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Will My New Model 3 Be Worth The Same As A Honda Civic In 6 Years?

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The ideas about no maintenance or repairs

There is a lot less to maintain, not sure I heard anyone say "no repairs".

The other question you have to ask yourself is "would you rather buy a 6 yr old ICE car or a 6 year old Tesla in 6 years?"

I cannot imagine an ICE car being cheaper to repair and maintain. Not to mention fuel cost. In UK, forget it, it's 130p/litre now, in 6 years it will be 150p/litre. Costs me £300/month just to commute. It wont be getting cheaper due to lower demand.... Not to mention replacing the alternator/ spark plugs/ DPF/ belts/ fuel pump / radiator (since there is a grill and it can be holed by stones). Oh and the annual engine oil change.

Which means more demand for 6yr old Tesla, which means higher price...

There are literally no Model S cheaper than £33k in UK right now, as soon as one comes up it gets bought. That's for a 2014/15 model with old AP and all the issues those old models had, such as dodgy handles.
 
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Here are real auction sales. They look to be holding pretty steady so far.

6/21/19 $40,200 15,238 4.0 EL/A Gray Regular Northeast Pennsylvania
6/12/19 $43,000 9,075 5.0 EL/A Gray Regular West Coast San Francisco Bay
6/5/19 $40,900 11,804 4.3 EL/A Black Regular Southwest Dallas
5/24/19 $38,250 28,873 4.4 EL/A Blue Lease Northeast Pennsylvania
5/16/19 $43,500 7,044 4.2 EL/A Black Regular West Coast Riverside
5/8/19 $43,250 8,989 4.7 EL/A Black Regular West Coast San Diego
 
I think you can use Model S depreciation as a guide. Better then Merc, but can't compare to Toyota/honda etc. mainly b/c you paid a lot at purchase.

I'm still buying a SR b/c I think it'll depreciate the least % compared to other trims esp. if battery/ software upgrades are cheaper in the future. (also b/c I couldn't find a face lift S below $40K :) )
 
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A Honda! Not even close. I like this thread because you are all bringing up valid points but are neglecting one thing...
Nearly every Tesla made in the USA has it's main battery still under warranty. In 6 years no part of the Honda drivetrain is under warranty, let alone any other part of it. It's hard to do an apples to apples with Tesla and any other car ICE or EV.
Personally, I think the Honda in 6 yrs will only be worth 6 to 8K. Any 3 will only devalue that much given the same miles.
 
Any German/foreign luxury car is worth squat once warranty expires, plus they make a ton of them every year. You can buy used later model BMW 3 and 5 series cars for below 10 grand all day long, and there is a reason for that. Same with Cadillac's and Porshe Cayan's.
 
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From what I've seen, Teslas have a pretty steep drop off in value at first, but then hold it pretty well once you get under half the original sale price.

My guess is the battery pack and software value creates a higher floor on the resale value compared to an ICE vehicle. Also, there is an underserved market for used EVs for under $30K that will snap up good used examples of Teslas, even moreso under $20K. Part shortages could also keep the residual values high.
 
You also have to take into account the earlier 3's with the full Federal tax credit available. That immediately changes the resale value by the amount of the tax credit. Your out of pocket expense for the car (assuming you can use the full credit) is much lower than what you paid for it. Now that the Federal credit is gone, the actual depreciation (out of pocket vs. resale) on the older cars is lower than a non tax credit model. This skews the normal depreciation curve.
 
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It will really depend what the EV market looks like in 3-4 years.

I think Tesla value will remain strong because:

1. Tesla has an established a brand now and large following.
2. Tesla EV technology is far ahead of the competition right now. Better batteries, electric motors, battery management, efficiency.
3. Software Updates - OTA updates to continually improve the car and add features. Fantastic and keeps owners entertained after the initial honeymoon phase of a new car wears off.
4. Driving Dynamics - Tesla EVs are fast and fun to drive compared to other EVs. They are even more fun to drive than some of the dedicated sports cars I have owned. I think they still have a ways to go as it relates to suspension handling and weight savings but I expect improvements in future generations of the car.
5. Autopilot/FSD - assuming it all comes to fruition, this is a game changer for the auto industry.
6. Supercharging network - one of the biggest concerns for new EV buyers is range anxiety and the Tesla Supercharging network makes cross-country driving in a Tesla a reality. It just seems like it will take all the other manufacturers a long time to stand up a charging infrastructure and by that time Tesla will further their lead.
 
