Will the Model 3 be Ludicrously Fast?

[tga]

I posted this in a CPO thread earlier but it applies here
1. a new Model S will always have the same or higher capacity battery as the top option than a model 3

Maybe, but without knowing Wh/mi, you can say which car would have longer range, which is all that matters. Ie, if the 3 is much more efficient, it could have more range on a smaller battery.

Think about that for your Ludicrous mode question. If a 2015 car has Ludicrous mode a 2018 Tesla Model 3 will have it. Whatever tech is common in 2016 will be on the Model 3 even.

I agree with your basic premise, but I think it applies more to things like autopilot (or autopilot v2). Ludicrous mode is less "technology" in my mind, then just a realization that the limits on amp draw could be relaxed (yes, the contactor is made of different material, but I don't consider this to be significant tech)

To get back to the OP's point, there will be a max performance version. Whether it's called insane, ludicrous, plaid, or whatever Spaceballs reference comes next is just an arbitrary label on the particular performance buckets.

 

[shrspeedblade]

Well, it will me for a smaller vehicle, so maybe, "Hyper-active!"

Or even better, "Snoddy, BEAM ME!"

 

[dhanson865]

Maybe, but without knowing Wh/mi, you can say which car would have longer range, which is all that matters. Ie, if the 3 is much more efficient, it could have more range on a smaller battery.

The assumption is that the car gets whatever wh/mi efficiency gain to exactly offset the smaller battery capacity. It may be more or less but for now when doing napkin math that's close enough. Things will change later with more data.

 

[gregincal]

I disagree. Tesla and Musk have stated time and again that the Model 3 is the the car for the masses with a price of $35,000. It would completely destroy their reputation if they don't make a car for the masses with a price of $35,000.

No, they have never ever said it would be a car for the masses. They have said it will be a mass market car, which is totally different.

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hmmm but in the case of X, people already pre-orered with reserv #. and Tesla doesnt know whos gonna order what options.

If Tesla puts lower priced cars at the back of the production line, then whats the point of pre-ordering? Isn't the point of pre-order getting your car sooner than other people?

Tesla may actually do what you are saying, but I don't know how people will react to that..

It's exactly what they did with the Model S. Preordering means you get your car before other people with the same configuration that you choose.

 

[Kevin Harney]

To answer the OPs question. Yes the Model 3 will be Ludicriously fast. (I predict the PXXD version will hit 0-60 in 2.4 seconds) For under $50K ? No, I seriously doubt that.

 

[MichFin]

The car will be competitive with the BMW 3 series according to Musk.

320i 0-60 in 7.1 seconds MSRP $33k
328i 0-60 in 5.8 seconds MSRP $38k
340i 0-60 in 4.6 seconds MSRP $47k
340i with many options like driver assistance, luxury package and tech package can easily be well over $55k

So my guess is that the Model 3 will beat all those at those price points.

 

[Kevin Harney]

The car will be competitive with the BMW 3 series according to Musk.

320i 0-60 in 7.1 seconds MSRP $33k
328i 0-60 in 5.8 seconds MSRP $38k
340i 0-60 in 4.6 seconds MSRP $47k
340i with many options like driver assistance, luxury package and tech package can easily be well over $55k

So my guess is that the Model 3 will beat all those at those price points.

And I believe that the base Model 3 will be about 3.9 0-60 to compete with the BMW M3.

 

[Yggdrasill]

And I believe that the base Model 3 will be about 3.9 0-60 to compete with the BMW M3.

Nah. It needs AWD to do 3.9. Assuming AWD is a 4k USD option, you'd need a 39k USD Model 3 to be competitive with the M3 in acceleration. And to beat the M3, you'd probably need the upgraded battery and the performance version, so maybe 55k USD.

 

[Kevin Harney]

Nah. It needs AWD to do 3.9. Assuming AWD is a 4k USD option, you'd need a 39k USD Model 3 to be competitive with the M3 in acceleration. And to beat the M3, you'd probably need the upgraded battery and the performance version, so maybe 55k USD.

Why would it need AWD ? the BMW M3 does it without AWD. 3.9 is not that big of a deal for traction. Beyond that for Insane and Ludicrious I agree AWD probably necessary. You might be right on the larger battery but better chemistry might change that too. But I think a Base Model 3 with the upgraded battery will be less than $55K - more like $45K.

