep them from buying your competition --- while you get pre-orders for your product. Smart marketing has always been Elon's suit. sucking the buyers out of the market will focus more attention on Tesla, and hurt the competition.
     
  5. ratsbew

    ratsbew Member

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    The reservations are also happening during prime-time of tax refund season. For the target market, this could make a big difference in cash on hand to make the deposit.
     
  6. gregincal

    gregincal Active Member

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    Maybe electric cars. It won't even be a blip in overall car sales.
     
  7. rdalcanto

    rdalcanto Member

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    I completely disagree. There are over 100,000 Model S vehicles on the road. Most of us know several people who want one, but can't afford one. Most drive ICE cars. If just 2 of those people reserve a Model 3 in April, that is 200,000 reservations (personally I know a lot more than 2 people that will be putting a deposit ASAP). After a year, that number can easily be over 500,000. BMW and Audi are going to notice if more than 200,000 car buyers in the 40-60k range are waiting for a model 3. :)
     
  8. TEG

    TEG TMC Moderator

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    #8 TEG, Feb 11, 2016
    Last edited: Feb 11, 2016
    Once I put my deposit down, I will be far less likely to look seriously at LEAF Gen 2 or Chevy Bolt as I wait for my TM3.

    - - - Updated - - -

    There are 2 reasons why I never got serious about getting a Model S:
    #1: More $ than I was willing / able to spend.
    #2: Too big for my liking.

    Model 3 should address both of those for me. I suspect it will for many others as well.
     
  9. aronth5

    aronth5 Long Time Follower

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    Agree with both reasons.
    Size is especially an issue in other countries where many roads are narrow.
     
  10. Red Sage

    Red Sage The Cybernetic Samurai

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    I fully expect that those who would ordinarily be shopping for Camry, Accord, Fusion, Altima, Malibu, Sonata, or Optima will (if given the opportunity) stop by a Tesla Store on a whim to test drive the Model ≡. And the result will be that Toyota, Honda, Ford, Nissan, Chevrolet, Hyundai, and Kia dealerships will see that their bread-and-butter vehicles will take quite a bit longer to move off the lot than they are used to seeing. They'll blame it on the economy... Until they realize how quickly sales are increasing for Tesla Motors vehicles.

    Just as people who typically would not have purchased anything beyond the 40,000-to-$50,000 range chose to go up-market to the Model S... Those who would typically only spend in the $20,000-to-$25,000 range will choose to go up-market to the Model ≡. BMW, Cadillac, AUDI, Lexus, Infiniti, Jaguar, and Mercedes-Benz may not worry too much about 'losing' those sales... Until they realize it is also taking a whole lot longer than expected to move 3-Series, ATS, A4, IS, Q60, XE, and C-Class off of dealer lots.

    One thing that is interesting is that while the average sale price for a new car is over $31,000 currently, most new cars sold in the US are around $22,000. I believe that if Tesla Motors is able to cut their internal cost to below $100 per kWh, they will be able to offer a 60 kWh capacity vehicle for about $25,000. That could happen if a 60 kWh battery pack had an internal cost between $5,000 and $6,250. But those who are hoping for a sub-$15,000 car from Tesla Motors will remain disappointed for the duration.
     
  11. Twiglett

    Twiglett Single pedal driver

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    Fully onboard with this. Except I know I was never in the market for gen2 Leaf, I'm done with local dealers who know next to nothing about the car.
    After several test drives of the Model S, it was just too big.
     
  12. Bimbels

    Bimbels GoldMember

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    I agree. Also, I believe the Model 3 launch will be unlike any other car. My husband and I are among those who "bought up" - we are both far too practical to spend money on a typical "luxury" sedan. Plus we weren't interested in and have never had a huge car. But Model S was different - compelling because the technological advances made it much more than just a car. Sort of like the iPhone was more than just a phone.

    So we took the leap. And with the price point of the M3, I expect others will too. In droves.
     
  13. Az_Rael

    Az_Rael Active Member

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    I think it will only noticeably affect sales of EV's and possibly very small blips on the entry level luxury guys' radars. The overall car market is way too huge. Doesn't GM sell as many cars in a month as Tesla does in a year? And that is just GM.
     
  14. larmor

    larmor Member

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    In prior CCs it was mentioned that with high volume, to get profit from M3 they really just need the battery at the right price. That is why they were so cagey about a $/kwh. They didn't feel that they should share their business plan with the world, just like starbucks doesn't tell us how much they spend on beans (or maybe they do?).
     
