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Blog Will We Own Cars in Fifteen Years and How will Enthusiasts Survive This?

Discussion in 'Autonomous Vehicles' started by LotusFan, Jun 14, 2017.

  1. LotusFan

    LotusFan Member

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    [​IMG]

    My name is Eric Bergerson and I’m an industrial designer with an additional background in physics. I work as a consultant in the autonomous vehicle industry and I’m very interested in what’s going to happen when Uber, Lyft and the dozens of competitors to those companies are about to have in America and abroad start using cost effective autonomous vehicles.

    Widespread availability of autonomous vehicles will cause the greatest social and economic transformation the human race has experienced since the advent of the internet, and possibly since the Industrial Revolution. It will save over thirty thousand American lives and over two million injuries per year, give Americans seventy-five billion hours of their time back, save consumers almost three trillion dollars of disposable income, solve a significant portion of our environmental crisis, electrify America’s automobile fleet, revolutionize urban planning, change the very physical infrastructure of our cities and quite possibly end terrorism. In addition to all these grand achievements, autonomous vehicle technology will also do little things for us like...
    READ ARTICLE
     
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  2. Olle

    Olle Member

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    Nice article. In addition, I wonder what we will do with all our garage spaces that will no longer be filled with cars that are parked 23 hours /day
     
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  3. Merrill

    Merrill Active Member

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    This is all very interesting but for me as long as I can get a drivers license I will be driving a car, I have been into cars going back to my childhood. Cannot imagine not driving one myself, how boring.
     
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  4. slipnslider

    slipnslider Member

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    To me, my car is an extenstion of my house - an environment personal to me that I control.

    I don't rent my house on airbnb because I don't want someone ****ing in my bed, and I wont rent my car because I dont want someone farting on my seats and wiping boogers on the carpet.
     
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  5. Uncle Paul

    Uncle Paul Member

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    It may be similar to how we currently use air transportation. Most all air transportation is done in commercial airlines, that transport millions of air passengers to their destinations. They all use computer auto pilots to do a majority of the navigation, including take off and landings. Pilots mainly taxi their planes to and from the terminals. (Sorry to pilots if I have gotten this wrong)

    Only a very few flyers own and pilot their own planes. They are the enthusiasts and professionals that need to own their individual planes (or time share) for their enjoyment and specialized needs.

    I imaging that in the future, over 90% of all travel needs will be handled in this manner.

    The savings on insurance, storage, maintenance, purchase, depreciation etc will make using automated vehicle transport the mode of choice.
     
  6. Uncle Paul

    Uncle Paul Member

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    Most of the modern generation will gladly give up self driving if they have access to their cell phones during the trip.

    Self driving and texting do not go well together.
     
  7. mkspeedr

    mkspeedr Member

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    LOL - my neighbors only have one car in their car (2 or 3 car garages) - the rest is filled with junk.

    Hopefully I will stop riding before they take away my license (not related to speeding tickets).
     
  8. AceSkywalker

    AceSkywalker Member

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    No thanks. I'll keep my personal, private car, regardless of how its controlled, or how its powered. I'm not looking forward to getting into an autonomous on-demand ride when the previous rider's lunch isn't agreeing with them.

    And what about the millions of people that partake in tailgates or camping? TAAS vehicles and those activities do not mesh together. Just went to Yosemite - I don't see a way we could have done the trip if our rides would ride into the sunset after we got to our destination.
     
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  9. AcidTest

    AcidTest Member

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    The part I never see addressed in articles like this is the fact that the 4% usage rate (or whatever it is) pretty much occurs at the same time of the day for most people. Doesn't matter if my car is available for 14 out of 16 hours during the day if I need it twice during rush hour, and so does everyone else. This only helps for off-rush hour use cases.
     
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  10. ItsNotAboutTheMoney

    ItsNotAboutTheMoney Well-Known Member

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    Now:


    StepTaxiRental
    1car comes to youpick up car at rental location
    2somebody else drivesyou drive
    3car stopscar stops
    4get out of car/others get into carget out of car/others get into car
    5if another leg of journey go to Step 2if another leg of journey go to Step 2
    6car leavesreturn car to rental location
    With autonomy:


    StepTaxiRental
    1car comes to youcar comes to you
    2car drives itselfcar drives itself
    3car stopscar stops
    4get out of car/others get into carget out of car/others get into car
    5if another leg of journey go to Step 2if another leg of journey go to Step 2
    6car leavescar leaves
    You'll be able to rent. TAAS is just a way of paying based on time and miles.
     
