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Will the missing 10kwh to make XP100D be the new version of Powerwall?

Discussion in 'TSLA Investor Discussions' started by Ukland Wombat, Mar 30, 2016.

  1. Ukland Wombat

    Ukland Wombat Member

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    We know from the WK hack that XP100D is coming, but in what form and how?
    The discontinued Powerwall was the EPS 10kwh version...so, could the new version, expected soon I think, have all the inverter circuitry to feed power outlet sockets (like the wall sockets in your house) and at the same time be hard-wired to the charging circuits and drivetrain circuits of the car and sealed under the floor in that deep recess right at the back of the X?

    (Sorry if I've missed some company news that contradicts such a possibility. I am also wondering if the Model Xs delivered so far might have provisions like wiring harnesses and attachment lugs already in place for retro-fitting the missing 10kwh. Cell type is important, too...IIRC the EPS Powerwall had the same chemistry as the battery back. I'm uncertain on all these points. Perhaps someone will comment?)

    Ever the optimist, I'll go on as if this were plausible...

    Effectively, you would have a very useful EPS in the back of your X. All you may need is a very long extension lead to run it inside the house to reach appliances you want to plug in during a power outage. Also, you can run all manner of household appliances and power tools from your X when you are out and about.

    Then if the above is possible, it begs the question:

    Will the M3 Performance package be furnished with the same new Powerwall replacement device?

    Again, if the answer is yes, it provides a very neat fit with my wish list for TM:

    If TM wants to massively boost the number of early reservers (as I speculate it does), then all the company need do is have a cut off date for reserving the performance version, after which reservations may only be converted to lesser variants. (It will be years before they are all supplied anyway, by which time new models will be on offer).

    Fortuitously, the reservation deposit is completely independent of configuration, Performance or otherwise, so potential reservers all over the world will say to themselves..."Well, I don't want the performance version because of the expense, but hey that's a neat EPS feature, and it costs nothing more to get in line for, and of course I can always cancel and walk away from the whole thing, so I have nothing to lose and everything to gain by going online right away to reserve before the cut off."

    Consider also how TM ramps new models...always the highly optioned high ASP variants first. A cut-off date is a great marketing tool to force all the high ASP orders to the head of the line. The lesser optioned and base models with lower margin can follow later, when the factory is really humming along efficiently.

    It's neat. First one configuration of the production line then another, so a less complicated factory.

    This method of massively boosting the incentive to reserve, does not depend on discounting or 'bonus' or 'freebie' notions that I wrestled with clumsily in the "What if.." thread I started a couple of days ago. Moreover it lays to rest all the problems that thread threw up. Thanks to @Johan and @Fallenone who went there to comment. I was thereby stimulated to start again with the idea for this thread, further along the chaotic path from an absurd idea... thru ridiculous... thru nonsense... thru very unlikely... to plausible perhaps? ....

    That's it....a little food for thought, but only for tonight and tomorrow!

     
  2. MikeC

    MikeC Active Member

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    Sounds like you're talking about "vehicle to grid", which Tesla has shot down in the past. Especially with free Supercharging, I don't think it would make sense for them to do it.
     
  3. Ukland Wombat

    Ukland Wombat Member

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    Not vehicle to grid but vehicle to appliance.

    In an outage, unplug from the wall and plug the appliances you want to keep running into the "powerwall" in the X...
    or M3, if you read to the end.
     
  4. BriansTesla

    BriansTesla Old school meets new tech

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    Not the strangest idea I've heard, and it will absolutely happen some day but I think it may be a few years away.
     
  5. MikeC

    MikeC Active Member

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    That would be the same principle as V2G, just less efficient with a lot more extension cords. Wouldn't make sense.
     
  6. Ukland Wombat

    Ukland Wombat Member

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    Is that because there is a physical constraint which prevents it?

    Interested to know why you answered that way...

    Could the volume of the recess not hold a 10kwh battery pack?
     
  7. Ukland Wombat

    Ukland Wombat Member

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    I'm thinking an Emergency Power Supply...as you would otherwise use a back-up generator.
    When I've had a power outage I've never felt too worried about efficiency!

    I would just want fridge/ freezer/lights/chargers etc working.
     
  8. MikeC

    MikeC Active Member

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    Local supercharging is already a problem. You don't think people would fill up at a supercharger and then power their homes on Tesla's dime? How would that make any financial sense for Tesla?

    As far as efficiency, I meant why would you plug in each appliance into your car individually when you could plug the vehicle into your home power supply and just power everything through the usual outlets?
     
  9. Ukland Wombat

    Ukland Wombat Member

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    Efficiency of wiring you mean?...well, I'm thinking you run one heavy duty wire into your house which terminates into multiple sockets, which you then plug a few household appliances into...a bit like what happens on a building site.

    Edit]...local supercharging? not sure I follow...mostly an outage might last a few minutes or hours, but rarely days...may be it's very different where you live?
     
  10. Ukland Wombat

    Ukland Wombat Member

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    Thanks for your interest, MikeC,..... If you recall, the scrapped version of the Powerwall was not the 'daily cycler' it was the Emergency Power Supply version. The version which may form part of the M3 Performance package (a WAG!) is intended for exactly that same EPS purpose as the scrapped version.

