Will Tesla be able to deliver FSD with HW3.0 and current Model 3 sensor suite, ever?

[Dutchie]

Wow, lot of negativity here even to the point of how Tesla should compensate the false promises. I agree it has taken a lot longer than promised and I too think sometimes that FSD is far off. That being said I do think that FSD is will happen sooner rather than later:

1. Tesla continues to sell the product. If they didn't have confidence that they will deliver in a reasonable timeframe they would have taken the option off the list a long time ago;
2. They continue to invest millions in the whole project. I think they told us that ithe FSD-software team is where most of R&D budget is going to. If they know that they could not get the results with the current sensor suite than they would have said so by now;
3. They are actively upgrading cars to be capable of FUll Self Driving by swapping the HW2.x with the FSD-computer. Why would they do that if they have not got it confidence that that computer with the current sensor suite would deliver Full Self Driving?
4. Elon's timing is off most of the time but he is getting better at it - especially when the timespan is shorter. Elon now says that FSD with the potential Robotaxi fleet will be a reality at the end of the year which is only seven months away. Yes, it sounds unbelievable but with the huge amount of data there is an exponential component in AI learning.

I think the next 6 to 12 month will be revolutionary. A great time to be alive.

 

[Knightshade]

Tesla continues to sell the product. If they didn't have confidence that they will deliver in a reasonable timeframe they would have taken the option off the list a long time ago;

To be fair- they did.

The product they sold on the website from Oct 2016 through Oct 2018 was taken off the menu.... you could still get it by special request through Feb 2019, then it was gone totally.

That was the L4 self driving FSD. They don't sell it anymore, and haven't for over a year now.

The new FSD instead has a specific list of features, promising a much narrower, and lower-automation level, of driving than the original FSD.

See previous posts in the last page or two for why it's likely they did this.

They continue to invest millions in the whole project. I think they told us that ithe FSD-software team is where most of R&D budget is going to. If they know that they could not get the results with the current sensor suite than they would have said so by now;

Or maybe they're just dial back expecations. By reducing what that promise when they sell the feature.

Which, ya know, is what they did.

They are actively upgrading cars to be capable of FUll Self Driving by swapping the HW2.x with the FSD-computer. Why would they do that if they have not got it confidence that that computer with the current sensor suite would deliver Full Self Driving?

Because they explicitly promised it, in writing, multiple times... and several specific promised features require it (the stopsign/stoplight one for example).

The fact they need it to deliver ANY of the promised stuff does not automatically mean it allows them to deliver ALL of it of course.

Elon's timing is off most of the time but he is getting better at it - especially when the timespan is shorter. Elon now says that FSD with the potential Robotaxi fleet will be a reality at the end of the year which is only seven months away..

Of course he said that last year too- only about 7 months away. And that came and went.

Like in 2016 he told us cross-country FSD trip by end of 2017, came and went.

Then 2018....came and went.

It's 2020 now- no sign of it.

 

[SergeyUser]

Again- that's from the INVESTOR day showing a forward-looking statement of what they HOPE to put on consumer cars some time in the future.

Nobody (I don't think anyway) doubts they WANT to deliver higher than L2 driver aids.


But what is in that video is absolutely not what they are selling to end users today

This is published to everyone to see on Tesla YouTube channel. A reasonable person buying FSD will assume that it is what he/she will get some time in the future by paying now. But you are right, there is no link on the order page to this video.

I would classify someone using the same term ‘FSD’ at the same time with different meaning in two different instances as being (probably even intentionally) deceitful.

 

[SergeyUser]

Wow, lot of negativity here even to the point of how Tesla should compensate the false promises. I agree it has taken a lot longer than promised and I too think sometimes that FSD is far off. That being said I do think that FSD is will happen sooner rather than later:

1. Tesla continues to sell the product. If they didn't have confidence that they will deliver in a reasonable timeframe they would have taken the option off the list a long time ago;
2. They continue to invest millions in the whole project. I think they told us that ithe FSD-software team is where most of R&D budget is going to. If they know that they could not get the results with the current sensor suite than they would have said so by now;
3. They are actively upgrading cars to be capable of FUll Self Driving by swapping the HW2.x with the FSD-computer. Why would they do that if they have not got it confidence that that computer with the current sensor suite would deliver Full Self Driving?
4. Elon's timing is off most of the time but he is getting better at it - especially when the timespan is shorter. Elon now says that FSD with the potential Robotaxi fleet will be a reality at the end of the year which is only seven months away. Yes, it sounds unbelievable but with the huge amount of data there is an exponential component in AI learning.

I think the next 6 to 12 month will be revolutionary. A great time to be alive.

Elon Musk is CEO and biggest shareholder of Tesla. It is well known that he does not like when engineers say "no" to him. Here is an article describing this: President of SpaceX: This is what it's like working for Elon Musk

“First of all, when Elon says something, you have to pause and not immediately blurt out, ‘Well, that’s impossible,’ or, ‘There’s no way we’re going to do that. I don’t know how.’ So you zip it, and you think about it, and you find ways to get that done,” says Shotwell.