  15. S3XY

    S3XY Member

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    I fall into the entry level luxury category. I'm driving an '06 TL and was thinking of getting a '16 TLX. Once I caught wind of the Model 3 I decided to hold off. Now I'm almost certainly getting the M3. Unless it turns out to be a weirdmobile, which I highly doubt, I will be plunking down my $1k on April 1st (nearest store is 180 miles away).
     
  16. Red Sage

    Red Sage The Cybernetic Samurai

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    The problem with this point of view is that it overlooks that a company such as General Motors, which is composed of three main brands in the US alone, plus GMC, doesn't just outsell Tesla Motors by that margin, but a whole lot of other companies in the segment. It also overlooks that the Model S, for three calendar years straight 2013-2015, has outsold all of its direct competitors in the US, except the Mercedes-Benz S-Class, which reclaimed the throne temporarily during 2014, only to fall back into second place in 2015, as they were in 2013. In 2015, while flagship vehicles from Lexus, BMW, Infiniti, AUDI, Jaguar, and Mercedes-Benz all saw their sales drop, the Model S sales went up, and widened the margin between itself and the others.

    This was not a 'small blip' in the slightest, because it is what led NADA and their membership of 'independent franchised dealerships' to notice in the first half of 2013 that something was wrong. It wasn't just the economy, people were purposefully choosing to wait three months to get a car they ordered from Tesla Motors, instead of choosing to go buy cars off the dealership lots or showrooms. Those who convinced themselves this was 'just a fad' and that it would 'eventually die down' have a baker's dozen of egg on their face. Much the same will happen with Model ≡. Heck, it's gonna happen with Model X first -- just watch.

    Had the Model S been a low selling, relative failure, perhaps moving as few cars as Maserati, or half as many as Porsche Panamera, everything would have been fine. All the sudden interest in imposing bans to Tesla Motors' chosen selling method would not have been proposed. Their stock would have not crossed $40.00 and Corey Johnson and Jim Cramer would be breaking their arms patting themselves on the back while going hoarse as they proclaimed, "See? I told you so!"

    Yes, the overall market is pretty darned spectacularly huge. There were over 17,000,000 vehicles sold in the United States during 2015. But there are key market segments that are strong indicators. The price range that the Model ≡ will occupy is one of them. It is the part of the market that everyone hopes their ordinary, everyday Customers will someday grow into. Hence, why General Motors has cars from all three of its passenger vehicle segments (Chevrolet, Buick, and Cadillac) competing against each other in it. Same thing for Honda & Acura, Ford and Lincoln, Volkswagen and AUDI, Toyota and Lexus...

    Basically, $35,000 is the crossroads of a whole plethora of marques. So, yes, a newcomer such as Tesla Motors bringing its cars to this segment will make very visible waves in a segment of cars that exists solely for profit making for their respective manufacturers, who gussy up old tech in the finest makeup, sexiest clothing, and most vibrant perfume they can find to sell old wares as something new, different, and luxurious -- at a premium -- set off by a dog & pony show, a fireworks display, and lots of smoke & mirrors for dazzling effect. Every percentage point of market share they lose to Tesla Motors will be felt, deep in the bottom line, and they'll likely protest it was a blow below the belt.
     
  17. Josh the German

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    We will keep our Italian cars. They are quite new. The Lancia was built in 2012, the Alfa Romeo is from 2014. The coupe from Fiat is quite old (1994) and bought just for fun and to become a youngtimer and at least an oldtimer. Up to now we won't sell any of our Italian cars because they are a stylish statement of a past age. We have to keep them to show our grandchildren how the "fuel to noise converters" worked in the past. Maybe we will build an own museum for them :biggrin:.

    In the end we are really happy to end our steam-engine age and have chosen Tesla and only Tesla ... :smile::cool:

    Best regards from Germany

    Josh
     
  18. Cattledog

    Cattledog Active Member

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    Yes - It will impact overall car sales in the entry luxury segment. And yes it will impact Model S and X sales, driving them up as brand awareness increases. Some people new to Tesla with disposable income simply won't wait for the 3 and will order an S or X.
     
  19. Twiglett

    Twiglett Single pedal driver

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    Wow, you have a 2012 Lancia that still runs? I'm impressed.
    :)
     
  20. mistermatt

    mistermatt Member

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    I know I will limp along with my current car (if it makes it) or buy a cheap used car to bridge the gap until I get the call to pick-up my m3 in 2017. :love:
     

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