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  11. AcidTest

    AcidTest Member

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    Ha, so that part I personally have figured out if it ever comes about. I'd turn mine into a dedicated home theater room and give my lovely wife our living room back. (Currently has a pole mounted projector, motorized screen and various gear including 2 fairly large Hsu Research subwoofers she'd love to boot out.)

    I don't expect that to happen as I don't think either of us are likely to adapt our mindset to a TAAS lifestyle, but thanks for pointing out one upside.
     
  12. ecarfan

    ecarfan Well-Known Member

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    Regarding your taxi analysis, I think you left out a key factor: autonomous taxis with no drivers will be significantly cheaper than today's taxis.
     
  13. Ardie

    Ardie Member

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    I get this sneaking suspicion that while operating a vehicle *without* a driver will probably cost less than operating one *with* a driver, the actual cost to the paying passenger will *not* reap all of those savings. The owner/operator will probably keep as much of that for himself as possible. After the insurance company rate increases to cover the imagined increase in liability, and after the increase to cover the additional wear and tear that equipment gets by idiots who don't think anybody is watching.

    Ah, capitalism.

    -- Ardie
     
  14. slipnslider

    slipnslider Member

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    I think most of them would rather give up food and water than their phones.
     
  15. lunitiks

    lunitiks Memba

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    Fine article :)
     
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  16. WannabeOwner

    WannabeOwner Active Member

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    Why? Autonomous will be safer than human driver - otherwise it ain't going to gain "approval", surely?

    Driver wages are significant cost of a taxi ride. If many/some owners of Autonomous cars lease them out as Taxis that increases the available taxi fleet, and drives the ride-price down.

    Maybe Buyers who traditionally buy New Car will retain their old car, and run it as a "taxi" for the income, rather than selling second hand - along with renting out their 2nd home, yacht, ... etc!
     
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  17. malcolm

    malcolm Active Member

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    Enthusiast: "You may have my car seat - when you prise it from my cold, clenched buttocks"
     
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  18. LotusFan

    LotusFan Member

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    I recommend getting into the home remodel business because all those garages are going to turn into home theaters and gyms!
     
  19. LotusFan

    LotusFan Member

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    You're right, the usage is massively skewed toward fixed times. The airline industry has the exact same problem with holiday travel. Everyone wants to travel at Thanksgiving and Christmas but the supply of jumbo jets is fixed in the short term. That's why Christmas and Thanksgiving travel is more expensive than random other times of the year. With car travel it's the same phenomenon within any given day. Everyone wants a ride during morning and afternoon rush hour and there's less demand during the rest of the day. It's a little easier for automotive fleet providers in The Mobility Cloud (The Mobility Cloud | Bergerson Design) than it is for airlines, though, because the vehicles need downtime to recharge (which will happen outside of peak demand time) but the fundamental problem will still exist. Building enough capacity to handle rush hour means extra unused capacity during the rest of the day, but of course that's the same situation we're in right now. The bottom line is that's it's impossible to have a perfectly efficient system if there's cyclical demand, which there always will be, but sharing the vehicles throughout the day still provides such a massive improvement over our current model that the benefits will be enormous from an energy and purchasing standpoint.
     
  20. LotusFan

    LotusFan Member

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    You're absolutely right that The Mobility Cloud (The Mobility Cloud | Bergerson Design) isn't a solution to every situation, but if you've ever ridden in a taxi or Uber/Lyft/etc at any point in your life then you are a candidate to use The Mobility Cloud when it arrives. You're right that if you want to go car camping somewhere then that vehicle will likely need to stay with you, but once taking on demand transportation is a quarter or a tenth the price of owning a car, you'll find that you'll be using shared transportation to get to work every day as well, not just on Saturday night before and after the opera.

    Good example with the tailgating. I'm sorry to report that ultimately they will probably experience the same fate that barn dances experienced. For a period in history people loved doing that as well.
     

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