- I think that we would not benefit from four, so no. In what I think are the foreseeable use cases for us, four wouldn't materially change virtually any outcomes. So far, outages longer than five days have been nonexistent, and what we would really benefit from during an extended outage with no solar is something like Enphase's generator injection for recharging the powerwalls in a post earthquake event with weeks of zero power during winter storms/overcast, or weeks of fire induced power outage with heavy smoke. Under more normal scenarios, outages from March to October would appear to be within our sustainable solar power recharging budget. (Not true for weeks of bad smoke, but again there I think that the solution is a generator, not an extra battery, as far as I can tell.)
- There are powerwall cycling requirements as far as I am aware, but I don't know for sure. (Online SGIP documents say so, but nothing that I have been given says so.)
- There is an opportunity for a small amount of ITC on this project, but I won't take it if it turns out to conflict with grid charging of powerwalls: hence the interest in this thread.
- I don't have an answer on blade disconnects at the moment. It is Santa Clara county, and that hasn't been one of their issues. So far. @Vines will know better than I do.
I get that SGIP would pay for more batteries for us. (We had demand data for five.) I just don't see that we have a need for four. So, yes, I guess that I am not spending our joint tax dollars on another battery for me.
I do believe that powerwalls have the potential to make for a more resilient grid, exporting power during peak needs. I am happy to have that be their moonlighting job, but to me their day job is delivering power during catastrophic events. Without power, we don't have water. Everything else is icing on the cake in my book. I can wear mittens, or sit in the shade. And yes, we have backup backup generators, and have used them. No, I am not preparing for the end of the world. We just live near some major faults, in a wildfire zone, and with a power utility that has trouble keeping the lights on. No hurricanes or tsunamis or tornados here, so I don't sweat those.
This isn't my first rodeo in disaster planning, and I have spent a fair amount of time creating marginal cost / marginal benefit analyses of low probability, but high impact events. There is a cost to being prepared for a disaster, and a cost for not being prepared. To be happy, I think that you just need to be explicit on what you are trying to achieve and the price that you are willing to pay for it. Sometimes you are better off waiting for help. Sometimes not.
I have an acquaintance in the Sierra foothills forested area who has 5,000 gallons of propane in addition to her solar. She never wants to have any discomfort. Me? I would die from just thinking about the fire risk. (The tanks are well within blast distances of her house.)
Different strokes for different folks...YMMV...
All the best,
BG