Will the base Model 3 be front wheel drive and the high end version all wheel drive?

[JRP3]

Another video, notice the hose inlets on the LEAF motor at the 1 min mark in this video:

 

[Tasdevil]

Honda owners are pretty much by default all street racers,

lol

 

[peet365]

I think 25900 for 60 kWh version is too optimitic. If you think about 200USD/kWh at pack level it will be 12.000 USD just for battery. Take 20% gross margin from 35.000 and you are left with 16.000 USD for rest of the car. It is on limit to produce something comparable with BMW3, especially if you need to keep that huge display in the middle.
Maybe in 2023-5 with 100 USD/kWh on pack level, but certainly not in 2017.

 

[Model 3]

I think 25900 for 60 kWh version is too optimitic. If you think about 200USD/kWh at pack level it will be 12.000 USD just for battery. Take 20% gross margin from 35.000 and you are left with 16.000 USD for rest of the car. It is on limit to produce something comparable with BMW3, especially if you need to keep that huge display in the middle.
Maybe in 2023-5 with 100 USD/kWh on pack level, but certainly not in 2017.

They seams to be at 180USD/kWh now, and expect to reduce it by at least 30% = 126USD/kWh with the GF in 2017. Maybe 50% = 90USD/kWh in 2020/2022?

http://cleantechnica.com/2014/10/13/battery-costs-may-drop-100kwh/

Tesla currently pays Panasonic $180/kW for their batteries, although conventional systems are still selling for $500-700/kWh.

Quote from telsamotors forum:

Teo_ | 31. Oktober 2014

@CRASCH I agree. Prices will drop even more according to a Jerome Guillen interview 7 days ago:

http://www.manager-magazin.de/unternehmen/autoindustrie/tesla-chefentwic...

Here is a translation:
Guillen: Die 30 Prozent sind eine sehr konservative Schätzung. Da wollen wir deutlich mehr erreichen. Eine Halbierung der Kosten sollte möglich sein.

Guillen: The 30 percent is a very conservative estimate. We want to achieve there a lot more. Cutting the costs by half should be possible.

 

[glhs272]

I still think there is a good chance that the base Model 3 will feature RWD. Maybe not as good range as the AWD version with the same battery, but will still be 200+ miles range. Also, I wouldn't be surprised to see a whole new set of drive units engineered specifically for the Model 3 platform. I wouldn't assume they would just repackage the Model S/X platform.

Well according to Musk, the new smaller drive unit is like a generation 2 version. Improvement in steady state power output, efficiency, and cost over the original model S drive unit. Also, it in fact will be the pre-cursor to the model 3.

 

[peet365]

I am aware of what Tesla pays to Panasonic, but I was talking about whole battery pack costs - BMS, complex cooling system, fire protection and armour around cells and costs of putting it all together, you will get IMO to at least 2000USD. Bob Lutz said that all those costs in Volt are around 3500 USD -which is much simplier battery system than Tesla´s.
Plus I think it is more expensive to build rest of the car for 16.000 on BMW3 quality level.
I have high respect for Tesla technology, but I think big guys are still much better in scaling up production and bringing down the costs of parts and production process. Just look at BMW how easily, without any fuss, they doubled their prodcution of I3 within 6 months of introduction. And that is completly new concept for them.
Tesla has better car than others not because they are better in producing it, but because it has better technology. So to expect Tesla to be better in this game than big guys in timeframe of 2 years is IMO too optimistic.

 

[Model 3]

but I was talking about whole battery pack costs ...

Sorry, overlooked that But still thinks 200$/kWh is a bit high, but you might be right.