Will we see a "Tesla killer"?

[dalec]

I've had a number of discussions since I told friends I was buying a Tesla about the viability of the company. For some reason that seems to be a big deal for people. I wrote the following to save me from repeating myself each time it comes up.

Will we see a Tesla killer? — Dale Cohen

 

[memetz]

I've had a number of discussions since I told friends I was buying a Tesla about the viability of the company. For some reason that seems to be a big deal for people. I wrote the following to save me from repeating myself each time it comes up.

Will we see a Tesla killer? — Dale Cohen

nice read, I mostly agree with all of that

 

[RobDickinson]

Can Elon Musk run a business?

He has grown the company from $1m to tens of billions, every quarter is a record quarter, and the longest lasting car manufacturer CEO by some margin.

Compare him to the VAG guy who's in jail or the Merc guy who quit because its all too hard, or the BMW guy who basically got fired for screwing up over the last 5-6 years...

 

[Gnat666]

Quite good article Dale, well done.

I would only add
- Data; It seems impossible now to beat Tesla at the data harvesting & the corresponding AI play, his head start is supreme
- RoboTaxi; I'm rolling the dice that my tired & old Model 3 (maybe in 5-10 years) will be the BEST car investment I ever made

 

[Nuclear Fusion]

I've had a number of discussions since I told friends I was buying a Tesla about the viability of the company. For some reason that seems to be a big deal for people. I wrote the following to save me from repeating myself each time it comes up.

Will we see a Tesla killer? — Dale Cohen

It’s a reflection on the lack of critical thinking skills, often steered by a neurological tendency to choose the mentally lazy option.
It’s parallel is denial of anthropogenic global warming science - often people don’t accept it because ultimately it exposes their own educational illiteracy. There’s even psychological & sociological research on this stuff - it doesn’t paint a certain, you know who, end of the political voting spectrum in a great light.

 

[Nuclear Fusion]

Anyway, there will be no Tesla killer in the foreseeable future because Tesla are ahead, engineering & research wise, in so many areas.
And no one else is ‘all in’ (VAG is the closest) & hence the competitors are ‘resource divided’ & their company vision/mission is blurred spinning too many plates

 

[paulp]

I've had a number of discussions since I told friends I was buying a Tesla about the viability of the company. For some reason that seems to be a big deal for people. I wrote the following to save me from repeating myself each time it comes up.

Will we see a Tesla killer? — Dale Cohen

Nice read Dale. Tesla has been ‘on the edge of collapse from lack of money or competitors’ for the 7 years I’ve been following them and 4 years I’ve owned. Since my first purchase tesla have added model x, model 3, and shown prototypes of roadster, Y, and a truck. They’ve also created a massive home battery business and added two more massive factories. Hardly the actions of a collapsing company.
Plenty of business and vested interests want tesla gone, and they will continue to publish rubbish about tesla to try and achieve their aim.

 

[raynewman]

Ah - but he was a bank CEO and that worked til short sighted investors moved him along.

 

[ChrsiH314]

Been an enthusiast and owner since 2016. My reading, and reading between the lines suggests, if anything's going to be a Tesla killer (and hope there isn't one) it would be when the Model 3 has been going a few years and there are lots and lots of them, and as inevitably happens in that case, there are a lot of people needing service and replacement parts, and the situation is like it is today where we read about people waiting very long times for parts. If VW can make a halfway decent car and infrastructure *and* provide a decent stream of parts and service, that could be a disruption of the Tesla dream.

This is the only thing I'm not sure about in Elon's business plan. It's easy to dismiss car dealers as mindless parasites who make a living out of other people's work, but I think it's more a symbiotic relationship these days. They know where their bread and butter comes from, they talk your product up, sell it, and more importantly service and repair it. That's infrastructure you don't have to pay for and build, work you don't have to coordinate. Larger dealers could probably be talked into having charging stations too.

 

[MC3OZ]

This is the only thing I'm not sure about in Elon's business plan. It's easy to dismiss car dealers as mindless parasites who make a living out of other people's work, but I think it's more a symbiotic relationship these days. They know where their bread and butter comes from, they talk your product up, sell it, and more importantly service and repair it. That's infrastructure you don't have to pay for and build, work you don't have to coordinate. Larger dealers could probably be talked into having charging stations too.

The main problem with dealers is they make a substantial portion of their money from servicing and that subsidises the rest of the operation.
With EVs in the long run that money isn't there and somehow the overhead of having dealers has to be added to the purchase price..

If you have taken delivery of a Tesla, you know they are delivering 50 cars per day out of one location, that is a very efficient model in terms of staff, and real estate. The only way I can see dealers matching this is to consolidate to a similar scale...

A short term problem is dealers prefer to sell ICE are more used to selling ICE and mostly disinterested or poor at selling EVs..

For Tesla service is an issue, but mobile service is again a very efficient solution when combined with fewer larger service centres... many of those service centres also doing deliveries.

When EVs become the main game sooner or later car companies and dealers will work out a model that works, Tesla can also elect to franchise this area of the business at anytime.. When the fleet is larger and there is more money to be made from service is a better time..
But Tesla would need to pay the franchise operator for warranty repairs and deliveries... and the franchise operator largely has the same overheads... and the same income from service...

The main advantage car companies have is car dealers pay for cars when they are delivered to the lot, so car makers get their money before the car is sold,,, again if that is done for EVs it adds a cost somewhere... typically this is financed, often by the car maker...

 

[aegidius]

So, the rest of big auto sleeps on for, what, 7-8 years while Tesla builds experience and advantage? In no industry at all can you get away with that kind of complacency. When they try they can do quite well, Porsche makes a pretty decent top-end EV, but it falls short of the Model S Performance in most performance metrics and also in range/efficiency.

I don't think we will ever see a Tesla killer. It's Tesla who will be doing the killing. What we will see is several more Kodaks and Nokias.

 

[Hairyman]

I confess I’m not worried about a Tesla killer. I’m more interested in seeing a wider and more diverse EV market. As now, each maker will try to fill a spot in the market and exploit that fraction of total market share. Tesla is clearly setting a benchmark, but there are others out there aiming at different segments and I hope they grow strongly. It seemed to me that this was the idea when Tesla made a bunch of patents freely available.

 

[ICUDoc]

We will DEFINITELY see a Tesla-killer. Such is the nature of people and business.
It's just a matter of time. The question is of course, when.
Lots of good point made above- my own feeling is that VW will make a big splash with their vehicles within 3 years in Australia.
Then there will be a scrap between them and Tesla for the market that overlaps between them. A large segment will belong to VW (smaller cheaper slower less range) and another to Tesla. The overlapping segments will be the battleground.

 

[aegidius]

A large segment will belong to VW (smaller cheaper slower less range) and another to Tesla. The overlapping segments will be the battleground.

Bring it. Competition definitely improves the breed. Of course more competitors in the space will drive prices down and stimulate innovation. (I'm just glad Tesla didn't start with SUV's, I can't stand the things, but I do get that many people want them...)