Will Tesla be the #1 luxury manufacturer in California in 2018 ?

[dmode]

While driving back from work the other day, I noticed the sheer number of Model 3s in the Bay Area. While there was always a ton of S and X, things seem to have moved another gear as the mass production of Model 3 becomes a reality.

This got me thinking whether Tesla will be the leading luxury manufacturer (by new vehicle sales) in California as early as 2018. Based on my very limited information, my math goes something like this - total 2018 Model S + X + 3 = 250K sales (100k Model S/X + 150K Model 3).

150K Model 3 based on the assumption that 50K have already been sold (per Bloomberg calculator), and assuming 5K/wk for the rest of the year (20wks @ 5k).

I don't really have a good source for this, but assuming 1/3rd of all sales are in CA, Tesla will sell ~83K vehicles in the state. And based on this article from Electrek, Mercedes is the leading luxury manufacturer with ~80K vehicles in 2017.

Would love to hear other people's opinion on this and update my assumptions.

 

[RobStark]

Here are the official numbers for Q1 2018

https://www.cncda.org/wp-content/uploads/California-Covering-1Q-2018.pdf

Q2 numbers should be out in about a month.

Through Q1 Tesla is at 7,530 vs Mercedes at 16,247 and BMW at 16,082

Tesla will need to go from 1% CA market share to about 3.4%.

Tough but not impossible.

 

[Xminus6]

In my area Model 3s are popping up like rabbits. Short drive to my kids’ camp today (literally about 3 miles) I passed 3 new ones not including our own. I see more of them every day. It’s pretty surprising.

 

[outie]

Pretty sure the answer is no because Tesla doesn’t make luxury cars. Premium yes, luxury no.

 

[RobStark]

Pretty sure the answer is no because Tesla doesn’t make luxury cars. Premium yes, luxury no.

luxury priced.

Premium,luxury, sports performance.

Semantics.

 

[dmode]

Pretty sure the answer is no because Tesla doesn’t make luxury cars. Premium yes, luxury no.

By luxury I meant the car segment that Audi, BMW, Merc, Range Rover etc are in. I thought they were referred as luxury, but I will settle for Premium as well

 

[Barklikeadog]

luxury priced.

Premium,luxury, sports performance.

Semantics.

What are you talking about? The model 3 is the affordable mass market car for the common man.

 

[RobStark]

What are you talking about? The model 3 is the affordable mass market car for the common man.

Tesla sells vehicles in the $49k-$167k price range.

Next year it will be $35k-$167k price range. Eventually topping out at $250k when the new Roadster launches. That is a premium/luxury automaker.

Entry level luxury class and mass market are not mutually exclusive.

Average new vehicle transaction price in the USA is $36,270.
Average New-Car Prices Rise Nearly 4 Percent For January 2018 On Shifting Sales Mix, According To Kelley Blue Book

Over half of new vehicles sold in the USA will be over $35k.

The "common man" does not buy new cars but used.

Tesla never said a brand new Model 3 is for the "common man."

Eventually Joe Six Pack will be able to buy a used 6 year old Model 3, Model Y, or Pickup.

 

[ZeApelido]

Average new vehicle transaction price in the USA is $36,270.
Average New-Car Prices Rise Nearly 4 Percent For January 2018 On Shifting Sales Mix, According To Kelley Blue Book

Over half of new vehicles sold in the USA will be over $35k.
/QUOTE]

Average new price is over $36k, and median new price is over $35k?

 

[RobStark]

AFAIK there is no good public data on median new car prices but historically average and median prices are very close together in the USA as ATP fit rather will on a bell curve.

I just assumed that is still the case.

As opposed to China that has a very large luxury car market and a gigantic sub $10k car market with very relatively little in between.

 

[Barklikeadog]

Tesla sells vehicles in the $49k-$167k price range.

Next year it will be $35k-$167k price range. Eventually topping out at $250k when the new Roadster launches. That is a premium/luxury automaker.

Entry level luxury class and mass market are not mutually exclusive.

Average new vehicle transaction price in the USA is $36,270.
Average New-Car Prices Rise Nearly 4 Percent For January 2018 On Shifting Sales Mix, According To Kelley Blue Book

Over half of new vehicles sold in the USA will be over $35k.

The "common man" does not buy new cars but used.

Tesla never said a brand new Model 3 is for the "common man."

Eventually Joe Six Pack will be able to buy a used 6 year old Model 3, Model Y, or Pickup.

But the plan for the Model 3 was high volume affordable mass market car. what exactly do you consider the common man?

 

[RobStark]

But the plan for the Model 3 was high volume affordable mass market car. what exactly do you consider the common man?

A man with a spouse and two children with a household income of ~$50k.

That guy should not buy a brand new car. $35k, $25k or otherwise.

The plan was a mass market car that over half of new car buyers in first world countries could make monthly payments without significant sacrifice, like food, healthcare, or retirement savings.

Eventually all these cars will be part of the Tesla Network. Whether new or after 10 years. Then everybody with $3 can buy Tesla TaaS.

 

[RobStark]

2018 California Brand Market Share

Total Units 2,001,995

Toyota.........16.7%
Honda.........12.4%
Ford.............8.8%
Chevrolet.....7.9%
Nissan.........6.3%
Mercedes.....4.0%
Subaru.........3.9%
BMW............3.5%
Tesla...........3.5%
Jeep.............3.3%
Kia................3.3%
Lexus...........3.1%
Hyundai........3.0%
Mazda..........2.3%
VW Brand....2.3%
Audi.............2.1%
Ram.............2.0%
Dodge..........1.7%
GMC.............1.7%
Acura............1.2%
Infiniti............0.9%
Land Rover....0.9%
Chrysler........0.7%
Porsche........0.7%
Volvo.............0.6%
Cadillac........0.6%
Buick............0.5%
Mini..............0.4%
Mitsubishi.....0.4%
Alfa Romeo...0.3%
Jaguar..........0.3%
Lincoln..........0.3%
Genesis........0.1%
Maserati........0.1%

BTW Tesla ended up 409 units behind BMW.

https://www.cncda.org/wp-content/uploads/Cal-Covering-4Q-18.pdf

 

[Darren Donovan]

To most of the public, one look at the interior of any Tesla vehicles quickly removes the word "luxury" from their impression. And yes, I understand that most forum members appreciate the simplicity of Tesla interiors.
To most of the public, one look at the prices of Tesla cars, and the assumption of "luxury" quickly comes to mind.
The public doesn't understand that most of the cost is battery and drivetrain.

 

[RobStark]

To most of the public, one look at the interior of any Tesla vehicles quickly removes the word "luxury" from their impression. And yes, I understand that most forum members appreciate the simplicity of Tesla interiors.
To most of the public, one look at the prices of Tesla cars, and the assumption of "luxury" quickly comes to mind.
The public doesn't understand that most of the cost is battery and drivetrain.

Tesla's crash worthiness puts it in a league of its own.

Standard and optional Auto Pilot features puts Tesla in the premium category. To get Cadillac Supercruise you need to order the most expensive Cadillacs in their top trims. None of the systems work as well as Auto Pilot.

Long term powertrain durability will likely put Tesla in a league of their own as well.

MB's MB-Tex and BMW's Leatherette is akin to Tesla's Vegan Leather. Nope Tesla doesn't offer genuine leather or as nice a wood package. Tesla does offer luxury touches not offered by others such as Billionaire Doors aka FWD.

 

[dethman]

M3 is definitely not luxury. Sort of a go cart with leatherette kind of feel to it.

 

[TheGrimSweeper]

What is luxury in a car then? I have the white interior M3 and I only get complements on how nice it looks.