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Will Tesla be able to complete the FSD?

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If only cameras were used, I think perfect FSD requires much higher computing power than HW3.0

Here are some thoughts.

First of all, it would depend on your definition of "FSD" and on your definition of "perfect". I don't think there will ever be a "perfect FSD". FSD doesn't need to be perfect, it just needs to be better than an average human driver. And an average human driver is far from perfect.

Second, have a look at what comma.ai is able to achieve with its Openpilot. It's not FSD of course, but what they can do essentially on a cell phone is mind blowing! That may change your view on the computing power requirements.

When Tesla designed its FSD chip I think they already had a pretty good idea about the computing power requirements they would need for what they were working on in software. Whether they've made the right choice or not, I guess we'll find out soon enough.
 
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You'll get something that kinda works OK in city driving (which is infinitely more complex than self-driving on the highway). City driving will require much more aggressive nag alerts due to the possibility of hitting pedestrians. Potentially the interior camera may be utilized to determine if you are paying attention or not.

Then, along the way, Tesla will improve the hardware in current production cars - maybe dual cameras on every side with higher specs, more powerful processor(s), etc. and you'll end up with a phase 2 FSD that is much more capable. You'll be on phase 1 which doesn't work nearly as well as phase 2 but does work OK depending on your expectations. Tesla won't upgrade your phase 1 car to phase 2 (as they have with prior HW 3.0) because they've sold a lot more cars to this point in our discussion and the cost to upgrade all this hardware is much more prohibitive than a simple module swap.

Then there will be a class action lawsuit from phase 1 owners claiming that Tesla didn't deliver on the full-self driving promise while phase 2 owners will say "quit your crying - your car is 5 years old. Buy a new Tesla or get over it". And there will also be 400 threads about this issue in this very forum (which will be annoying).
 
The term FSD means Full Self Driving which is level 5 autonomy, this is an industry recognised term and not one that Tesla made up. HW 3.0 is a "full self driving computer". So anyone buying a Tesla with this hardware level should expect full autonomy eventually. Don't let anyone here tell you that the model 3 you just bought is not advertised to do as such using these terms otherwise they should be changed to more like " Self driving beta features". Regulatory Approval may also delay this by years even when the magic happens. Currently I think 2025 is probably the earliest we will see legal level 5,s. There are some smart people working on this all over the place so breakthroughs are coming.

Lidar well it does have its advantages which have so far not been superseded. Just like any other sensor it could also get dirty or blocked too. Unless they become self cleaning there still maybe points where you have to intervene there. The advantage Tesla have is us as active users testing and giving them a tremendous amount of feedback to train the AI like no other manufacturer. But it is arguable that cars using Lidar at the moment are still better self driving cars as of now. Smart bit of software could change that.
 
Would love to see, in writing, where Tesla has promised level 5 autonomy.

No I am not saying they have made a promise in that wording. We are all testing these cars to get to that goal in a sense. I am just saying the term FSD is thrown about when it means something and that is a car that drives itself at level 5. The expectation is there with the car if you speak to people who are not owners and I am sure a great deal of owners want to see this realised including myself. Elon's tweets should count and we should believe it will get there. I just think a reality check in the wording is needed until that breakthrough update arrives.
 
You'll get something that kinda works OK in city driving (which is infinitely more complex than self-driving on the highway). City driving will require much more aggressive nag alerts due to the possibility of hitting pedestrians. Potentially the interior camera may be utilized to determine if you are paying attention or not.

Then, along the way, Tesla will improve the hardware in current production cars - maybe dual cameras on every side with higher specs, more powerful processor(s), etc. and you'll end up with a phase 2 FSD that is much more capable. You'll be on phase 1 which doesn't work nearly as well as phase 2 but does work OK depending on your expectations. Tesla won't upgrade your phase 1 car to phase 2 (as they have with prior HW 3.0) because they've sold a lot more cars to this point in our discussion and the cost to upgrade all this hardware is much more prohibitive than a simple module swap.