What if, just if he does not understand the technology enough to grasp its limitations in its current form? There is no one to question him in that matter. I'm not saying this is TRUE, I'm saying this is possible.

What it means (if true) is that everyone will learn the truth, including Elon Musk himself, in a hard(er) way.

 

[Dutchie]

To be fair- they did.

The product they sold on the website from Oct 2016 through Oct 2018 was taken off the menu.... you could still get it by special request through Feb 2019, then it was gone totally.

That was the L4 self driving FSD. They don't sell it anymore, and haven't for over a year now.

Are you sure? I just checked, and this is what is says now. Looks L4 to me

All Tesla vehicles have the hardware needed in the future for full self-driving in almost all circumstances, at a safety level we believe will be at least twice as good as the average human driver

 

[Dutchie]

Elon Musk is CEO and biggest shareholder of Tesla. It is well known that he does not like when engineers say "no" to him. Here is an article describing this: President of SpaceX: This is what it's like working for Elon Musk

“First of all, when Elon says something, you have to pause and not immediately blurt out, ‘Well, that’s impossible,’ or, ‘There’s no way we’re going to do that. I don’t know how.’ So you zip it, and you think about it, and you find ways to get that done,” says Shotwell.

What if, just if he does not understand the technology enough to grasp its limitations in its current form? There is no one to question him in that matter. I'm not saying this is TRUE, I'm saying this is possible.

What it means (if true) is that everyone will learn the truth, including Elon Musk himself, in a hard(er) way.

Why does Karpathy et.al want to do this if they know that it wouldn't work? If that is the case they would have gone a long time ago

 

[SergeyUser]

Why does Karpathy et.al want to do this if they know that it wouldn't work? If that is the case they would have gone a long time ago

If you want to work for Tesla, this is the only way. And I'm not saying it will not work. It will work *eventually*. My claim is that it will not work for current owners with current sensor suite and current 3.0 hardware across all USA.

 

[Knightshade]

Are you sure? I just checked, and this is what is says now. Looks L4 to me

Yes?

here's what it actually says you're buying during the process to buy the option

One on the left is today. One on the right is March 2019 until a few weeks ago.

Neither promises L4. Or even L3.

Now here's what the purchase of FSD promised before the March 2019 change-

 

[Knightshade]

This is published to everyone to see on Tesla YouTube channel

Ok. But it does not, anywhere in the video, claim to be an existing thing they are selling today (the functionality shown in the video that is).

It's aspirational.


There was a similar video back in 2016 (that turned out to be very very very highly staged- the 2019 is much better in that regard even if the route is cherry picked)

 

[Dutchie]

Yes?

here's what it actually says you're buying during the process to buy the option

One on the left is today. One on the right is March 2019 until a few weeks ago.

Neither promises L4. Or even L3.



View attachment 542467




Now here's what the purchase of FSD promised before the March 2019 change-


View attachment 542468

My goodness, don't narrow yourself. Look what Elon says on Twitter, look what he says on every shareholders call, look what he says on investors day. Even the name "Full Self Driving". Do you really think he would put himself in such a liable position if he had 100% that it will happen?! Remember, key knows more than you and I combined.

 

[Dutchie]

If you want to work for Tesla, this is the only way. And I'm not saying it will not work. It will work *eventually*. My claim is that it will not work for current owners with current sensor suite and current 3.0 hardware across all USA.

Well, it says on their site that hardware is capable of a Full Self Driving. Again, if they weren't confident they would not state it, not on their site, not on every shareholders call, not on Investors Day, and not on Twitter. They are closest to the fire and they know more than all of us combined.

 

[Webeevdrivers]

LOL. In Canada our FSD doesn’t even stop at stop signs or stop lights yet.

I think there will be a significant update between now and end August.

Jmho.

 

[Atari2600]

As long as there are no glare, rain, dirt or snow camera obstructions I think they will get there. I think the only long term issue will be camera obstructions.

 

[Knightshade]

My goodness, don't narrow yourself. Look what Elon says on Twitter, look what he says on every shareholders call, look what he says on investors day. Even the name "Full Self Driving". Do you really think he would put himself in such a liable position if he had 100% that it will happen?! Remember, key knows more than you and I combined.

Again you keep confusing forward-looking aspirational claims (what elons on calls and such) with "the terms of the actual thing you purchased" which was shown in the screen shots previously posted.


This might help you out-

Forward-looking statement - Wikipedia


In United States business law, a forward-looking statement or safe harbor statement is a statement that cannot sustain itself as merely a historical fact. A forward-looking statement predicts, projects, or uses future events as expectations or possibilities

These statements can often be misleading, as they can be mistaken for factual statements, while they are actually speculation. According to United States Code 15 Section 78u-5, a forward-looking statement may include future economic performance such as revenues or income, plans for future operations, or use of a report written by an outside reviewer


So no- Elon is NOT on the hook for anything if one of those forward looking statements does not pan out.

