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Discussion in 'Model 3' started by Nuclear Fusion, Jul 16, 2017.
Maybe someone can do calculations on it.
I'm sure Tesla would offer bulk buy discounts
In Europe at least, cars popular as taxis have class leading luggage space in the boot but I know in some places they have trailers. So its difficult to tell at this point but hey EM says we will all be running taxi companies in a few years time.
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I'm sure they will not.
Tesla is planning to run its own autonomous taxi service, called "Tesla Network". Owners of Telsas can choose to partake. Their cars would be available for ride sharing when not needed by the owner. Tesla views this as a way to help people afford their cars in the future.
However, the autonomous tech required for the "Tesla Network" will be many years out even after all current reservations are fulfilled, and so it will not be in operation in the near term.
Purpose built taxis are boxy. The model 3, with a substantial rear seat focus, seems more targeted at Chinese personal ownership/car service rather than taxi.
The Model 3 is cheap to buy, to drive every day, and to maintain, has large rear seat and lots of luggage space. Can put hundreds of thousands of miles without needing to replace the motor. May not even need to recharge more than once per day. Will make a great taxi and great beater car. At the price point, we'd probably see mods to rip out the rear seats to store more for other service-vehicle use, unless the Y is more suitable.
Elon believes that they'll be able to demonstrate Level-5 autonomy by having a Telsa vehicle drive itself coast-to-coast by the end of this year. Every Tesla car sold has all of the hardware necessary - hardware that is *not* used for current autopilot. The tech is closer than you think.
Such a stunt is almost meaningless, as the current challenge in fully autonomous driving is NOT one of long-distance travel. Rather, the AI needs to inevitably negotiate things like road construction, police, emergency workers (detours, workers doing hand signals, etc), malfunctioning traffic lights, obscured markings and path, crowds flooding streets from events, appropriate parking, etc.
Just the other day I was stopped at the end of an off-ramp and had to move up well into a somewhat dangerous, still red-lighted intersection in order for an ambulance to get by from behind me. After the ambulance passed, you need to follow it through that red light or be stuck blocking traffic. That's one of hundreds of things which must be figured out still. ..And the Tesla is not equipped with a microphone so if the ambulance was perhaps just 2 cars behind, the camera probably wouldn't have even noticed it.
A human driver will be assertive enough to nudge the vehicle forward so that people directly in front will move out of the way, yet carefully enough so as not to hit anyone. An autonomous system may decide it's unsafe to move with all those people surrounding the car and just sit there waiting for the crowd to dissipate before advancing.
Yep, that's the "language" that human drivers use to get noticed. Same thing with merging into an adjacent lane with traffic. But what if the intersection has a light out and the cop directing traffic is motioning or telling you to take so-and-so avenue as a detour? People would be P.O.'d at the "fully autonomous" car and cop would probably have to get it towed.
I agree. I expect Waymo car to allow a remote human driver (in essentially a call center) to join and operate the vehicle under exceptional conditions.
I'm assuming the trunk is not big enough for a full taxi. But perhaps in the RWD version the frunk will be meaningfully large.
Problem is that the conventional wireless cell data comm network can't be relied upon for such purposes for a number of reasons, including its high latency. The network was never intended to be used in that manner. Very hokey.
You mean like this?
You're confusing driving a car at speed with a human joining a car to figure out what is going on and what to do with the passengers. A redundant 4G connection is just fine.
Meaningless? Even if they don't handle those exceptional conditions, it would still be the first production car with level-3 autonomy. I would be very happy with a car that could handle most of the mundane driving, and alert me to take over when it encounters a situation that it can't handle.
But also, don't think for one second that the engineers working on autonomy aren't thinking about these exact scenarios that you spent two seconds to enumerate. Tesla hasn't really advertised their progress, but Google has to some degree.
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That is years away thanks firstly to the complexity of nuanced level 4 autonomy & secondly governments enacting laws to accommodate.
Taxis will be required for several years yet
I agree level 3 would be useful and desirable. However, you've just switched the context. Your statement was:
"Elon believes that they'll be able to demonstrate Level-5 autonomy by having a Telsa vehicle drive itself coast-to-coast by the end of this year." Which indeed is almost meaningless for demonstration of level 5! Again, it's not a question of distance as 99% will be open highway.
Sorry, when you replied that the coast-to-coast trip was meaningless, I guess I misunderstood.
Today's Tesla cars already have all of the hardware required to support L5 autonomy. There's a lot of work to be done on the software side to get there, but as soon as that happens, all existing Teslas (with the current hardware) will suddenly have the ability to be autonomous.
Either way, I don't see Tesla being interested in offering fleet sale discounts until the demand for the vehicle dies down. And I don't see that happening for a couple of years. They're going to be able to sell every one they make at MSRP for a while, even after U.S. federal tax credits disappear.