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Will Tesla be the #1 luxury manufacturer in California in 2018 ?

Discussion in 'Tesla, Inc.' started by dmode, Jul 16, 2018.

  1. dmode

    dmode Member

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    While driving back from work the other day, I noticed the sheer number of Model 3s in the Bay Area. While there was always a ton of S and X, things seem to have moved another gear as the mass production of Model 3 becomes a reality.

    This got me thinking whether Tesla will be the leading luxury manufacturer (by new vehicle sales) in California as early as 2018. Based on my very limited information, my math goes something like this - total 2018 Model S + X + 3 = 250K sales (100k Model S/X + 150K Model 3).

    150K Model 3 based on the assumption that 50K have already been sold (per Bloomberg calculator), and assuming 5K/wk for the rest of the year (20wks @ 5k).

    I don't really have a good source for this, but assuming 1/3rd of all sales are in CA, Tesla will sell ~83K vehicles in the state. And based on this article from Electrek, Mercedes is the leading luxury manufacturer with ~80K vehicles in 2017.

    Would love to hear other people's opinion on this and update my assumptions.
     
  2. RobStark

    RobStark Well-Known Member

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    • Helpful x 1
  3. Xminus6

    Xminus6 Member

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    In my area Model 3s are popping up like rabbits. Short drive to my kids’ camp today (literally about 3 miles) I passed 3 new ones not including our own. I see more of them every day. It’s pretty surprising.
     
  4. outie

    outie Active Member

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    Pretty sure the answer is no because Tesla doesn’t make luxury cars. Premium yes, luxury no.
     
  5. RobStark

    RobStark Well-Known Member

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    luxury priced.

    Premium,luxury, sports performance.

    Semantics.
     
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  6. dmode

    dmode Member

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    By luxury I meant the car segment that Audi, BMW, Merc, Range Rover etc are in. I thought they were referred as luxury, but I will settle for Premium as well
     
  7. Barklikeadog

    Barklikeadog Active Member

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    What are you talking about? The model 3 is the affordable mass market car for the common man.
     
  8. RobStark

    RobStark Well-Known Member

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    Tesla sells vehicles in the $49k-$167k price range.

    Next year it will be $35k-$167k price range. Eventually topping out at $250k when the new Roadster launches. That is a premium/luxury automaker.

    Entry level luxury class and mass market are not mutually exclusive.

    Average new vehicle transaction price in the USA is $36,270.
    Average New-Car Prices Rise Nearly 4 Percent For January 2018 On Shifting Sales Mix, According To Kelley Blue Book

    Over half of new vehicles sold in the USA will be over $35k.

    The "common man" does not buy new cars but used.

    Tesla never said a brand new Model 3 is for the "common man."

    Eventually Joe Six Pack will be able to buy a used 6 year old Model 3, Model Y, or Pickup.
     
  9. ZeApelido

    ZeApelido Member

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  10. RobStark

    RobStark Well-Known Member

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    AFAIK there is no good public data on median new car prices but historically average and median prices are very close together in the USA as ATP fit rather will on a bell curve.

    I just assumed that is still the case.

    As opposed to China that has a very large luxury car market and a gigantic sub $10k car market with very relatively little in between.
     
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  11. Barklikeadog

    Barklikeadog Active Member

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    But the plan for the Model 3 was high volume affordable mass market car. what exactly do you consider the common man?
     
  12. RobStark

    RobStark Well-Known Member

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    A man with a spouse and two children with a household income of ~$50k.

    That guy should not buy a brand new car. $35k, $25k or otherwise.

    The plan was a mass market car that over half of new car buyers in first world countries could make monthly payments without significant sacrifice, like food, healthcare, or retirement savings.

    Eventually all these cars will be part of the Tesla Network. Whether new or after 10 years. Then everybody with $3 can buy Tesla TaaS.
     

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