Will our Model Y come from Austin?

[ScoobyDoo82]

The 50 kwh figure is nonsense. EPA spec for MYAWD is 67 kwh and some unknown and totally bogus source randomly said 50 kwh a few days ago, making everyone confused.

There is no confusion. The MYAWD has identical powertrain and same efficiency as MYLR - a 50 kwh battery would go 200 miles. It's obviously wrong. Having 4680 cells in the pack goes not make the electrons magically stronger and go farther.

Thanks for clearing it up. I personally wouldn’t want a 4680 equipped MY with its current spec. If they would include a larger capacity and a better 0-60 speed and truly used the better potential for good, instead of making the specs apples to apples it would be a no-brainer. However, the way they are currently doing it (easing in - ensuring that they don’t cannibalize their other products) is smart as a business decision, and I can’t fault Tesla for doing this. But, this is the first round. When the whole fleet is running on this new battery platform and all specs/builds are tweaked to reflect the better performance from the larger cell density it’s going to be awesome.

 

[Tcmccormick]

I wonder if the East Coast would get an Austin MY by Nov - Dec.

I asked this question at the top of this Post and several replied if you are getting a MY LR then No. Everyone says it will come from Fremont with 2170 batteries and not with the new Giga-press single castings which is disappointing. Our MY LR is also scheduled for Dec to Jan 2023. Feels like we’re getting older Tech especially after they will probably unlock more range via upgrades for the 4680 batteries later and the single castings are stronger and lighter.

 

[ZenRockGarden]

I asked this question at the top of this Post and several replied if you are getting a MY LR then No. Everyone says it will come from Fremont with 2170 batteries and not with the new Giga-press single castings which is disappointing. Our MY LR is also scheduled for Dec to Jan 2023. Feels like we’re getting older Tech especially after they will probably unlock more range via upgrades for the 4680 batteries later and the single castings are stronger and lighter.

Right now, the one and only 4680 offering is the MYAWD with 279 miles of range and slightly slower acceleration. It is not meaningfully lighter than the existing MYLR.

All US MYLR are made at Fremont, and use 2170 cells with a rear mega-cast. They might start doing front mega-casts at some point - we have no idea if/when.

We would imagine that at some totally-unknown point, Austin will create a 4680 based MYLR with range comparable or slightly better than existing. Absolutely no one knows when that might happen, or how fast Fremont would follow Austin and go 4680 for MYLR. We don't really know why Austin punted and took 20% of the 4680 cells out to create a smaller pack. We don't know when supplies of 4680 would be high enough to support volume shipments of a "new" MYLR. We don't even know if they'd call the new thing a MYLR, or if it'd be a MYAWD+ or something else.

It would probably need a fresh EPA cert if it's a new pack, so we can be pretty sure it's not coming with in the next few months since there's no sightings of anything like that in the pipeline.

I'd love to see a ~340 mile 4680 MYLR. I'd guess it might happen later in 2023 timed to make it possible for Tesla to convert both their factories at about the same time. This is of course, a guess - Tesla does what they want.

My advice is order what you want, don't sweat the details. A 2170 MYLR is gonna be functionally almost indistinguishable from a future 4680 MYLR. The 4680 one is just cheaper to manufacture and assemble, helping Tesla be more profitable and make more total cars.

 

[Senpai]

Right now, the one and only 4680 offering is the MYAWD with 279 miles of range and slightly slower acceleration. It is not meaningfully lighter than the existing MYLR.

All US MYLR are made at Fremont, and use 2170 cells with a rear mega-cast. They might start doing front mega-casts at some point - we have no idea if/when.

We would imagine that at some totally-unknown point, Austin will create a 4680 based MYLR with range comparable or slightly better than existing. Absolutely no one knows when that might happen, or how fast Fremont would follow Austin and go 4680 for MYLR. We don't really know why Austin punted and took 20% of the 4680 cells out to create a smaller pack. We don't know when supplies of 4680 would be high enough to support volume shipments of a "new" MYLR. We don't even know if they'd call the new thing a MYLR, or if it'd be a MYAWD+ or something else.

It would probably need a fresh EPA cert if it's a new pack, so we can be pretty sure it's not coming with in the next few months since there's no sightings of anything like that in the pipeline.

