While driving back from work the other day, I noticed the sheer number of Model 3s in the Bay Area. While there was always a ton of S and X, things seem to have moved another gear as the mass production of Model 3 becomes a reality. This got me thinking whether Tesla will be the leading luxury manufacturer (by new vehicle sales) in California as early as 2018. Based on my very limited information, my math goes something like this - total 2018 Model S + X + 3 = 250K sales (100k Model S/X + 150K Model 3). 150K Model 3 based on the assumption that 50K have already been sold (per Bloomberg calculator), and assuming 5K/wk for the rest of the year (20wks @ 5k). I don't really have a good source for this, but assuming 1/3rd of all sales are in CA, Tesla will sell ~83K vehicles in the state. And based on this article from Electrek, Mercedes is the leading luxury manufacturer with ~80K vehicles in 2017. Would love to hear other people's opinion on this and update my assumptions.