Will My New Model 3 Be Worth The Same As A Honda Civic In 6 Years?

[heysteveh]

I just sold my 2013 Mercedes C250 Sedan and bought a new Model 3 SR+ last week. My Mercedes was 6 years old and originally stickered at $42,935. I sold it for $10,000. This got me to thinking so I decided to compare the value of my 6 year-old Mercedes with a 6 year-old Honda Civic EX-L Sedan using the same mileage, condition, etc. I have uploaded copies of the online appraisals for these two cars from Edmunds TMV website. Bottom Line: My $42,000 Mercedes had a trade-in value of $8,513 and the Civic had a trade-in value of $8,334. I consider my new Model 3 to be comparable to the Mercedes C250 I just sold.

So the question of the day: Will my 2019 Tesla Model 3 SR+ be worth the same as a nice Honda Civic EX Sedan in 6 years? Why, or why not?

 

[heysteveh]

The link to the Mercedes appraisal doesn't appear to be working so here it is again:

 

[jebinc]

I just sold my 2013 Mercedes C250 Sedan and bought a new Model 3 SR+ last week. My Mercedes was 6 years old and originally stickered at $42,935. I sold it for $10,000. This got me to thinking so I decided to compare the value of my 6 year-old Mercedes with a 6 year-old Honda Civic EX-L Sedan using the same mileage, condition, etc. I have uploaded copies of the online appraisals for these two cars from Edmunds TMV website. Bottom Line: My $42,000 Mercedes had a trade-in value of $8,513 and the Civic had a trade-in value of $8,334. I consider my new Model 3 to be comparable to the Mercedes C250 I just sold.View attachment 422386 View attachment 422387

So the question of the day: Will my 2019 Tesla Model 3 SR+ be worth the same as a nice Honda Civic EX Sedan in 6 years? Why, or why not?

Let me first say, I am picking up my new M3 LR AWD, w/FSD tomorrow ($59,000).... Given the rapid change of technology, rapid growth of Tesla, poor paint (water based due to CA law), and many new EV competitors (Major automotive companies, Rivian, others) our 2019 Tesla's won't be worth very much in six years... maybe not much in three years... But, we do enjoy all the "benefits" of being "early adopters"....

 

[Fred42]

I just sold my 2013 Mercedes C250 Sedan and bought a new Model 3 SR+ last week. My Mercedes was 6 years old and originally stickered at $42,935. I sold it for $10,000. This got me to thinking so I decided to compare the value of my 6 year-old Mercedes with a 6 year-old Honda Civic EX-L Sedan using the same mileage, condition, etc. I have uploaded copies of the online appraisals for these two cars from Edmunds TMV website. Bottom Line: My $42,000 Mercedes had a trade-in value of $8,513 and the Civic had a trade-in value of $8,334. I consider my new Model 3 to be comparable to the Mercedes C250 I just sold.View attachment 422386 View attachment 422387

So the question of the day: Will my 2019 Tesla Model 3 SR+ be worth the same as a nice Honda Civic EX Sedan in 6 years? Why, or why not?

Someone posted a picture on this forum of a 3 with Honda Civic badging on the rear. If you're worried, you could try that.

 

[heysteveh]

Someone posted a picture on this forum of a 3 with Honda Civic badging on the rear. If you're worried, you could try that.

LOL, I'm not worried, just curious what others think. My personal opinion is that the Model 3 will depreciate less then my Mercedes did IF all the hype about low maintenance for a Tesla proves to be true. I think the main reason German cars depreciate more then Honda's and Toyota's is due to high ongoing repair/maintenance costs as they get older.

 

[T3SLAROD]

It'll be worth much more than you think. As the prices of new Gen Model 3's rise the older Gen will be more affordable and with not many on the road, they'll be worth a lot more. Just on Tesla's used inventory page, the value has not dropped by much

 

[Saghost]

That's a real crystal ball question, because I think world events will drive the answer, especially EV adoption rates.

