I am contemplating buying a Model S - 85kWh but read somewhere on a forum that the Model S might be upgraded to 400-500 mile range in 2015. Are there any clues from Tesla that this might happen and/or is it even likely to have such a big jump in range without significantly impacting the price? Because if the rumors are true, I would rather wait until 2015. Thanks.
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There is no doubt there will eventually be a higher capacity battery, but I highly doubt it will be in 2015.
Elon already talked about higher battery capacity in the future. In the past, every year battery technology has made batteries about 8% better. It's a matter of time when it becomes practical for Tesla to come out with a 100 kWh or higher battery. Not soon, but eventually.
Adm
Active Member
Just imagine what a 500mi battery would do to the value of all older Model S'ses. Not going to happen any time soon as they've made a commitment to buy back leased cars at a high price.
The probability of being able to upgrade to a better battery in the future easily is actually one of the reasons I went with the Tesla. It's future proof.
EarlyAdopter
Active Member
Until the Gigafactory comes online, Tesla needs all the cells they can get metered out to meet demand for cars.
After the GF comes online I believe they'll need all the cells they can produce to meet Model E demand.
Range is likely going to remain 200 - 265 for the foreseeable future (2020). The growing Supercharger network makes this less and less a concern over time.
After the GF comes online I believe they'll need all the cells they can produce to meet Model E demand.
Range is likely going to remain 200 - 265 for the foreseeable future (2020). The growing Supercharger network makes this less and less a concern over time.
Vger
Active Member
Agree with all above, AND... you really do not need more range! With the supercharger network growing almost daily, even having an 85 (as we do) is going to start feeling excessive. Range of 200-250 miles is adequate for almost any current and future use case, figuring in superchargers.
Amen to that! Besides the fact that generally more range isn't required is the fact that range is only one side of it. Cost has already been mentioned but the real issue when talking out 160kWh packs (500 miles) is how you are going to charge it and charge it in an acceptably short time. The cost of the SC is going to go up as will the cost of getting high enough power supply to feed it. It's all a complete nonsense. 'Drive for 2 (or 3) hours; stop for one' seems a more than acceptable system to me. Safer, less tiring and more enjoyable. What's not to like? MW
You should not forget that with a bigger, let's say 160kWh, battery the SuperCharger can start tapering off at a later point.
So it can stay at ~110kW for a longer period, thus charging you quicker. You can then leave with a 50% SoC again.
Yeah - I never drive 3 hours and stop 1. What I would be happier with is drive 3 hours and stop 15 minutes which a bigger battery could do for you. While superchargers are great and all - it is still a sacrifice on road trips.
Or alternatively, drive 5 hours and arrive at destination.
As far as safety - not all driving is CA driving....
Bigger is always better but in 2015, not worth $30k, which is what it would probably cost.
2020 is a good estimate for the reasons of battery supply.
Or alternatively, drive 5 hours and arrive at destination.
As far as safety - not all driving is CA driving....
Bigger is always better but in 2015, not worth $30k, which is what it would probably cost.
2020 is a good estimate for the reasons of battery supply.
Todd Burch
14-Year Member
Higher capacity will certainly come down the road--it will enable faster charging, more power output to the motor, and less concern over degredation.
However, 400-500 miles won't be coming for several years. I'd say perhaps 5 years from now.
However, 400-500 miles won't be coming for several years. I'd say perhaps 5 years from now.
According to Elon during the Feb 14, 2014 presentation in the Netherlands "“There is the potential for bigger battery packs in the future, but it would probably be maybe next year or something like that." Now, one does have to keep in mind that these are Elon Years which tend to be somewhat longer than statute years.
I think teala will need to roll out a larger pack later this year/ early next as it is likely that the Model X will have a higher drag and maybe weigh more than the S. So to have same range as 85 Model S they may need to increase pack sizes to 95 or something like that.
Of course balanced by need to meet current Model S demand so they probably want to announce later rather than sooner.
Of course balanced by need to meet current Model S demand so they probably want to announce later rather than sooner.
Except the Model S is so superior in other ways, it's not a net sacrifice IMO. At the top of that list is crash safety. I would instead say you're sacrificing your safety by driving anything else.
Anyway Musk has mentioned more than once I believe, that there won't be any significant battery upgrade for a few years but that there may be slight increases coming sooner. He mentions it in the Amsterdam video from a few months ago. I wouldn't wait. Like all gadgets the newest version is always just around the corner. And in this case, for reasons I state above, it's important to get into a Model S ASAP.
stopcrazypp
Well-Known Member
I read that claim on insideEVs too. It's completely baseless. As discussed in another thread, a 100kWh battery is fairly likely (to coincide with the Model X and AWD). But 400-500 miles (130-160kWh) is unlikely in the near term.
The guess for 100kWh is that Panasonic is supposed have to started manufacturing 4000mAh cells last year (although there they still haven't yet, AFAIK) and depending on if 3400mAh (this one is more likely from analysis of the cell count) or 3100mAh are the cells in the current Model S, you end up with 100-110kWh for a pack using the new 4000mAh cells.
...well, that's one way to look at it
I'm gonna buy a Tank, and so what it's horrible to park, drive and fuel. It's so much safer than anything else on the road, it's a net win!In any case, I agree for the most part. With a rolled out SC network, longer range batteries wouldn't be a necessity. But I think faster recharge times should be. I'm OK stopping to refuel if it's a 15 minute stop vs 45-60. If they need bigger batteries to achieve that, I'm all for it.
Elon stated in Norway on 1/2/14 that larger battery packs are coming next year (2015)...
Elon Musk in Oslo 01.02.2014 - YouTube
Fast forward to 7:10.
Elon Musk in Oslo 01.02.2014 - YouTube
Fast forward to 7:10.
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