TMC is an independent, primarily volunteer organization that relies on ad revenue to cover its operating costs. Please consider whitelisting TMC on your ad blocker or making a Paypal contribution here: paypal.me/SupportTMC

Will Tesla eventually become the world's largest automaker (by number of cars sold)?

Discussion in 'Tesla Motors' started by JRod0802, Feb 19, 2014.

?

Will Tesla eventually become the world's largest automaker (by number of cars sold)?

  1. woYes, they'll eventually be the rld's largest automaker

    21 vote(s)
    23.6%
  2. No, they'll eventually be second or third largest, but not the largest

    15 vote(s)
    16.9%
  3. No, they'll eventually be BMW-sized

    37 vote(s)
    41.6%
  4. No, they'll eventually be Porsche-sized

    6 vote(s)
    6.7%
  5. No, they'll eventually be bought out

    9 vote(s)
    10.1%
  6. No, they'll never even become Porsche-sized

    1 vote(s)
    1.1%
  1. JRod0802

    JRod0802 Member

    Joined:
    Dec 15, 2010
    Messages:
    661
    Location:
    Boston, MA
    I pulled this quote from austinEV from the Q4 2013 thread. It always seemed to me that Tesla was aspiring to more of a BMW-sized automaker, rather than the largest automaker in the world. I was wondering what the people on this forum thought. Will Tesla grow to be that large? Has Tesla ever said anything about wanting to grow so large?

    When Tesla becomes BMW-sized, will they stop there and just focus on making better technology, or will they continue to release more new models and grow to be the largest automaker in the world?



    Edit: Oops... I made a typo in option 1 of the poll... could a mod remove the "wo" at the beginning and fix "rld's" to be "world's"? It looks like I'm not able to change it myself.
     
  2. Cattledog

    Cattledog Active Member

    Joined:
    Feb 9, 2012
    Messages:
    1,708
    Location:
    San Antonio, TX
    I voted BMW sized because I think cars will just be a component of Tesla Incorporated (purposely not Tesla Motors, ala the Apple shift from Apple Computer to Apple). If 20 years ago you'd asked if Apple would be the biggest computer maker, you'd have the equivalent - computers are simply a component of everything they do today. Tesla will be the same in the future.
     
  3. JRod0802

    JRod0802 Member

    Joined:
    Dec 15, 2010
    Messages:
    661
    Location:
    Boston, MA
    Good point. I never thought of that. What about by market cap? Do you think the hypothetical "Tesla Incorporated" will be larger by market cap than existing automakers?
     
  4. ItsNotAboutTheMoney

    ItsNotAboutTheMoney Active Member

    Joined:
    Jul 12, 2012
    Messages:
    4,496
    Location:
    Maine
    Betteridge's Law applies: no.

    BMW-sized, because after Gen 3/Gen 4 they'll sell batteries to other manufacturers, who are experts in volume manufacturing.

    Tesla's focus is on developing the core technology.
     
  5. TD1

    TD1 Member

    Joined:
    Nov 28, 2012
    Messages:
    339
    Location:
    D
    I like the Apple comparison.
    Like Apple they won't build the most cellphones in the world, or build the most computers.
    But they could have the highest market cap.
    Like apple they understood that building a network around their products is the key to success in this new field Itunes/Appstore vs Superchargers/Swapstations, Bigscreen vs. BigBattery
    and a CEO with a high skills in engineering rather then Design/Marketing, although Elon is good at marketing too.

    Tesla is about electric propulsion.
    So I can imagine Tesla will step into the field of Electric Supersonic Jets in a decade or so.
    So taking additional market cap of Boeing and Airbus with higher margins if they will be the only one who figures out how to build a Electric Supersonic Vertical Take of and Landing Jet, (Elon said he has "an idea for that")
     
  6. AudubonB

    AudubonB Mild-mannered Moderator Lord Vetinari*

    Joined:
    Mar 24, 2013
    Messages:
    4,221
    Location:
    Denali Highway, Alaska
    I have an actuarial, genetic and lifestyle agglomeration of factors that give me an even chance of hanging around here another 35 years, so 2050 is the cutoff point for my prediction.

    At that time, I'll suggest that Tesla Motors Inc or its successor form will be the #2 or 3 largest automaker by number of vehicles sold (see! bringing trucks, vans and others into the equation), behind VW and perhaps Tata or a Chinese firm consolidated a la GM from a number of today's companies; and sharing that position with BMW, which I also see as a long-term survivor. I also will predict that Tesla will be the largest company by market capitalization in the non-Chinese world. Were China by that time to have entered the world of western mores, accounting practices and business/government structure - which I am not going to predict, but might occur - then Tesla has a good chance of being #1 overall.

    So I voted #2 - but for me that's the same as #3.
     
