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Will Tesla beat delivery expectations in Q2?

Discussion in 'TSLA Investor Discussions' started by TSLADream, Jun 18, 2016.

  1. TSLADream

    TSLADream Member

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    As Tesla has started delivering Model X in good numbers in June, I think Tesla may surprise with number of deliveries in Q2. I am expecting above 18K+ delivery with 14K Model S and about 4K Model X? Is this a possibility?
     
  2. geneclean55

    geneclean55 Member

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    According to the insideEV website estimate, Tesla have already delivered around 2500 MX within the US in April/May. With 1600 delivered in May alone, we should expect even more delivered during the usual June end of quarter rush. Also, this doesn't include some world-wide deliveries which will be included in the final tally for June.
     
  3. FlatSix911

    FlatSix911 918 Hybrid

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    Current reports point to 2,000 cars (Model S and X total) produced every week ...
     
  4. Cattledog

    Cattledog Active Member

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    Yes. Replay of Q1 2013 announcement's impact on TSLA.
     
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  5. ZachShahan

    ZachShahan Member

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    InsideEVs is just guessing, like everyone else.
     
  6. Ryo

    Ryo Member

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    #6 Ryo, Jun 19, 2016
    Last edited: Jun 19, 2016
  7. Cattledog

    Cattledog Active Member

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    In many ways, a big beat on production and a meet on deliveries might be better appreciated by the market. I'm saying 22k produced and 17k delivered is better news than 20k produced and 19k delivered (although the latter would produce an hour of share price euphoria).
     
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  8. dennis

    dennis P85D

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    That depends on whether you believe Tesla is production constrained or demand constrained. 19K delivered would help to debunk the demand constrained litany from the shorts.
     
  9. Johan

    Johan Took a TSLA bear test. Came back negative.

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    Otoh what would be the point of producing 22k if demand isn't there?
     
  10. SSD420

    SSD420 Member

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  11. dennis

    dennis P85D

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    According to the shorts if production exceeds deliveries by 5K many of those would be inventory cars that will end up being discounted.
     
  12. larmor

    larmor Member

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    JIT-just in time. Neither over nor under delivery, just the right amount would be the best outcome...
     
  13. TaoJones

    TaoJones Beyond Driven

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    The higher-mileage GRV cars and lease returns, not to mention trade-ins, that are not mileage-eligible for CPO will make great loaner cars and reduce ICE rental expense.

    These will also reduce the need for inventory cars at least for that purpose, leaving them for showroom demos (discounted) and lot sales (not discounted). There aren't many of the latter, but there are a few here and there at the multi-purpose larger properties (see Blue Ash, Ohio and Buena Park, CA for example).

    Having said all of that, I believe that within limits for Q2, Tesla will get a pass if there's a significant gap between produced and delivered. With the exception of the known shorts, we are still at the point at which most analysts will respond positively to higher production regardless of net units delivered - again, within limits.
     
  14. adiggs

    adiggs Active Member

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    If Tesla has a bigger gap than expected between produced and delivered (say the 22k produced / 17k delivered mentioned upthread as a hypothetical), all they need to do is include color in the earnings report indicating how many of the excess production are in-transit to customers of the 3 main geographies (Americas, Europe, Asia), and how many are for inventory / demo / loaners.

    I follow production more closely than delivery, but I'm also holding for the long term (currently thinking 2020+), so the quarterly delivery fluctuations are irrelevant to me. Ramping production is required if we're going to hit 500k in 2018.
     
  15. doctoxics

    doctoxics Member

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    The key to the ramp to 500K will be the Model 3 production line. Can't wait to learn the capacity of this line and the rate of ramp that Tesla anticipates. Now that Tesla has the money (and the tax break from California), they have likely begun work on the Model 3 line somewhere in the Fremont factory.
     
  16. TSLADream

    TSLADream Member

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    Thank you for your response. If they deliver more than 17K, I think the TSLA will give the bears a run. With Model S lower-priced version, 80K+ is not looking impossible. Why do the bears believe that Tesla won't deliver 80K cars?
     
  17. strangethingintheland

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    Well, obviously they didn't meet their numbers, to respond to the OP's initial question.

    If there's good news, it's this comment from the press release (more particularly as it relates to demand):

    With continued productivity improvements, Tesla expects output to reach 2,200 vehicles per week in Q3 and 2,400 vehicles per week in Q4. Current order rate trends and backlog support production at those levels.
     
  18. ZeroDarkSilver

    ZeroDarkSilver HEPA cleaning your atmosphere, you're welcome

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    #19 ZeroDarkSilver, Jul 3, 2016
    Last edited: Jul 3, 2016
    Perhaps the Model 3 announcement had a larger than expected cannibalization of Model S orders. Consider:
    • Model 3 unveil was Mar 31, right before the start of Q2.
    • They knew it would cannibalize S to some extent, so had the Refresh ready to launch on Apr 12 to re-stimulate demand for S.
    • Cannibalization still greater than expected through April, so they introduce 75D on May 6.
    • Demand still softer through May, so 60/60D introduced Jun 9.
    • Tesla specifically markets 60/60D to people on the Model 3 waiting list on Jun 15 (Tesla Motors on Twitter)
    • Lower $66k price works, demand re-accelerates post Jun 9.
    • The press release says half of Q2 production was concentrated in the last 4 weeks, consistent with a late surge.
    To this I'll add that when I ordered my car in mid-Apr, the estimated delivery date was 40 days out, which seemed quite short. Today, the BTO configurator is quoting Sep delivery for Model S, which is 60 days out, and late Sep for Model X, which is almost 90 days out.

    This suggests they're still supply-limited, and it's encouraging that production is ramping consistently quarter-over-quarter, even if they did miss their 20,000 cars produced target.
     
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  19. TSLADream

    TSLADream Member

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    #20 TSLADream, Jul 3, 2016
    Last edited: Jul 3, 2016
    ZeroDarkSilver, I love your optimistic thinking. i think it might be a buying opportunity if the SP hits below $175. Bears will be worried about the increased production rate. The good news is that Model X delivery is increasing but I am a little concerned about the Model S delivery declining. Is it because Model X took most of the assembly line or the demand went down?
     

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