Then there will be a class action lawsuit from phase 1 owners claiming that Tesla didn't deliver on the full-self driving promise while phase 2 owners will say "quit your crying - your car is 5 years old. Buy a new Tesla or get over it". And there will also be 400 threads about this issue in this very forum (which will be annoying).

Well done Mr. Burrito.

The first thing people ask me about my car is if it drives itself. My reply - no car drives itself. The capability is over hyped, unrealistic and just a little bit reckless. What is missing for true self-driving is the infrastructure to allow vehicles to function as slot-cars. Probably in the form of embedded sensors in roadways and intersections. I suspect that may actually happen, but a generation will pass before it does. We can't even stay ahead of potholes at present.

In the meantime, what I look for in FSD is an increasingly capable workload reducer. I hope for, and expect, progressively better traffic avoidance, lane keeping, lane change anticipation and condition monitoring. This will get me to my destination in a more rested and alert condition, and make road trips more of a delight (which they already are for me, but I'm weird that way).

If I thought that the average driver was capable of fully understanding the technology and function of the components that aid driving in their cars I would be more optimistic about this. However, I think that is an absolute necessity short of the slot car capability I previously mentioned. I'll use an aviation analogy. Autopilots have been around since before WWII. Really. I know that they are much more capable now than when I was terrorizing the skies. However, one thing has not changed. Pilots have to be thoroughly trained in their use and function, and the pilot has to be smarter than "George". In the old days it was trim runaways that could bite you. Now that old George can take the plane from takeoff to a near-zero visibility landing the necessity for continual monitoring has even increased.

I absolutely do not spend time wishing for cars that "allow" drivers to swivel their seat around and play a foursome of bridge. God help us.
 
No I am not saying they have made a promise in that wording. We are all testing these cars to get to that goal in a sense. I am just saying the term FSD is thrown about when it means something and that is a car that drives itself at level 5. The expectation is there with the car if you speak to people who are not owners and I am sure a great deal of owners want to see this realised including myself. Elon's tweets should count and we should believe it will get there. I just think a reality check in the wording is needed until that breakthrough update arrives.
Understood. Just don't think we'll get there with the current hardware - I don't think we've reached a point where this is entirely a software-only challenge.
 
The term FSD means Full Self Driving which is level 5 autonomy

Nope.

FSD is a Tesla-specific marketing term- and does not appear anywhere in the SAE description of Level 5 driving.


It means whatever Tesla says it means. (and they've sold 2 different versions of it of course, pre and post March 2019)

Which, for the current version they are selling, does not say L5 driving.

Even the old version doesn't- though the described capabilities at least look a lot closer in that one.

, this is an industry recognised term and not one that Tesla made up

L5? Sure. But Tesla has never sold L5.

FSD on the other hand is absolutely a Tesla made up term. One which as I point out has had two entirely different definitions over time.


. HW 3.0 is a "full self driving computer". So anyone buying a Tesla with this hardware level should expect full autonomy eventually.

No, they should expect it to delivery everything Tesla promised as part of the FSD package.

Which, again, is not, and never has been, promised to deliver SAE L5 driving.

The only interesting part here is the pre-march-2019 buyers may have higher expectations of what they're owed than the post-march-2019 buyers.


This is not the first time you've had to have these facts explained to you either- and each time we ask you to show anything from tesla that proves you're not wrong you never post anything except SAE documents that don't mention FSD at all.
 
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Nope.

FSD is a Tesla-specific marketing term- and does not appear anywhere in the SAE description of Level 5 driving.


It means whatever Tesla says it means. (and they've sold 2 different versions of it of course, pre and post March 2019)

Which, for the current version they are selling, does not say L5 driving.

Even the old version doesn't- though the described capabilities at least look a lot closer in that one.



L5? Sure. But Tesla has never sold L5.