    In an emergency, I'd be happy to have any power source, I wouldn't be fretting over running a lead from the car to the house then plugging the favoured appliances into a bank of sockets at the house end of that lead, if that solves my problem overnight, for instance.
     
  11. MikeC

    MikeC Active Member

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    I'll try to be more clear.

    1) What you are proposing IS "vehicle to grid", you are just suggesting that instead of plugging the vehicle into an outlet near the vehicle and powering the whole house and every appliance in it, that you plug each appliance individually directly into the vehicle. I will not use the word "efficient" here again to avoid confusion. Perhaps "easier" is the better word.

    2) V2G would be relatively easy for them to do, but Elon in a European tour a couple years ago said they have no plans to do this. One reason for that might be:

    3) Tesla gives electricity away for free at Superchargers. Do you think people would not start filling up their batteries at Superchargers and then run their homes off their car so they don't have to pay for electricity? Why would Tesla want to enable that?
     
  12. Ukland Wombat

    Ukland Wombat Member

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    Thanks for persisting MikeC

    Could we be talking past each other in a funny sort of way?

    The grid will never be connected electrically with the large extension lead coming out of the back of the X or I suggest Performance M3...not even through a breaker...absolutely no electrons between car and grid. i.e. No V2G whatsoever.

    Shuttling back and forth to superchargers is not what this is about...most people in an emergency would do without heavy loads like HVAC, tumble driers and so on...being happy to keep Fridge and freezer contents from spoiling...router working...laptops and phones charged...that sort of thing. With a frugal draw you may last a few hours maybe a whole night out of 10 Kwh...and of course the software may allow you to draw half of your main battery pack...then perhaps you are good for a day or more.

    Are you imagining something very different perhaps?

    Have I been confusing with my word choice in the OP?

    Edit] An appliance has one plug. Therefore it is either electrically connected to the grid or to the Powerwall equivalent device in the car....can't be both at once...physically impossible!
     
  13. MikeC

    MikeC Active Member

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    Okay, forget I used the word "grid". How about "vehicle to house" meaning that you can plug your car into the house and power the whole house (and all appliances therein) directly, without needing to run an extension cord to individual appliances. That's one point.

    The other point is that, if you give the car the ability to power your house, people will use the feature even when there's not an outage. They will simply run all their appliances off of the car using free electricity from Tesla and they will not have to pay a power bill at all.
     
  14. Ukland Wombat

    Ukland Wombat Member

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    Thanks ...now I see what you are suggesting...but what a hassle time wise to shuttle back and forth to superchargers for the pleasure of dumping a few free (not if you count your time!) kilowatt hours into serving what may be less than 10% of your house's peak load, and having wires running everywhere like on a building site while you do it. For 10 or 15c per kWh I doubt many would make that sort of act a feature of their 'free-loading lifestyle' when the grid power supply is working!

    Does that help?

    Also, I'm really hoping to get comments from someone with an X already, to learn the volume of the recess and its layout and whether they think this powerwall-equivalent device thing in X or M3 is even possible. There may be a problem I don't know about. With M3, if Tesla wanted it so, it will have been designed so.

    Model X however has this curious recess and is presently exactly 10kwh short of 100kwh which was exposed in a hack of a real X out in the world. There was a screenshot of the word XP100D...so it is already in the software of existing Xs. It is such a neat fit, coincidence?, that I wanted to understand if this was plausible.
     
  15. MikeC

    MikeC Active Member

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    Yes, it would be a hassle and yet people are doing this very thing with local Supercharging (which is what i was getting at before) - they will wait at a Supercharger for 45 minutes to get $8 worth of free electricity. Never underestimate people's willingness to exploit something that's free.

    I'm not sure why you would be putting a separate PowerWall into an X - I had thought you were talking about running the appliances off the main battery. I don't think having another battery onboard would make much sense because of things like weight distribution, safety in an accident, and carrying around the extra weight that you will only be using very rarely when there is an outage. It would make much more sense to just use the giant 90 kWh battery that already comes with the car, wouldn't it?
     
  16. Ukland Wombat

    Ukland Wombat Member

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    Good point...yes it would but XP90D cars are already out in the wild with presumably the potential to be XP100D. Tthere has been a lot of speculation in the short term thread about whether the battery pack is already 100kwh and will convert up from 90kwh with a software upgrade or if something needs to be added to the car. IIRC it might have been @austinEV (not sure) one or two days back.

    As you say maybe not ideal on weight distribution/safety but maybe ideal enough. Consider having a source of mains-type electricity wherever you travel...think of tradesmen too...and yet you still get the range and performance from the extra 10kwh.

    Anyway, I'm not advocating for this feature. I merely point out that TM might have had this in mind when designing M3. You would have all models with a standard battery pack...commonality is good for efficient production...and then the Performance Variant would have this powerwall-equivalent device, the exact same one as for the X for commonality again, somewhere on board...providing dual functions...range and performance and EPS.

    This is a big 'maybe' but if so, and if a cut-off date is applied to reserving the Performance variant it could easily incent 10x more reservations. Check out the OP again if this part of my idea interests you ....it could be very significant for its effect on total reservations and therefore SP in the month to come.
     

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