 

[Yggdrasill]

Why would it need AWD ? the BMW M3 does it without AWD. 3.9 is not that big of a deal for traction. Beyond that for Insane and Ludicrious I agree AWD probably necessary. You might be right on the larger battery but better chemistry might change that too. But I think a Base Model 3 with the upgraded battery will be less than $55K - more like $45K.

The M3 does it with 431 hp on the rear wheels. The Model 3 is unlikely to have more than 250 hp on the rear wheels in the base configuration, maybe only 200 hp. Adding the front motor bumps this up to maybe 450 hp, though limited by the battery and electronics.

And I assumed the 55k included both the upgraded battery at say 8k USD and the performance edition at say 8k USD. Here, I'm assuming you get an upgraded rear motor, inconel fuses and everything else you need to do 0-60 mph in 2.X seconds.

 

[Ryan H]

I, for one, wouldn't react very well if any tax credit goes up in smoke because I got put to the back of the bus because I didn't want (and probably couldn't afford) a fully maxed-out car. I would understand some shifting away from the reservation numbers for things like batching winter-package cars together, etc., but that would be about it.

It worries me when I see people talk about the Model 3 in relation to the tax credit. I don't think people realize it's a credit off their federal tax liability. The catch is a person's tax liability cannot be less than zero. I wonder how many people who can't afford a higher end Model 3 would have income high enough to have a $7500 tax liability.

Full disclosure: I've already stated on this forum that I am one of the people who have less than a $7500 federal tax liability.

 

[MichFin]

"And I believe that the base Model 3 will be about 3.9 0-60 to compete with the BMW M3."

Not a chance.... The Model S 85D is 4.2 the 70D 5.2

So my guess is that the base Model 3 will come in somewhere around 5-6 seconds which will compare favorably with the 328i and upgrades from there will take you under 5 seconds beating the high end 340i. Keep in mind every bit of performance takes away from range and increases cost which are the two main targets that Tesla has highlighted.

$35k entry point
200+ mile range

 

[dhanson865]

It worries me when I see people talk about the Model 3 in relation to the tax credit. I don't think people realize it's a credit off their federal tax liability. The catch is a person's tax liability cannot be less than zero. I wonder how many people who can't afford a higher end Model 3 would have income high enough to have a $7500 tax liability.

Full disclosure: I've already stated on this forum that I am one of the people who have less than a $7500 federal tax liability.

Not living on either coast aka in a flyover state I don't make enough for the $7500 tax liability either.

2018 is a ways away. I'm not sure if I will by then or not.

Either way tax or not I keep seeing people talk about the Model 3 as though it will have 2015 tech in it. People keep talking about a 2015 Model S specs vs a 2018 Model 3 specs. A 2018 Model S will blow the doors off of a 2015 Model S and the model 3 will be less than some future Model S not less than the current Model S.

 

[Yggdrasill]

"And I believe that the base Model 3 will be about 3.9 0-60 to compete with the BMW M3."

Not a chance.... The Model S 85D is 4.2 the 70D 5.2

So my guess is that the base Model 3 will come in somewhere around 5-6 seconds which will compare favorably with the 328i and upgrades from there will take you under 5 seconds beating the high end 340i. Keep in mind every bit of performance takes away from range and increases cost which are the two main targets that Tesla has highlighted.

$35k entry point
200+ mile range

One of the main goals for Tesla is also profitability. Without offering high-priced performance options, Tesla is extremely unlikely to be able to make money on the Model 3. And 2.X second 0-60 times is a great way to sell the performance options. Those who need max range will configure for max range. Those who need a cheap as possible Model 3 will configure a cheap as possible Model 3.

 

[MichFin]

If you're buying a $40k car you pretty much have over $7500 unless you're retired or have some special circumstances. If you don't you can always lease the car and it gets rolled into the price of the lease.

Furthermore the Model 3 will NOT have the $7500 tax credit for long because it's only for the first 200,000 vehicles per manufacturer. Tesla is already over 50,000 sold and will likely Sell 50,000 next year in the US so 2017 they will only have it for the beginning of the year before they run out.

 

[Cobbler]

"
So my guess is that the base Model 3 will come in somewhere around 5-6 seconds which will compare favorably with the 328i and upgrades from there will take you under 5 seconds beating the high end 340i. Keep in mind every bit of performance takes away from range and increases cost which are the two main targets that Tesla has highlighted.
...