I'd love to see a ~340 mile 4680 MYLR. I'd guess it might happen later in 2023 timed to make it possible for Tesla to convert both their factories at about the same time. This is of course, a guess - Tesla does what they want.

My advice is order what you want, don't sweat the details. A 2170 MYLR is gonna be functionally almost indistinguishable from a future 4680 MYLR. The 4680 one is just cheaper to manufacture and assemble, helping Tesla be more profitable and make more total cars.

Yes these are good points.
I am really not sweating it , I just wish Tesla was a bit more transparent...... but I know that has always been an issue,

 

[Tcmccormick]

Thanks for all the info. Yeah, I think we will leave our current MYLR on order as is. True, probably the biggest advantage to mega-casting and 4680 is reducing manufacturing costs. We own some stock so very pro reducing costs and raising profits ! I was just bummed since I assumed our MYLR would come from Austin since it would not be delivered until Dec or Jan 2023. We really wanted to get a Tesla and were prepared to wait, but on whim decided to call the local Tesla dealer in Nashville on a Friday to see if they had any stock totally expecting they would not and they said they had a demo M3P with 1300 miles that they were about to make available for sale. I asked if I could buy it now and he said yes with a $250 deposit. We went in on Saturday traded in our 2015 Mercedes C300, and picked it up. We absolutely love the car. By far the most fun car I have ever driven. We immediately ordered the MYLR, since that is really what we wanted, but glad we took the plunge with the M3P. Got into the FSD Beta which I am only subscribed for a month to test on a road trip so could not believe I got in that quick. FSD is also amazing, although I think based on what I have seen so far is not close to ready, but I definitely think it will get there if all stays on track. What it can do now though blows me away. You watch all the YouTube videos of people using FSD which is impressive, but when you are actually behind the wheel it is hard to wrap your head around how it does what it does. Granted it will do some whacky things and you really have to be ready to take over quickly, but most of the time it works great. Thanks for all the great info!

 

[Mrbrock]

Based on other news, they are delivering model y Lr from Austin this coming week. But they are likely identical to Fremont. 2170 and no front casting. So changes of you getting an Austin built car are good. But it is unlikely they will ever make 4680 LR Y since they would be heavier and slower than 2170 LR and they will need all the 4680 they can make for the Cybertruck ramp. It wouldn’t surprise me if these initial 4680 SR MY go the way of the 2170 SR RWD MY. Available for a couple months to prove they can make them then transition to 100% 2170 MY and 4680 CT/Semi at Austin. And transition to MY 2170 with front casting at the same time. There is no fact behind this guess, just supposition based on how the 4680 didn’t meet expectations and what they are talking about producing in 2023 and what resources they will need to make that happen at the scale they want.

 

[Gu$ G]

I had an order with a EDD of June delivering on the west coast. When I updated the delivery to Dallas, TX the EDD slipped to "Nov-Jan".

Could this be because Dallas is lower priority for Fremont MYLR and I have to get in line for Austin?

 

[norazi]

I was just bummed since I assumed our MYLR would come from Austin since it would not be delivered until Dec or Jan 2023.

Lots of early receptions are stating mis-aligned panels and door gaps. My guess is that you are lucky not to get a first year Giga-Austin Y as they are still getting used to the build process.

 

[Charliepro]

When I changed my mylr order from 19" to 20" wheels, the delivery date moved from mar-may 2023 to dec2022-jan2023. Would this have to do with wheel availability or maybe even Austin vs Freemont point of origin?

 

[arbitrage000]

When I changed my mylr order from 19" to 20" wheels, the delivery date moved from mar-may 2023 to dec2022-jan2023. Would this have to do with wheel availability or maybe even Austin vs Freemont point of origin?

It has to do with changing a no option order to an optioned order (I assume you originally had black interior, white or MSM exterior, no tow, no FSD, no EAP). Adding any option (even as cheap as a $1K paint color) gets you a 3 month improvement in EDD.

 

[phonetele226]

Don’t assume the Texas vehicle is superior. It has teething pains as well. Everything I have read says the single piece casting and structural battery pack have no tangible benefits for the customer. Assembly and cost savings accrue to Tesla not the customer.