FSD on the other hand is absolutely a Tesla made up term. One which as I point out has had two entirely different definitions over time.




No, they should expect it to delivery everything Tesla promised as part of the FSD package.

Which, again, is not, and never has been, promised to deliver SAE L5 driving.

The only interesting part here is the pre-march-2019 buyers may have higher expectations of what they're owed than the post-march-2019 buyers.


This is not the first time you've had to have these facts explained to you either- and each time we ask you to show anything from tesla that proves you're not wrong you never post anything except SAE documents that don't mention FSD at all.

A car that is not level 5 is not a full self driving car. Partial self driving sure but are these cars not sold with the aim to get them to drive to the owner themselves on request? Self driving model 3 taxi fleet? Now that is Full self driving. The gradual transfer of human responsibility to the machine is not full self driving. Partial at best.
 
A car that is not level 5 is not a full self driving car.

There's no "industry wide" definition of "full self driving" though. It's a marketing term Tesla made up.

So it means whatever Tesla says it means.

A definition which has already changed at least once.


L5 is an industry-wide definition, but Tesla has never promised that specifically. (Pre-3/19 FSD is kinda vaguely close in some ways but still not quite exactly there... post-3/19 FSD listed features is pretty damn far from L5)

Your inability to separate these two things seems to be the problem here.


It reminds me of how people keep insisting "autopilot" is deceptive because it doesn't do everything for you.... (even though the term as originally used in aviation ALSO didn't do everything for you)
 
...L5 is an industry-wide definition, but Tesla has never promised that specifically. (Pre-3/19 FSD is kinda vaguely close in some ways but still not quite exactly there... post-3/19 FSD listed features is pretty damn far from L5)

Legal Tesla public documents/website might not specifically mention "L5, Level 5..." but verbally, Elon Musk has been mentioning that terminology throughout many presentations when talking about Tesla Autonomous Vehicle:

Tesla CEO Elon Musk announces that Level 5 self-driving hardware is here [Video Demonstration]
 
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Legal Tesla public documents/website might not specifically mention "L5, Level 5..." but verbally, Elon Musk has been mentioning that terminology throughout many presentations when talking about Tesla Autonomous Vehicle:

Tesla CEO Elon Musk announces that Level 5 self-driving hardware is here [Video Demonstration]


Only quote I find about that in your link is specific to the HW, not the sold SW features.

But then the link, from 2016, also has Musk saying this:

2016 Elon Musk said:
Our goal is, and I feel pretty good about this goal, that we’ll be able to do a demonstration drive of full autonomy all the way from LA to New York, from home in LA to let’s say dropping you off in Time Square in New York, and then having the car go park itself, by the end of next year, without the need for a single touch, including the charger

That goal turned out...overly ambitious :)

Speculative future goals spoken to the press != the actual features you were promised in writing when you paid for something of course.
 
A car that is not level 5 is not a full self driving car. Partial self driving sure but are these cars not sold with the aim to get them to drive to the owner themselves on request? Self driving model 3 taxi fleet? Now that is Full self driving. The gradual transfer of human responsibility to the machine is not full self driving. Partial at best.

But the point is there is no official sanctioned definition of the term "full self driving". You can assert all you like about what you think it should mean, but that's just your opinion. The SAE defines different levels of autonomy, of which level 5 is the highest. But no-where do they define "FSD" as level 5 or any other level. It's like the term "natural" when applied to food; there is no official definition and so pretty much anything can claim to be "natural" (unlike "organic" which is regulated).
 
OP joined yesterday. Five posts. This topic is such an obvious troll/plant, I don't know why people entertain it. There are legit threads going discussing this topic which OP could have found with simple searches. Give me a break.

While I agree with you that this topic is beat to death (and then some) on these boards, just because someone just joined does not make them automatically a troll / plant. With that being said, one thing I will agree with is, this OPs post is definitely designed to "get discussion going", and has all the hallmarks of a post like that.