Will our Model Y come from Austin?

[Tcmccormick]

We are in Tennessee and ordered our Model Y LR around April 1, 2022. Delivery is scheduled Dec or Jan. We would prefer it come from Austin with single castings and 4680 structural battery pack. I know they are still making Model Ys in Fremont. I have read in some places that if you are in the eastern part of the US you will get your Model Y from Austin, not sure that’s for sure or just speculation. Does anyone have any definitive sources that we should get from Austin?

 

[csrpenfab]

Survey says.... NO!

 

[Yelobird]

If it’s a LR it won’t be coming from Texas for a long time.

 

[Tcmccormick]

Well that sucks. Now I wonder if I should cancel and wait. The Austin made seems it would be a superior vehicle. Hate to end up with out dated technology.

 

[MyMYLRnw]

It might if you are willing to switch to lesser range when and IF they offer it to you. The new 4680s currently have 279mi range vs 330 for the Long Range Y

 

[Tcmccormick]

Yeah, knew you could do that, but really preferred LR. I just assumed they would be producing there by the end of the year.

 

[MyMYLRnw]

Yeah, knew you could do that, but really preferred LR. I just assumed they would be producing there by the end of the year.

It’s anyone’s guess right now.

 

[ScoobyDoo82]

It might if you are willing to switch to lesser range when and IF they offer it to you. The new 4680s currently have 279mi range vs 330 for the Long Range Y

…not to mention a (slightly) slower 0-60 speed. 4860’s are great.. but Tesla hasn’t unlocked it’s true potential for consumers yet. If the pack were 82kwh like the current 2170 cells then the new Model Y would range at close to 500 miles. This would cannibalize their current offerings so they had to make the pack smaller and only offer a car with sub 300mile range…. When Tesla has a 4680 model Y with a larger pack then it’s something special (imagine a 100 kWh 4860 pack on the Model Y - done deal) But, the smaller capacity/range and slower 0-60 is not worth it. Get a Fremont built (2170 cells) Model Y. You’ll be fine.

 

[arbitrage000]

It will be a long time till we see 4680 LR or P MYs out of Texas.
Tesla is now on record saying 2170 cars will be built in Texas.
In order to produce a superior 4680 car they will also have to produce that same car in Fremont or else there will be two different models on the market being sold under the same model #/pricing. That isn't going to fly.

So a lot of things have to happen for a LR 4680 to hit the market....Fremont needs to change over to 4680 and Texas needs to ramp up and make such a car.

Tesla will continue to produce this new AWD 4680 car and once they can produce enough will open it to everyone to order if they want to.

4680 battery production has to increase a lot as they are going to be needed for CT and Semi. I really don't see 4680 MYLR or MYP for a long time.

 

[MyMYLRnw]

Yes. Cybertruck and Semi will get priority for 4680s before Model Y LR or Performance. It makes you wonder why even offer the reduced range 4680 model Ys.

 

[MidNJDrv]

My guess, tesla will come up with a new MY model like LR+ with higher price and full 4680 battery.

 

[ZenRockGarden]

…not to mention a (slightly) slower 0-60 speed. 4860’s are great.. but Tesla hasn’t unlocked it’s true potential for consumers yet. If the pack were 82kwh like the current 2170 cells then the new Model Y would range at close to 500 miles. This would cannibalize their current offerings so they had to make the pack smaller and only offer a car with sub 300mile range…. When Tesla has a 4680 model Y with a larger pack then it’s something special (imagine a 100 kWh 4860 pack on the Model Y - done deal) But, the smaller capacity/range and slower 0-60 is not worth it. Get a Fremont built (2170 cells) Model Y. You’ll be fine.

I don't believe that's accurate. The MYAWD is running a reduced-size pack with about 20% fewer cells, and not surprisingly 20% less range. Filling out the 4680 pack to full cell count only gets another 20% range, putting it back up to ~340 miles, not 500.

 

[Tcmccormick]

So if Tesla will produce Model Y in Austin with 2170 cells is it possible our MY LR we’re to receive Dec or Jan will have 2170 cells with single castings at least or is the consensus it will probably come from Fremont with all older technology?

 

[Yelobird]

So if Tesla will produce Model Y in Austin with 2170 cells is it possible our MY LR we’re to receive Dec or Jan will have 2170 cells with single castings at least or is the consensus it will probably come from Fremont with all older technology?

Still Fremont. And as for “older”. They are building the same car with new employees at a different location. Won’t mean much other then the high probability of a New learning curve.

 

[ScoobyDoo82]

I don't believe that's accurate. The MYAWD is running a reduced-size pack with about 20% fewer cells, and not surprisingly 20% less range. Filling out the 4680 pack to full cell count only gets another 20% range, putting it back up to ~340 miles, not 500.

It’s currently about 50kwh.. that’s more than 20% less than the 82kwh 2170. I’m imagining if they built a 100kwh 4680 cell pack. That would be 2x what the current built in Austin MY gets - which is about 500+. See what I’m saying now that I’ve cleared it up?

 

[ZenRockGarden]

It’s currently about 50kwh.. that’s more than 20% less than the 82kwh 2170. I’m imagining if they built a 100kwh 4680 cell pack. That would be 2x what the current built in Austin MY gets - which is about 500+. See what I’m saying now that I’ve cleared it up?

The 50 kwh figure is nonsense. EPA spec for MYAWD is 67 kwh and some unknown and totally bogus source randomly said 50 kwh a few days ago, making everyone confused.

There is no confusion. The MYAWD has identical powertrain and same efficiency as MYLR - a 50 kwh battery would go 200 miles. It's obviously wrong. Having 4680 cells in the pack goes not make the electrons magically stronger and go farther.

 

[Skipcam]

Does anyone know when Tesla builds will have a 2023 VIN? That is, when does Tesla switch over? I have a friend who got a Dec. 2019 Model 3 but it was a 2020 VIN. I ask because there are many of us who are now looking at Nov Dec EDDs and I'm sure we all would not want to accept a mid to late Dec delivery and find out we get last years car. I know it's the same car by resale value changes significantly.

 

[arbitrage000]

Does anyone know when Tesla builds will have a 2023 VIN? That is, when does Tesla switch over? I have a friend who got a Dec. 2019 Model 3 but it was a 2020 VIN. I ask because there are many of us who are now looking at Nov Dec EDDs and I'm sure we all would not want to accept a mid to late Dec delivery and find out we get last years car. I know it's the same car by resale value changes significantly.

I've read it has been Nov 1st the past few years. But also read about someone saying their October VIN was the next year. So if you have Nov-Dec you will very likely have 2023. Not that it is any different but I guess I'd rather have it say 2023 if getting it late in the year.

 

[Senpai]

I wonder if the East Coast would get an Austin MY by Nov - Dec.

 

[NYMY]

The 50 kwh figure is nonsense. EPA spec for MYAWD is 67 kwh and some unknown and totally bogus source randomly said 50 kwh a few days ago, making everyone confused.

There is no confusion. The MYAWD has identical powertrain and same efficiency as MYLR - a 50 kwh battery would go 200 miles. It's obviously wrong. Having 4680 cells in the pack goes not make the electrons magically stronger and go farther.

(Agreeing) One can even read it off from the submitted EPA filing. The recharge event for the AWD was 76.5 kwh (which includes charging losses) while the recharge event for the LR was 91.1 kwh. Take that ratio and you get 76.5/91.1 * 330=277 mi. Which suggests a usable battery (if the LR is 78kwh) of around 66...

The epa doc is here: https://dis.epa.gov/otaqpub/display_file.jsp?docid=54971&flag=1