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Will Model 3 reservations have a noticeable impact on new car sales for the next 2yrs

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I have an excuse, in late 2017/early 2018 is (probably) when my daughter will actually need a car, and our Prius c will make a perfect hand me down. Normally I'd drive it for 4-5 more years (its a 2012, 55K miles right now) but it will be paid off ahead of the m3 arrival date which will be perfect.

I know I will limp along with my current car (if it makes it) or buy a cheap used car to bridge the gap until I get the call to pick-up my m3 in 2017. :love:
 
I have an excuse, in late 2017/early 2018 is (probably) when my daughter will actually need a car, and our Prius c will make a perfect hand me down. Normally I'd drive it for 4-5 more years (its a 2012, 55K miles right now) but it will be paid off ahead of the m3 arrival date which will be perfect.

I am driving my 2008 mazda with 201,000 km on it. Unfortunately work and commuting has me travelling about 45,000km a year; not sure its got another 90,000 in it but my fingers will be crossed and my oil changes will be often.
 
Currently have a 2014 Qx60 and 2015 Rouge. The lease for the Qx60 will be up mid 2017. Keeping the rouge and will purchase the Model 3. Like most buyers once i see it and it isn't a "weirdmobile" I will happily drop the $1000 as Short Hills is about 20/40 mins from me!
 
It's exactly what I'm doing with my 2002 Camry with 266,800 miles on it. I'm hanging on to it until my Model 3 takes it's place in my garage. I've been waiting for this for quite a while. Long enough that, my ORIGINAL "End of Camry plan" was waiting for the Volt to come out. Then I learned about Tesla and that changed ALL my automotive plans.
 
I have a 94 Civic with a rebuilt title and over 200k miles on it. I've been waiting to replace it with the $35k Tesla at least since 2013 and now I'm in a position to probably get a few extra options too. I'll be reserving in-store on the 31st, as long as the bureaucrats in Utah will let me. I've replaced pretty much everything but the transmission and the engine on my Civic; fingers crossed those hang in there until late 2017/early 2018.
 
I have an excuse, in late 2017/early 2018 is (probably) when my daughter will actually need a car, and our Prius c will make a perfect hand me down. Normally I'd drive it for 4-5 more years (its a 2012, 55K miles right now) but it will be paid off ahead of the m3 arrival date which will be perfect.
I've got the same model and year as you. I've accelerated my payments (the only good thing about my debt situation) and should have it paid off either this month or next. I would like to say that the money saved from not having a payment would go towards an investment vehicle or savings for the Model 3, but I'm afraid my other momentous debts will keep that from happening (solar PV, heat pump, other CC debt).
 
NAADA is estimating 17.5 million car sales this year, so no.

And that's just North America. Somebody above made the laughable statement that GM sells more cars in a month than Tesla sells in a year. The truth is that Gm sells almost as many Buicks, in China, in a week, than Tesla sold total last year. GM, Toyota and VW together sell about as many cars every hour as Tesla did last year.

It is a good thing for Tesla that the market is so big, but to answer your question; No.
 
The key word in the query is, to me, 'noticeable'. It seems the detractors are keying in on 'impact' instead. What Tesla Motors does over the next two years will be NOTICED, just as has been what they've done the past 3-1/2 years. And the fact that it is noticed, will definitely have an IMPACT on what others choose to sell. And that is the entire point of the exercise.
 
The key word in the query is, to me, 'noticeable'. It seems the detractors are keying in on 'impact' instead. .

How does someone saying that there will be no noticeable impact in their opinion mean that they are a detractor? It is a big world out there with hundreds of millions of cars on the road. It will take a long time for Tesla to have a noticeable impact. I think that will happen once they are moving 500k a year. Remember, as they are doing this, the world is not standing still. There are new BEV's/PHEV's coming to market each year.
 
The problem with this point of view is that it overlooks that a company such as General Motors, which is composed of three main brands in the US alone, plus GMC, doesn't just outsell Tesla Motors by that margin, but a whole lot of other companies in the segment. It also overlooks that the Model S, for three calendar years straight 2013-2015, has outsold all of its direct competitors in the US, except the Mercedes-Benz S-Class, which reclaimed the throne temporarily during 2014, only to fall back into second place in 2015, as they were in 2013. In 2015, while flagship vehicles from Lexus, BMW, Infiniti, AUDI, Jaguar, and Mercedes-Benz all saw their sales drop, the Model S sales went up, and widened the margin between itself and the others.

This was not a 'small blip' in the slightest, because it is what led NADA and their membership of 'independent franchised dealerships' to notice in the first half of 2013 that something was wrong. It wasn't just the economy, people were purposefully choosing to wait three months to get a car they ordered from Tesla Motors, instead of choosing to go buy cars off the dealership lots or showrooms. Those who convinced themselves this was 'just a fad' and that it would 'eventually die down' have a baker's dozen of egg on their face. Much the same will happen with Model ≡. Heck, it's gonna happen with Model X first -- just watch.