  7. Discoducky

    Discoducky Active Member

    Joined:
    Dec 25, 2011
    Messages:
    2,883
    Location:
    Seattle
    Due to auto manufacturing currently being innovation stagnant TM will keep marching forward until other companies start competing. Since it appears TM has about 5 to 7 years lead and a supercharging infrastructure they will just keep supplying more product to meet demand. Thus they should eclipse GM around 2022 so I voted largest.
     
  8. moollar

    moollar Member

    Joined:
    Jun 1, 2013
    Messages:
    172
    Location:
    Sydney, Australia
    I'm not a fan of the Apple comparison. Sure, Apple design some great products and so does Tesla. However, unlike Apple, Tesla wants to reduce the cost of electric transportation to make it more accessible for the masses (which is not very Apple-like). I'm not saying they'll always be cheaper than their competitors on a "like-for-like" basis, but they want to continue to make EVs more and more affordable. Elon said at the shareholders meeting last year that he would prefer to sacrifice margin to make Gen III more affordable than try to maintain higher margins. You would never hear something like that from an Apple executive.

    Another thing that frequently gets mentioned, which goes along with what I said above, is that the profits from the Model S are used to develop the next generation of more affordable vehicles. Then the profits from those vehicles will be used to make the next generation more affordable and so on. I'm sure, eventually, they'll diversify into other vehicles that aren't as affordable as the Gen III - like developing a new Roadster, for example. However, that still doesn't take away from the fact that Tesla wants to make affordable EVs in order to spur the competition on and, therefore, to accelerate the advent of electric propulsion as the default form of transportation. The profits from any more expensive vehicle will be ploughed into R&D for more affordable vehicles, just like the profits from the Model S are now.

    Also, Tesla (and SpaceX for that matter) tend to keep their core manufacturing capability in-house. They haven't outsourced most of their manufacturing like Apple. IMO, this is one Tesla's massive advantages over their competitors. It's also why they are so nimble and able to innovate through to production so quickly.

    One other major differentiator is that, even though the superchargers are proprietary technology, Elon keeps on saying that they do not want to make a closed system. There's no "walled garden" mentality like there is at Apple. They had to develop the supercharger technology, not because they want to lock everyone else out, but because the other DC fast charging technology sucks in comparison. Elon has said repeatedly that they are more than happy to have other companies use the technology, but anyone else who uses it has to contribute to the cost of the network and have the same "free for life" model that Tesla has.

    I could see this happening eventually. I think Elon wouldn't be able to rest if someone didn't do something like this eventually and he is well placed to make this happen, but only once Tesla is humming along nicely to the point where he does not have to be so involved in the day to day running of the company (i.e. when he can finally hand over the title of CEO to someone else).

    Given all that I've said in this post and the implication that Tesla have a huge technological lead over their competitors, I believe that they will be MASSIVELY bigger than Porsche and will likely surpass BMW one day. Definitely in terms of volume and highly likely in revenue as well.
     
  9. ggies07

    ggies07 Active Member

    Joined:
    Nov 8, 2012
    Messages:
    2,248
    Location:
    Ft. Worth, TX
    I'm not really sure. I could see them as the biggest in the future, but then Elon said recently in the interview over in Europe ( I can't remember the video, but he was in the car with another guy) that they would never have a car at the Nissan/Corolla level, so that makes me think no.
     
  10. moollar

    moollar Member

    Joined:
    Jun 1, 2013
    Messages:
    172
    Location:
    Sydney, Australia
    I saw that video too and just quickly re-watched it. I think he just didn't want Tesla to be compared to Nissan (which I think is understandable - you wouldn't want a Tesla vehicle being compared to the Nissan Leaf). However, he also mentioned in that same video that they would iterate to make the next generation (after Gen III) even more affordable than Gen III.
     
  11. ggies07

    ggies07 Active Member

    Joined:
    Nov 8, 2012
    Messages:
    2,248
    Location:
    Ft. Worth, TX
    ah, ok. I just thought he meant they will have cheaper cars in the future, but nothing that cheap. Signifying Tesla would stay in a medium to high market niche. But I get what you are saying.
     
  12. Ven Rala

    Ven Rala Member

    Joined:
    Nov 17, 2012
    Messages:
    378
    Location:
    Montgomery County, Md
    I agree with BMW size. There is a segment of the population that will not buy electric cars (at least for a generation). And I believe gas cars will be cheaper for at least another 1-2 decades.
    Tesla should continue to concentrate on being the best auto manufacturer rather than the largest
     
  13. jaanton

    jaanton Roadster NA #1026

    Joined:
    Jun 25, 2010
    Messages:
    312
    Location:
    Oakland, CA
    Where is my "it's the battery stupid!" button. Lots of auto manufacturers could switch to building EV's very fast if not for 1) battery manufacturing/design is very different, is the capacity constraint and will require new capital, 2) all the petrol heads within and without the industry, and 3) Companies will not write down 100 years of ICE R/D IP without a fight. Tesla is just taking advantage of the tech curve which exists now. I would dearly love to listen in on Tesla negotiating with the battery mfrgs.
    Makes me think of Dune, paraphrased.. "He who controls the spice/batteries, controls the universe."
     