 

[Tcmccormick]

Don’t assume the Texas vehicle is superior. It has teething pains as well. Everything I have read says the single piece casting and structural battery pack have no tangible benefits for the customer. Assembly and cost savings accrue to Tesla not the customer.

True, but assumption is the 4680 cells will be superior at some point. I am fine with getting whatever the current version is when our ticket is up. My bigger concern since I started this thread is delaying until after Jan. 1st if the new EV tax credit of $7500 is passed. Would suck to accept the car in December and find out the next month the cost would have been reduced by $7500.

 

[michaelb11]

True, but assumption is the 4680 cells will be superior at some point. I am fine with getting whatever the current version is when our ticket is up. My bigger concern since I started this thread is delaying until after Jan. 1st if the new EV tax credit of $7500 is passed. Would suck to accept the car in December and find out the next month the cost would have been reduced by $7500.

you need to make less than $150K single, 300K married to get it.....eliminates me.

 

[phonetele226]

True, but assumption is the 4680 cells will be superior at some point. I am fine with getting whatever the current version is when our ticket is up. My bigger concern since I started this thread is delaying until after Jan. 1st if the new EV tax credit of $7500 is passed. Would suck to accept the car in December and find out the next month the cost would have been reduced by $7500.

Yes I get it. That’s a substantial discount. You are lucky though. In Canada we get nothing unless the vehicle comes in at less than $45K. So only the cheapest EV’s that no one wants get a credit.

 

[Tcmccormick]

Yes I get it. That’s a substantial discount. You are lucky though. In Canada we get nothing unless the vehicle comes in at less than $45K. So only the cheapest EV’s that no one wants get a credit.

Unfortunately I think the US policy is tailored around helping GM and Ford and not really to promote EV adoption. I think the EV adoption threshold has been crossed or will be very soon. If the US policy could have been written it in such a way to help GM and Ford while leaving out Tesla they would have probably done that, but probably could not pull that off without being even more obvious.

 

[phonetele226]

My guess, tesla will come up with a new MY model like LR+ with higher price and full 4680 battery.

That’s possible. Or even a Model Y Performance Plus version with 4680 and mildly different cosmetics. They could charge more and sell them all thus keeping LR and Performance with 2170 made in Fremont.

 

[TomServo]

Consider this, Tesla is using the OLD 1860 cell in the new S/X and look at the performance they are extracting from them. The 2170’s have more life in them. So the delta between them isn’t as great as folks are hoping for today. I’m more interested in the Y getting the same features being offered in the MIC/MIG Y’s. Maybe a year from now the 4680s will be all they are claimed they can be.

 

[Tcmccormick]

Consider this, Tesla is using the OLD 1860 cell in the new S/X and look at the performance they are extracting from them. The 2170’s have more life in them. So the delta between them isn’t as great as folks are hoping for today. I’m more interested in the Y getting the same features being offered in the MIC/MIG Y’s. Maybe a year from now the 4680s will be all they are claimed they can be.

True. It’s really more about chemistry of the battery when it comes to improved performance. 4680’s tab less design and larger form factor are more about manufacturing productivity than being a “better” battery IMO. Good to talk through all this with others and get a reality check. Ultimately, it’s a great car that I believe will dominate and set the trend many years to come. Excited to get the new MY, although after having this M3P since April I’ll be sad to see it go. I’m 60 this year and from my experience this car, by far, has been the best vehicle I’ve ever owned. Drop mic!!

 

[Mrbrock]

Elon is talking about lowering prices as inflation subsides. In the past he has raised prices when rebates were available. Wouldn’t be surprised if prices inch back up as most orders are looking to be fulfilled in 2023.

 

[Tcmccormick]

Elon is talking about lowering prices as inflation subsides. In the past he has raised prices when rebates were available. Wouldn’t be surprised if prices inch back up as most orders are looking to be fulfilled in 2023.

I agree. The whole deal of the government offering this EV credit is ridiculous. It will have the opposite effect on reducing inflation. It will increase prices (inflation). The reason the FED increases the cost of money is to slow down increasing prices (inflation). This should be called the Inflation Increase Act. The real reason for this Bill is to prop up US car manufactures (mainly GM) which is not much different than when the tax payers had to bail out GM in 2008.