Will Tesla be able to deliver FSD with HW3.0 and current Model 3 sensor suite, ever?

[SAronian]

I do think you're right. Cause it's quite dramatic and disturbs passengers. This is so serious I would think the forums would be ranting about it. So, it's just my Tesla. Just my luck!

My first drive with start/stop enabled came to a jerk-stop at almost every stop sign. Someone suggested a computer reboot, which I did and the second drive had smoother stops. When a confusing situation was encountered, like one stop light closely followed by a second, to a stop light following railroad tracks, the stop was jerky. But for more standard signals the stops were smooth.

 

[SergeyUser]

I wish they'd let you attach it to your Tesla profile so it doesn't get lost if some left of the bell curve genetic throwback douche canoe hits your car and totals it.

or if you just, you know, buy a new car because yours became old and decrepit and crappy while waiting for any of the FSD promises to materialize.

Tesla will do some form of that with FSD subscriptions later this year.. or later.

 

[run-the-joules]

Tesla will do some form of that with FSD subscriptions later this year.. or later.

I don't do subscriptions to software. Also moot since I bought FSD well over two years ago.

 

[SergeyUser]

I don't do subscriptions to software. Also moot since I bought FSD well over two years ago.

This IS solution to your transferability issue, however.

 

[lenb3]

My experience with a 2019 MX during a New England WINTER
makes me question the viability of a robo-taxi,
or even supervised FSD, with Tesla's current sensors.

Snow storms can easily obscure the lines on the road, even on the freeway.

Mid-trip, cameras sometimes report that they are offline, from snow, ice, sand,
or dried salt stuck to the outside of the car. Sometimes I pull over to wipe off a camera,
but how is a robo-taxi going to do that?

When the sun comes out, sometimes fog forms on the glass in front of the lens (Model X side-pillars)
and the camera goes off line. You can't wipe that off, you just have to wait.

 

[run-the-joules]

This IS solution to your transferability issue, however.

So is just letting me nominate any one car in my account as having FSD, and having FSD not follow my car when the car is removed from my account, unless I want FSD removed as well.

 

[SergeyUser]

So is just letting me nominate any one car in my account as having FSD, and having FSD not follow my car when the car is removed from my account, unless I want FSD removed as well.

That would be a great license to have ) Fixed cost for something you can use indefinitely, which keeps improving all the time. Makes sense.

 

[run-the-joules]

That would be a great license to have ) Fixed cost for something you can use indefinitely, which keeps improving all the time. Makes sense.

improving all the time, but still not what was advertised and what I paid for.

they got thousands of dollars and gave nothing in return for years. At this writing, I have one very very rough and buggy feature for my money.

they lied about giving us invitations to the early access program, and then lied about priority for update rollouts.

I think giving a little bit of flexibility might go a long way towards healing the unhealthy relationship that they’ve fostered with their customers.

 

[Actaeon]

When the sun comes out, sometimes fog forms on the glass in front of the lens (Model X side-pillars)
and the camera goes off line. You can't wipe that off, you just have to wait.

Yes, my experience also. In hot, dry Texas!

 

[CertLive]

Well at the moment its an unjustifiable price hike. Battery day city driving? Because there is only half a year left......

 

[BubblegumPete]

One thing I haven't seen mentioned here (although I've only read the last few pages so excuse me if it has) is large potholes and small debris in the road. It's possible that FSD will eventually be able to avoid debris (although how small?) but I just can't see how it's going to detect large holes as they lay below the ground and considering FSD struggles to distinguish different Stop signs at the moment, how is it going to tell the difference between a hole and a shadow?

 

[SergeyUser]

improving all the time, but still not what was advertised and what I paid for.

they got thousands of dollars and gave nothing in return for years. At this writing, I have one very very rough and buggy feature for my money.

they lied about giving us invitations to the early access program, and then lied about priority for update rollouts.

I think giving a little bit of flexibility might go a long way towards healing the unhealthy relationship that they’ve fostered with their customers.

So you want transferability as a concession for something that didn't exist, in a form of allowing this non-existing feature to be transferred between cars? Makes sense.

 

[Mr. Michael]

If Elon is so confident that car will be worth $100K with FSD in the future, why is the lease so expensive, given that you can’t buy the car at the end. It seems that lease pricing would be a lot less with the expectation of the value to be so high as a robo-taxi after the great success of the FSD development.