There will be a lot more Model 3’s for sale in a few years than either the S or X market just due to the much higher volumes they are selling at. So this is new territory for Tesla. On the plus side the Model 3 is a much simpler car than the S or X and hopefully will have fewer mechanical reliability issues. Maybe those two things will balance each other out.

If the technology advances quickly over the next few years that could also have a big impact.
 
Here are real auction sales. They look to be holding pretty steady so far.

6/21/19 $40,200 15,238 4.0 EL/A Gray Regular Northeast Pennsylvania
6/12/19 $43,000 9,075 5.0 EL/A Gray Regular West Coast San Francisco Bay
6/5/19 $40,900 11,804 4.3 EL/A Black Regular Southwest Dallas
5/24/19 $38,250 28,873 4.4 EL/A Blue Lease Northeast Pennsylvania
5/16/19 $43,500 7,044 4.2 EL/A Black Regular West Coast Riverside
5/8/19 $43,250 8,989 4.7 EL/A Black Regular West Coast San Diego

I don't understand this chart. Are these Model 3 sales? Which trim/model year? What is 4.0/5.0/4.3/etc? What is EL/A? How is there a lease with 29k miles, didn't they just start leasing two months ago?
 
There will be a lot more Model 3’s for sale in a few years than either the S or X market just due to the much higher volumes they are selling at. So this is new territory for Tesla. On the plus side the Model 3 is a much simpler car than the S or X and hopefully will have fewer mechanical reliability issues. Maybe those two things will balance each other out.

If the technology advances quickly over the next few years that could also have a big impact.

Don't forget, Tesla has learned a lot from the Roadster, S, and X, and rolled those lessons into the 3.

It's at least a third generation EV for Tesla, and arguably more like fifth (they've been through some major architecture and system changes in the S and X over the years.)

As such, it should be much more reliable. Should.
 
I don't understand this chart. Are these Model 3 sales? Which trim/model year? What is 4.0/5.0/4.3/etc? What is EL/A? How is there a lease with 29k miles, didn't they just start leasing two months ago?

They look like Mannheim auction sales. The number 4.0, 4.2, etc. represent the auto-grade or condition of the car, higher the better. I think the EL/Aare the codes for electric and auto transmission. When they list ICE cars is it cylinders and then auto or manual. Like 8cyl/A or 4cyl/M.

Tough to say on the miles. Some folks can put crazy miles on a car. I spoke to some Uber/Lyft drivers and they just lease a cheap Corolla and put a ton of miles on it per week.
 
Let's just pretend it's 2025 out there, and you are shopping for a used car for your 16 year old child. Your budget is 10k. Do you buy a 2019 C250 Mercedes or 2019 Tesla Model 3? For me, just a thought of spending $500 on brake job on C250 would seal the deal.

Other than the battery itself what are the big ticket items on a model 3? I read cost on the electric motors when they build them is only around $800, not sure what Tesla would charge to replace though. How much are on-board chargers, inverters, etc.? How much does the display cost? I hear the Model 3 is very modular and easy to work on. In fact they claim 80% of service issues where you don't need a lift or access to special tools can be handled by mobile service. I just wish we could buy Tesla parts directly or through suppliers.
 
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If my for sale thread is any indication, at 6 months it’s worthless... hate to see 6 years...

The good news is, in 6 years you’ll have more people buying EVs since they are so inexpensive, and with a thousand less moving parts, should be more reliable than... well, not a civic, but you get the idea.