Had the Model S been a low selling, relative failure, perhaps moving as few cars as Maserati, or half as many as Porsche Panamera, everything would have been fine. All the sudden interest in imposing bans to Tesla Motors' chosen selling method would not have been proposed. Their stock would have not crossed $40.00 and Corey Johnson and Jim Cramer would be breaking their arms patting themselves on the back while going hoarse as they proclaimed, "See? I told you so!"

Yes, the overall market is pretty darned spectacularly huge. There were over 17,000,000 vehicles sold in the United States during 2015. But there are key market segments that are strong indicators. The price range that the Model ≡ will occupy is one of them. It is the part of the market that everyone hopes their ordinary, everyday Customers will someday grow into. Hence, why General Motors has cars from all three of its passenger vehicle segments (Chevrolet, Buick, and Cadillac) competing against each other in it. Same thing for Honda & Acura, Ford and Lincoln, Volkswagen and AUDI, Toyota and Lexus...

Basically, $35,000 is the crossroads of a whole plethora of marques. So, yes, a newcomer such as Tesla Motors bringing its cars to this segment will make very visible waves in a segment of cars that exists solely for profit making for their respective manufacturers, who gussy up old tech in the finest makeup, sexiest clothing, and most vibrant perfume they can find to sell old wares as something new, different, and luxurious -- at a premium -- set off by a dog & pony show, a fireworks display, and lots of smoke & mirrors for dazzling effect. Every percentage point of market share they lose to Tesla Motors will be felt, deep in the bottom line, and they'll likely protest it was a blow below the belt.
Great post RS!
 
What kind of impact did the demise of Hummer, Saab, Pontiac, Saturn, Mercury have? Their volume was far greater than Tesla. Unless you were a factory worker or dealer, not much. The auto industry is pretty elastic. Which is why GM should have been allowed to fail. It's not like the demand for their cars would have disappeared, it would have shifted to other companies. That's how the free market is supposed to work. I think. To bad Tesla is not being allowed to compete in the free market.
 
How does someone saying that there will be no noticeable impact in their opinion mean that they are a detractor?
Dude. I have a vocabulary and stuff. I like to exercise it from time-to-time in my writing. I am what some may term an Over-the-Top Optimistic Tesla Motors Certified Apologist Fanboy. I tend to look at everything the company does in the best possible light. Mostly because I want to believe they will do well. But also because there is SO much negative press that places everything they do in the deepest, darkest, conceivable dungeon of absolute doom and terminal darkness. So, yeah... From my point of view, presuming that anything that Tesla Motors does within the next two years is of no consequence is the position of a 'detractor'. I have a different opinion, which I hope to have fully illuminated in the course of this discussion. Remember, there have been ANALysts, pundits, $#0r+s, Bears, Naysayers, and various other talking heads that claimed EVERYTHING that has already been accomplished by Tesla Motors was impossible at best and a pipe dream at worst. Yet no one ever holds them to task for being WRONG. Why should I give them the benefit of the doubt now, regarding Tesla's future?
 
There are those of us who love our Teslas, believe that what Tesla is doing is very important, believe it will have an impact in the future and Tesla will continue to succeed, yet still accept the reality that the EV market will be a very very small segment of the overall car market for quite a while.
 
In the next two years there will be zero noticeable impact on top ten or twenty cars.
In a world of 7.5 billion people... wherein perhaps 4.5 billion are Female... if only one of them is 'the one' for me... then she statistically does not exist.

;-)

However, if Tesla Motors is able to manufacture and sell substantially more than 200,000 units in the United States, they will certainly displace someone from the top 25 sales here. They'll have to cross 300,000 to crack the top ten.

Worldwide, they need to sell over 450,000 to get in the top 25 vehicles. And they'd have to be over 650,000 units to get into the top ten.

So yeah, that isn't going to happen in the next two years. My point is that it doesn't have to, as long as any Tesla Motors product substantially defeats any ICE vehicle in class, and multiple other ICE vehicles in lower price ranges in sales. That will prove there is demand for their products that displaces ICE, and that will be noticed.

2015 Year End U.S. Vehicle Sales Rankings - Top 288 Best-Selling Vehicles In America - Every Vehicle Ranked - GOOD CAR BAD CAR

Focus2move| World Best Selling Car in the 2015 - All data

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There are those of us who love our Teslas, believe that what Tesla is doing is very important, believe it will have an impact in the future and Tesla will continue to succeed, yet still accept the reality that the EV market will be a very very small segment of the overall car market for quite a while.
That is just fine. At the same time, I rather disagree with those who feel that all Tesla Motors can ever hope to capture is 'the EV market' and naught more. It's not about Tesla getting 100% of the EV market. They'd much rather get 1/3rd of the 30% of the entire new vehicle market worldwide, that will produce EVs. That will take a while.
 
There are so many posts that use the words Tesla and "EV market" in the same sentence.
I do not think it means what you think it means (apologies to Vissini)

Tesla isn't competing in the EV market, its competing in the overall car market and its taking market share from incumbent ICE manufacturers not other BEVs
BMW, Audi etc are acting unconcerned that Model S is leaving their top range cars in the dust, but they must be extremely concerned if the Model 3 does the same to them in their core market.
So I would expect them to counter it now and market to all those with leases that will expire as the Model 3 becomes available.
If they don't there is a good chance that their market share will be lost to Tesla