 

[CertLive]

OK so after absorbing this thread into my Tesla loving side I would like to add this. Elon Musk is a modern visionary. For e.g. Wernher von Braun he had a vision of going to the moon. It was totally not possible at that time apart from models and tv shows. But he fell in love with that dream, persuaded people with non stop perseverance and advanced humanity forward given the backing. I believe Elon Musk has the same mentality as this and dares to dream bold, talk big and see it through to the end given the opportunity and in some ways with our financial help. So when I do pull these quotes out to show when things are stated bear in mind they were only a year ago. Give Elon Musk 10 years from now like with Apollo and I think our planetary outreach and transport will change for the better.

 

[Knightshade]

OK so after absorbing this thread into my Tesla loving side I would like to add this. Elon Musk is a modern visionary. For e.g. Wernher von Braun he had a vision of going to the moon. It was totally not possible at that time apart from models and tv shows. But he fell in love with that dream, persuaded people with non stop perseverance and advanced humanity forward given the backing. I believe Elon Musk has the same mentality as this and dares to dream bold, talk big and see it through to the end given the opportunity and in some ways with our financial help.

FWIW, Von Braun was right on the moon... (and there to make to happen).

But he then insisted (literally right around the Apollo 11 landing in July of 1969) that we could be landing on Mars by 1982, and that hasn't quite worked out yet.

So when I do pull these quotes out to show when things are stated bear in mind they were only a year ago.

It was 2016 when he said Tesla would have a car automated to drive cross-country by end of 2017.



I agree Elon has a lot of vision and lofty goals... he does not always have a realistic idea of how long it will take to get there (nor even if he's using the right approach to do so)

 

[Mobster]

You should be eligible to upgrade to HW3.0, right? At least you should do that.

Yeah, you would think so. Last month when I scheduled an appointment with the Renton, Washington service center they used the words "not eligible" which struck a nerve. I responded with my history of paying for FSD. They re worded their reply a bit by saying "not eligible yet" and that 2.0 cars were not being done YET. The whole mess has been very stressful. I point out to them that I was told in 2017 all this would happen "later this year - per Elon" and of course, since then it has been wait, wait. I am 70 years old and would like to see this happen before I am dead!

 

[TLLMRRJ]

I don't do subscriptions to software.

That's pretty impossible these days. To say you don't do software subscriptions is basically the same as saying you're "living off the grid." I call BS that you don't have one single software subscription.

 

[run-the-joules]

That's pretty impossible these days. To say you don't do software subscriptions is basically the same as saying you're "living off the grid." I call BS that you don't have one single software subscription.

I have a few service subscriptions (hosting, for example, and Spotify), but no software subscriptions. Every commercial software license on my personal computer or phone is a persistent license.

My work computer has a few subscription packages on it, mind you.

 

[SammichLover]

Yeah, you would think so. Last month when I scheduled an appointment with the Renton, Washington service center they used the words "not eligible" which struck a nerve. I responded with my history of paying for FSD. They re worded their reply a bit by saying "not eligible yet" and that 2.0 cars were not being done YET. The whole mess has been very stressful. I point out to them that I was told in 2017 all this would happen "later this year - per Elon" and of course, since then it has been wait, wait. I am 70 years old and would like to see this happen before I am dead!

Bummer. I got offered (unprompted) and accepted my HW3 upgrade months ago when I went in for service (my last one covered under bumper-to-bumper), I believe in January. I haven't been following this. What's the % of the old 2.0 fleet that they've worked through, so far? Do any of the 3rd party info gathering tools have an estimate on this?

 

[ram1901]

It is amazing to read many of these responses because they show, what I believe, is an unrealistic understanding of what a full self driving system will be capable of doing.
In terms of aircraft, small to medium size planes avoid flying in extreme weather with or without autopilot systems. Drivers should do the same. It is ridiculous to believe that full driving is going to allow you to drive thru a blizzard or hurricane. Sensible drivers know to stay off the roads in such conditions. But what about 'normal' driving conditions. Humans have trouble navigating day to day driving conditions as it is. An affordable FSD system cannot be expected to do that much better than a human. It is a fantasy to believe otherwise. Under present road conditions and distracted drivers, such capability would require onboard super computers, a suite of sensors that are unaffordable and unattractive and even then would result in jerky, slow driving responses to a busy commuter route.
Under near perfect conditions, with well marked roadways, intersections and other obvious obstacles, full self driving using Tesla's vision system could successfully navigate without driver input. But such a world does not, nor will it ever exist in a free society.
To answer the original question posed in this post, if we are realistic about our expectations for the definition of full self driving than I believe in ideal driving conditions it is already possible. The question becomes when will the obstacles to FSD be removed to allow it to work reliably.
Think about what Tesla has already publicly disclosed and accomplished at a beta level, sign and signal recognition, vehicle and pedestrian identification, obstacle i.d., navigation to a destinations, autopark, traffic awareness, self steering and braking and growing AI data based to side in split second decision making. Did I miss anything? IMHO