If EV adoption continues to build at the current rate of acceleration, that civic isn't going to find anyone who really wants to buy it in six years, because of the ICE and cost of fuel and maintenance - all the folks that would normally buy then will be shopping for used EVs instead, with predictable effects on resale values.

Tesla delivering on the FSD promise will also radically tilt the scales - and again in favor of the 3.

 

[Leafdriver333]

The reason 6 y.o. MB is worth so little is because of the high maintenance cost of aged (luxury) German cars.
Honda cars are cheap to maintain. Hence, the higher residual after 6 years.
Model 3 will require even less maintenance and that is EV advantage.
However, the battery keeps degrading. That is the biggest concern on used EV's.
But Model 3's are still so young and we don't know what % of capacity it will hold after 6 years.
However, Model 3 comes with 8 year 120K mile battery warranty.
So even the people who buy the 6 year old Model 3 will have 2 years of warranty left as long as it has less than 120K miles.
120K miles divided by 8 years = 15000 miles/year.
After 6 years if you are selling your Model 3 with 90K or less miles and still have more than 80% battery capacity (about 190 miles for SR+),
it will be a better buy than even current LEAF with 150 mile range.
But in 6 years who knows what the average EV ranges will be for a $25K EV.

If it was today we have this question ....
Model 3 with 90K miles on odometer with 190 mile range.
No warranty other than the 2 year battery warranty.

I would buy it for $15000 no problem, considering 1st Gen LEAF with 65 mile range are selling for $10K.

 

[Uncle Paul]

Some believe that if Tesla can roll out autopilot self driving for livery (Driverless Uber) service, that the cars should have far higher resale value. This is because they would then become revenue producing assets, and worth significantly more than cars with no self driving.

 

[glide]

It will be worth about as much as your Honda.

Unless they suddenly cease making improvements on build quality, technology, and general refreshes.

Cars are a depreciating asset no matter what Elon says.

 

[TampaRich]

The addition of Beach Buggy Racing just appreciated your car by about $14.

 

[MXWing]

I’d rather buy a used civic over a used Mercedes.

I’d tether buy a used Model 3 over a used civic.

That’s your answer pretty much.

 

[Dana1]

I just sold my 2013 Mercedes C250 Sedan and bought a new Model 3 SR+ last week. My Mercedes was 6 years old and originally stickered at $42,935. I sold it for $10,000. This got me to thinking so I decided to compare the value of my 6 year-old Mercedes with a 6 year-old Honda Civic EX-L Sedan using the same mileage, condition, etc. I have uploaded copies of the online appraisals for these two cars from Edmunds TMV website. Bottom Line: My $42,000 Mercedes had a trade-in value of $8,513 and the Civic had a trade-in value of $8,334. I consider my new Model 3 to be comparable to the Mercedes C250 I just sold.View attachment 422386 View attachment 422387

So the question of the day: Will my 2019 Tesla Model 3 SR+ be worth the same as a nice Honda Civic EX Sedan in 6 years? Why, or why not?

No one has crystal ball.

 

[SabrToothSqrl]

If my for sale thread is any indication, at 6 months it’s worthless... hate to see 6 years...

The good news is, in 6 years you’ll have more people buying EVs since they are so inexpensive, and with a thousand less moving parts, should be more reliable than... well, not a civic, but you get the idea.

 

[animorph]

The Tesla Model 3 will be a nice affordable used car at 6 years old. New electrics will still be a little pricey then, but hopefully very popular. The used 3 should be a fantastic entry to electric cars at an affordable price, and really the only choice at that age other than X and S. I think lots of people would like a Model 3 at $20k. If it's still got 300k miles left out of its 500k miles design life (still to be seen), it's be a better deal than any ICE car. The only question in my mind is if the battery will hold up long enough to deliver anywhere close to 500k miles at 15k miles/year. In 6 years I don't think the battery will be an issue yet.

 

[OCR1]

Teslas have held their value pretty well over the years. But as for what the Model 3 will be worth in six years - who knows.