To be fair, all cars lose the most value in the first year than any other. We EAP buyers are also running into the issue that EAP no longer exists, so many buyers won't get how it's better than the already-free AP. If it doesn't have FSD, they might value the car lower than it should be.

That's the only thing I'm salty on. Now, FSD is $6k upgrade for EAP buyers even though they claimed when we bought that it would be a $5k upgrade. Either way, we pay $12k for what people can now get for $6k. I get the overall price with tax credit remains about the same; not saying it's a rational salty, but still. Particularly since some people were able to upgrade EAP to FSD for only $2k. But only if you were enough of a fanatic (and not on vacation or anything) during 1.5-2 weeks in March. At the very least they should have sent out an email to all owners who had EAP.

People your the 500k thing like it is some huge departure, ICE are designed for several hundred thousand miles too, there are a lot of 200-300k+ cars out there you just don't know about.

If you go to a junkyard there are a LOT of cars marked good engine and transmission often it is everything else nickel and dining people that causes cars to be scrapped. While the drivetrain of an EV is a big departure the rest of it is just another car. I don't believe they will last any longer than any other car.

Don't get me wrong I love my P85 can't see going back to ICE but at 86k I have spent more on maintence and repairs than I had hoped and still have some things to deal with.
I owned a 235k mile Roadmaster wagon and a 299k mile one that didn't have the suspension rattles my 86k mile magic EV that never needs any repairs or maintenance most definitely does..............

As others said cars are a depreciating asset accept it move on.

The ideas about no maintenance or repairs are silly you just swap transmission replacement for charger replacement. My dual charger car has a wounded charger I paid them $300 to move it to the secondary position rather than shell out $2200 for a new one. My 80amp capable car now only. Charges at 72amps I can live with that. Newer single charger cars won't have that luxury, charger going out is going to be equivalent to ICE drivetrain repair.

I disagree that ICE cars will last long as EVs. Other than the Honda or Toyota, I don't know anyone with cars with 150-200k mi+ that hasn't gone through an engine or transmission swap. My in-laws went through multiple on their old Explorer. I think you might be jaded by the fact that you were an earlier Tesla owner. Based on Tesloop's maintenance records over 450k mi, under the harshest possible conditions (exclusively charging on Superchargers and used for a taxi service), despite several battery replacements, maintenance appears to be far lower than for a comparable car.

I drove Leafs from 2012-18, and wife still has one. We didn't have a single thing go wrong. Our '16 Leaf has 40k mi and still has >1/2 brake pad wear left, despite having far lower regen than Teslas. My old ICE accord had its first brake pad and rotor change ~30 k mi. The only really expensive part that wears is the battery. As battery costs decrease, this disparity will grow even greater.

You also have to take into account the earlier 3's with the full Federal tax credit available. That immediately changes the resale value by the amount of the tax credit. Your out of pocket expense for the car (assuming you can use the full credit) is much lower than what you paid for it. Now that the Federal credit is gone, the actual depreciation (out of pocket vs. resale) on the older cars is lower than a non tax credit model. This skews the normal depreciation curve.

Exactly. Though I'm hoping they don't raise their prices again when the next administration (hopefully) reintroduces tax credits.
 
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The Civic is a cheap car to start with and also extremely reliable.

Based on the Model S experience, I expect that a six-year-old Model 3 will be worth somewhat more than a used Civic of the same age, though perhaps not much more. Basically the market is going to be driven by the overwhelming increasing demand for electric cars, among people who can't afford to buy them new. This is why the resale value of used Leafs (which really do have a lot of problems with battery degradation) has been going *up* recently. Used ICE car values will drop massively but the Civic and Corolla may be among the ones which hold up.
 
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Which means more demand for 6yr old Tesla, which means higher price...

There are literally no Model S cheaper than £33k in UK right now, as soon as one comes up it gets bought. That's for a 2014/15 model with old AP and all the issues those old models had, such as dodgy handles.

In the US the floor appears to be $27K... for pre-Autopilot Model S with >150K miles on it. Lower price than that means the car's been wrecked.
 
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