Well, it says on their site that hardware is capable of a Full Self Driving

Which doesn't help you much without the software.

Which since March 2019 hasn't promised anything more than L2

 

[SergeyUser]

Ok. But it does not, anywhere in the video, claim to be an existing thing they are selling today (the functionality shown in the video that is).

It's aspirational.


There was a similar video back in 2016 (that turned out to be very very very highly staged- the 2019 is much better in that regard even if the route is cherry picked)

Except that video links to Tesla site and currently missing FSD page: ts.la/FSD

Edit: I have to correct myself, Tesla (at least now) just redirects to its home page:
Electric Cars, Solar Panels & Clean Energy Storage | Tesla

So basically what that means is if you are buying FSD, don't look all these videos/promos. They mean nothing (except for something aspirational in the future) and as per @Knightshade are completely unrelated to FSD option you are buying now.

 

[SergeyUser]

Well, it says on their site that hardware is capable of a Full Self Driving. Again, if they weren't confident they would not state it, not on their site, not on every shareholders call, not on Investors Day, and not on Twitter. They are closest to the fire and they know more than all of us combined.

Elon Musk by his own admission had many ventures which were unlikely to succeed (namely SpaceX). So what Tesla is promising is likely, but not guaranteed. It makes sense to promise, though - worst case scenario are liability claims, possibly less than 1$bln. This is something Tesla can handle. It is a bet, something worth the shot. But certainly not something you will get 100%.

 

[NOLADriver]

I think the FSD will have some type of requirement of pre driving to it. Like the route had to be "approved," for lack of a better term, for the car to accept it as a robo taxi route. Imagine that once we get to the end of these updates and it does some type of city driving it will start to understand routes and give them a percentage numerical. The higher the numerical the more the car says the route is driveable with little to no "errors" or weird judgment calls. Once it (Mothership) memorizes routes and gives them a success probability numerical then the car will allow FSD on it. Meaning you get in your 3 and nav a route to the store with FSD, it calculates if the route is easy or problematic and it gives you a go/no go on the FSD part of it.

This initially then eventually more complex routes are allowed. This is me totally guessing and I have absolutely no idea if this is true or any facts....But this swirls around in my head as to how we will get to FSD in 10-15 years.

 

[smatthew]

I think the FSD will have some type of requirement of pre driving to it. Like the route had to be "approved," for lack of a better term, for the car to accept it as a robo taxi route. Imagine that once we get to the end of these updates and it does some type of city driving it will start to understand routes and give them a percentage numerical. The higher the numerical the more the car says the route is driveable with little to no "errors" or weird judgment calls. Once it (Mothership) memorizes routes and gives them a success probability numerical then the car will allow FSD on it. Meaning you get in your 3 and nav a route to the store with FSD, it calculates if the route is easy or problematic and it gives you a go/no go on the FSD part of it.

This initially then eventually more complex routes are allowed. This is me totally guessing and I have absolutely no idea if this is true or any facts....But this swirls around in my head as to how we will get to FSD in 10-15 years.

I think it's more likely that the car just pulls over and says "Driver take over" Once they get the number of "driver assistance needed" events down, they could offer a remote assist subscription. Imagine - pay $19.99 a month and a remote driver will take over if needed.
AutoPilot is pretty darn good these days - compared to August 2018 it's light years ahead. I can only imagine what improvements we will see in the next two years.

 

[SergeyUser]

I think the FSD will have some type of requirement of pre driving to it. Like the route had to be "approved," for lack of a better term, for the car to accept it as a robo taxi route. Imagine that once we get to the end of these updates and it does some type of city driving it will start to understand routes and give them a percentage numerical. The higher the numerical the more the car says the route is driveable with little to no "errors" or weird judgment calls. Once it (Mothership) memorizes routes and gives them a success probability numerical then the car will allow FSD on it. Meaning you get in your 3 and nav a route to the store with FSD, it calculates if the route is easy or problematic and it gives you a go/no go on the FSD part of it.

This initially then eventually more complex routes are allowed. This is me totally guessing and I have absolutely no idea if this is true or any facts....But this swirls around in my head as to how we will get to FSD in 10-15 years.

This is called geofencing. Everyone does that except for Tesla.

 

[Wlagrange]

Yes?

here's what it actually says you're buying during the process to buy the option

One on the left is today. One on the right is March 2019 until a few weeks ago.

Neither promises L4. Or even L3.



View attachment 542467




Now here's what the purchase of FSD promised before the March 2019 change-


View attachment 542468

I agree what tesla did with changing the advertised features of fsd is shady. I didn’t scrutinize the wording of the features when I opted to order my car with fsd back in October 2019. If I had, I wouldn’t have bought it.

Now having owned the car and reading some of the posts in this thread, I don’t see how the car as currently equipped could ever safely make a right turn from a stop sign or stop light onto a main road where cars might be traveling 50 mph perpendicular to the car. There is no camera or radar looking to either side to tell the car it would be safe to turn onto the road.