  14. Trev Page

    Trev Page Member

    Joined:
    Sep 21, 2012
    Messages:
    576
    Location:
    Aurora, Ontario, Canada
    It's not just the battery that auto makers need. They need to radically rethink their car designs. You can't just take an ICE car and shove batteries wherever you can fit them, you'll never get any decent range like that. They need to do what Tesla did with the Model S and put a huge battery at the bottom of the car. That was a stroke of genius on their part. Doing that along with the drive train between the rear wheels is what sets Tesla apart from everyone else. When you look at that you say "why didn't anyone else think of that? It's so obvious!"
     
  15. moollar

    moollar Member

    Joined:
    Jun 1, 2013
    Messages:
    172
    Location:
    Sydney, Australia
    To be fair, GM had looked into the "skateboard" design with their Hy-wire concept a long time ago, but they were barking up the wrong tree thinking of fuel cells when they should have used the idea for a BEV (like Tesla).
     
  16. RobStark

    RobStark Active Member

    Joined:
    Jul 2, 2013
    Messages:
    2,911
    Location:
    Los Angeles
    GM, by faaaar, has the most patents that don't get put into production.

    They have skunk works that produce radically brilliant stuff.

    GM CEO pats them on the head and they continue making the same old stuff with marginal improvements.


    On Topic, Tesla has said they are a maker of "premium electric vehicles." Premium vehicles are not Versa Sentra Yaris Corolla priced.

    But I think no one will make one and Elon will feel compelled to make one 8-15 years from now to force everyone else to go electric.

    I hope Tesla makes a sub-brand for sub $30k cars. Like the Nikola 1 Series.

    I agree Tata Motors or some consolidated Chinese firm will sell the most units but Tesla will have the highest profits and highest market cap. 2035-2040 or so.
     
  17. Benz

    Benz Active Member

    Joined:
    Nov 15, 2012
    Messages:
    1,907
    Location:
    Netherlands
    Question: "Will Tesla eventually become the world's largest automaker (by number of cars sold)?"

    My answer: "Yes" (if you mean: "by number of cars sold in one year", but I assume that you meant that).

    The word "eventually" allows us to have an indefinite timeframe to ultimately reach to the moment upon when Tesla will have become the world's largest automaker (by number of cars sold in one year).

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    The next question could be when that will happen? And the answer should be that we can give an estimated guess.

    My conservative estimated guess would be:

    - Before 2020? No, absolutely not.
    - Between 2020 and 2030? Probebly not.
    - Between 2030 and 2040? Not very likely, but could maybe be possible. Although the chances are small (5%).
    - Between 2040 and 2050? Possibly, but not for sure. Although the chances are there (30%).
    - Between 2050 and 2060? Very likely that it will happen in this decade (65%).
    - Before 2060? Definitely Yes.

    -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    These are my delivery and revenue numbers for the current decade:

    2014: S + X = 40,000
    2015: S + X = 80,000
    2016: S + X = 160,000
    2017: S + X = 200,000 and E = 250,000
    2018: S + X = 240,000 and E = 500,000
    2019: S + X = 280,000 and E = 1,000,000

    Revenue (average sales price for S/X = 90,000 and E = 45,000):

    2014: 3.6B
    2015: 7.2B
    2016: 14.4B
    2017: 18B + 11.25B = 29.25B
    2018: 21.6B + 22.5B = 44.1B
    2019: 25.2B + 45B = 70.2B
     
  18. Jackl1956

    Jackl1956 Member

    Joined:
    May 11, 2013
    Messages:
    993
    Location:
    Los Angeles
    A solar electric future will provide an opportunity for the environment to heal. The continual acceleration of climate change and weather events will drive the adoption of renewable energy and electric vehicles. Tesla Motors will dominate the automotive industry, the tipping point draws nigh.

    On a side note, we had a scientist win the Nobel prize for solar power. A young man by the name of Albert Einstein.
     
  19. aronth5

    aronth5 Long Time Follower

    Joined:
    May 8, 2010
    Messages:
    1,434
    Location:
    Boston Suburb
    For 2017 thru 2019 I would expect half of these numbers. I see no reason why Tesla needs to grown so quickly. Better to produce the best quality cars and do it right.
     

Share This Page