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According to the insideEV website estimate, Tesla have already delivered around 2500 MX within the US in April/May. With 1600 delivered in May alone, we should expect even more delivered during the usual June end of quarter rush. Also, this doesn't include some world-wide deliveries which will be included in the final tally for June.
In many ways, a big beat on production and a meet on deliveries might be better appreciated by the market. I'm saying 22k produced and 17k delivered is better news than 20k produced and 19k delivered (although the latter would produce an hour of share price euphoria).
That depends on whether you believe Tesla is production constrained or demand constrained. 19K delivered would help to debunk the demand constrained litany from the shorts.
Let's make it a pool!We should open up a poll for this
EDIT: added poll: POLL: How many deliveries will Tesla make in Q2?
According to the shorts if production exceeds deliveries by 5K many of those would be inventory cars that will end up being discounted.Otoh what would be the point of producing 22k if demand isn't there?
If Tesla has a bigger gap than expected between produced and delivered (say the 22k produced / 17k delivered mentioned upthread as a hypothetical), all they need to do is include color in the earnings report indicating how many of the excess production are in-transit to customers of the 3 main geographies (Americas, Europe, Asia), and how many are for inventory / demo / loaners.
I follow production more closely than delivery, but I'm also holding for the long term (currently thinking 2020+), so the quarterly delivery fluctuations are irrelevant to me. Ramping production is required if we're going to hit 500k in 2018.