I will predict that a Model 3 LR RWD, black, 18” wheels without AP or FSD will depreciate less as a percentage than a Performance Model 3 with paint/wheel upgrades and FSD. Options depreciate down to almost nothing in the used market. So if you want your car to hold it’s value best go for a stripped down model. If that doesn’t suit you then just know that whatever you pay for options will be almost a complete loss on resale.

 

[Saghost]

Teslas have held their value pretty well over the years. But as for what the Model 3 will be worth in six years - who knows.

I will predict that a Model 3 LR RWD, black, 18” wheels without AP or FSD will depreciate less as a percentage than a Performance Model 3 with paint/wheel upgrades and FSD. Options depreciate down to almost nothing in the used market. So if you want your car to hold it’s value best go for a stripped down model. If that doesn’t suit you then just know that whatever you pay for options will be almost a complete loss on resale.

There are options and then there are options.

What you say is true - the market generally doesn't attach much value to options.

However, I expect things like AWD and FSD to be exceptions to that - big things that change how the car operates usually are from what I've seen.

Paint and wheel upgrades will likely follow the usual route and be worth almost nothing.

 

[rpat]

You've picked one of the best resale cars (civic) and one of the worst (C250).

No one wants a C250. The average 2013 42k car should be worth a bit more.

The average civic-like compact sedan from ford/gm/nissan/kia will be worth less

Maintenance of the civic will be cheap. Maintenance of the C250 won't be.

Drive train maintenance of the Tesla should be a lot less than other luxury cars -- with the battery being a high risk factor... I expect battery to depreciate at a high rate and depreciation of the car overall will depend on how they hold up & how much they cost to replace.

Bodywork, electronics cost a ton more to fix...So that will also be an issue with out of warranty Teslas.
Those types of unknown costs haven't really affect Porsche values much though... So it really depends on how desirable the car will be relative to newer cars.

 

[trm2]

For cars out of their basic warranty (Honda 3 yr, Tesla 4 yr, Mercedes 4 yr, BMW 4 yr, etc) I would take the Honda. I don't want to own a Tesla out of warranty. While I wouldn't actually buy either at 6 years old, I would place more value on the Honda.

P.S. I know I'll get a lot of disagrees.

 

[SSedan]

The Tesla Model 3 will be a nice affordable used car at 6 years old. New electrics will still be a little pricey then, but hopefully very popular. The used 3 should be a fantastic entry to electric cars at an affordable price, and really the only choice at that age other than X and S. I think lots of people would like a Model 3 at $20k. If it's still got 300k miles left out of its 500k miles design life (still to be seen), it's be a better deal than any ICE car. The only question in my mind is if the battery will hold up long enough to deliver anywhere close to 500k miles at 15k miles/year. In 6 years I don't think the battery will be an issue yet.

People your the 500k thing like it is some huge departure, ICE are designed for several hundred thousand miles too, there are a lot of 200-300k+ cars out there you just don't know about.

If you go to a junkyard there are a LOT of cars marked good engine and transmission often it is everything else nickel and dining people that causes cars to be scrapped. While the drivetrain of an EV is a big departure the rest of it is just another car. I don't believe they will last any longer than any other car.

Don't get me wrong I love my P85 can't see going back to ICE but at 86k I have spent more on maintence and repairs than I had hoped and still have some things to deal with.
I owned a 235k mile Roadmaster wagon and a 299k mile one that didn't have the suspension rattles my 86k mile magic EV that never needs any repairs or maintenance most definitely does..............

As others said cars are a depreciating asset accept it move on.

The ideas about no maintenance or repairs are silly you just swap transmission replacement for charger replacement. My dual charger car has a wounded charger I paid them $300 to move it to the secondary position rather than shell out $2200 for a new one. My 80amp capable car now only. Charges at 72amps I can live with that. Newer single charger cars won't have that luxury, charger going out is going to be equivalent to ICE drivetrain repair.