I think your expectations are realistic. Similar performance as a BMW 320i, 200mile range and with the price setting of 35K -40K $.
The high-selling points will be reliability (let's hope all the drive unit related problems will permanently fixed), trunk/frunk/space available in the car, low-cost maintenance, zero-emission, continues software-updates...
If you want more upgrades, there will be performance/styling/tech/.... packages at $$$

 

[MichFin]

Exactly, you can expect the car to sell between $35k and $55k depending on which performance levels and options you pick. Just like the BMW 3 series.

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I agree that there will be performance packages in the car but 2.x second 0-60 is something that will be very difficult to do under $80k. I'm not so sure there will be a market for the Model 3 at $80k but for a few customers.

 

[Yggdrasill]

I agree that there will be performance packages in the car but 2.x second 0-60 is something that will be very difficult to do under $80k. I'm not so sure there will be a market for the Model 3 at $80k but for a few customers.

I think it's possible for much less.

The relevant Model S performance options are:

AWD: $5,000
Battery upgrade: $10,000
Performance: $20,000
Ludicrous: $10,000

Adding those options to the $35,000 base Model 3 means the price would be $80,000, but this is wholly unrealistic. For one thing, Tesla probably has somewhere around a 90% profit margin on the Ludicrous option, and all the other options would definitely be cheaper on a smaller car built in higher volume.

Even pessimistically the price shouldn't be more than:

Base Model 3: $35,000
AWD: $4,000
Battery upgrade: $8,000
Performance: $10,000
Ludicrous: $5,000

Total: $62,000

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And just to mention it, the BMW M3 starting MSRP is $63,200 and it does 0-60 in 3.8 seconds, so a 2.7 second 0-60 time in a $62,000 Model 3 would be easy to sell.

 

[Lonnie123]

Furthermore the Model 3 will NOT have the $7500 tax credit for long because it's only for the first 200,000 vehicles per manufacturer. Tesla is already over 50,000 sold and will likely Sell 50,000 next year in the US so 2017 they will only have it for the beginning of the year before they run out.

Not quite, after the 200,000th car the FULL CREDIT is available until the end of the quarter after the quarter the car sells in. Then there is 6 months of 50% of the credit, then 6 months of 25% credit.

Example:

200,000th car sells on Feb 14th 2018. Since this is in the First Quarter of the year, it breaks down like this:

The full discount is available until May 31'st (the quarter after the quarter the car is sold in)

50% credit until Dec 31'st

25% credit until May 31'st 2019

In theory if the car sells early on in a quarter you could get nearly 6 months of full credit after that, unlimited amount of cars in that time period.

 

[physicsfita]

The IRS IRC-30D tax credit aka $7500 federal tax credit has a phase out of 1 year after 200,000 qualified vehicles are produced. It just doesn't go poof it slowly goes from 100% credit, an extra quarter at 100% credit ($7500) then the next 2 calendar quarters at 50% ($3750) and another 2 calendar quarters at 25% ($1875) of the credit. The phase begins in the second calendar quarter following the calendar quarter in which Tesla hits the 200,000 vehicle milestone.

https://www.irs.gov/Businesses/Plug-In-Electric-Vehicle-Credit-IRC-30-and-IRC-30D

Just to be clear, I would be miffed if even half the credit goes poof, since some seem to be suggesting that waits of over a year for less-optioned vehicles would be appropriate.

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It worries me when I see people talk about the Model 3 in relation to the tax credit. I don't think people realize it's a credit off their federal tax liability. The catch is a person's tax liability cannot be less than zero. I wonder how many people who can't afford a higher end Model 3 would have income high enough to have a $7500 tax liability.

Full disclosure: I've already stated on this forum that I am one of the people who have less than a $7500 federal tax liability.

I make basically just barely enough for the credit to come in to play. It would be a major factor is being able to afford a Model 3 because it would bring the total price to about the same as a Prius, which is affordable for me.

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If you're buying a $40k car you pretty much have over $7500 unless you're retired or have some special circumstances. If you don't you can always lease the car and it gets rolled into the price of the lease.

Furthermore the Model 3 will NOT have the $7500 tax credit for long because it's only for the first 200,000 vehicles per manufacturer. Tesla is already over 50,000 sold and will likely Sell 50,000 next year in the US so 2017 they will only have it for the beginning of the year before they run out.

... which is why I'll be getting carpal tunnel from hitting command-r on the browser on unveiling day. :tongue: