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I consider this an extremely unlikely possibility. I personally wouldn't mind any extra delay in taking possession of my car, but I would be bothered by Tesla's hypothetical inability to execute. This is hypothetical right? Hello? OP?
Philip
I'm fine with waiting as long as it takes and am in no rush to get my Model X. The BMW i3 I leased quenches my immediate desire to drive an EV and fills the gap of the expiring lease vehicle the Model X was supposed to replace, while my old Murano handles situations when I need to carry more people or cargo. I will welcome the Model X as soon as it arrives to replace the Murano, but have no pressing need to replace it other than getting a second ICE out of the garage.
Johann Koeber
Active Member
MrBoylan
Member
I'm not expecting mine (4787) until March or April at the earliest. If I get it sooner, bonus! I'm also not expecting a folding flat second row any time soon (if ever). I am taking a "what I've seen (at the reveal) is what I get" attitude.
-CB
dwebb66
Member
I would be disappointed, but not for the reason that you listed. Delays happen, how many car or software companies announce a new product a year in advance and a) Provide all of the details, b) keep the public informed of the status (let alone all it its employees) or c) manages to hit a target that far in advance.
Tesla delivered the Founders Vehicles. They have now asked all US Signature Series owners to Configure. Some Signature Reservation holders now have their VIN. Tesla has stated it is their intent to have other existing (not new) reservation holders to configure by the end of the 2015. That does not signal a six month delay. If there were a chance of six month delay, Tesla would (IMO) would not have taken these actions.
I'm with Johann on this one. As a reservation holder I can wait for them to have a good product. It also give me time to ponder whether I really, really should blow six figures on a car. Again.
I am not trying to be negative. Just not overly optimistic.
If I am asked to configure before the end of the year, and don't end up getting the car until July 2016 or later, I will be very disappointed and feel misled (I am Prod #16,448).
The main reason for the disappointment will be that I could have replaced my gas guzzling SUV with something much more efficient two years ago. I understand delays can happen and somethings are out of the manufacturer's control and we all want the vehicle to be great...but starting a couple months ago, I started to get a sense that Tesla knew there were some additional problems and delays which they are not telling the res holders.
It seems to me that the following is likely based on hearsay and circumstantial evidence (I have no direct knowledge that this is the case).
1) Some design changes have been made recently that still need to be worked out (eg. electric vs hydraulic door actuators)
2) Supplier issues will hinder production
3) Reaction to some of the design features and price point from some Sig res holders and many Prod res holders has given Tesla pause and they are considering pushing future versions (price point and seat options) to come out sooner requiring more design/tooling. This combined with a possibly terrible range as well as heat problems while towing will result in significant delays between Signature and Production deliveries.
In my non-optimistic mind, the following seems very possible.
100 or less sigs delivered in 2015
Sigs finish deliveries in Feb/Mar
Another pause (except perhaps for fully loaded models)
New price options as well as configurations and updates to problems with Sigs on the road
Slow ramp up of production changed configs
Productions res deliveries start in late may to qualify for "Early 2016" timeline
Res numbers over 10K in the fall/winter 2016
If this turns out to be the case and Tesla just does not want to let me know. I understand they need to do what they need to do, I may do the same thing in their position. But I need to do what I need to do also.
Just trying to figure out if they ask me to configure, will I believe their timeline, and will I be OK if it slips. And so trying to gauge if I am alone or others feel the same way.
-T
If I am asked to configure before the end of the year, and don't end up getting the car until July 2016 or later, I will be very disappointed and feel misled (I am Prod #16,448).
The main reason for the disappointment will be that I could have replaced my gas guzzling SUV with something much more efficient two years ago. I understand delays can happen and somethings are out of the manufacturer's control and we all want the vehicle to be great...but starting a couple months ago, I started to get a sense that Tesla knew there were some additional problems and delays which they are not telling the res holders.
It seems to me that the following is likely based on hearsay and circumstantial evidence (I have no direct knowledge that this is the case).
1) Some design changes have been made recently that still need to be worked out (eg. electric vs hydraulic door actuators)
2) Supplier issues will hinder production
3) Reaction to some of the design features and price point from some Sig res holders and many Prod res holders has given Tesla pause and they are considering pushing future versions (price point and seat options) to come out sooner requiring more design/tooling. This combined with a possibly terrible range as well as heat problems while towing will result in significant delays between Signature and Production deliveries.
In my non-optimistic mind, the following seems very possible.
100 or less sigs delivered in 2015
Sigs finish deliveries in Feb/Mar
Another pause (except perhaps for fully loaded models)
New price options as well as configurations and updates to problems with Sigs on the road
Slow ramp up of production changed configs
Productions res deliveries start in late may to qualify for "Early 2016" timeline
Res numbers over 10K in the fall/winter 2016
If this turns out to be the case and Tesla just does not want to let me know. I understand they need to do what they need to do, I may do the same thing in their position. But I need to do what I need to do also.
Just trying to figure out if they ask me to configure, will I believe their timeline, and will I be OK if it slips. And so trying to gauge if I am alone or others feel the same way.
-T
MrBoylan
Member
See that's where I think you're mistaken. I don't think Tesla is intentionally misleading anyone, by purposely withholding information about the X delivery timetable. I think they just *don't know* when production will ramp up and how quickly because some of the part supplies are still in question. Just as Tesla "promised" us cars by a certain time frame, so the suppliers have promised Tesla parts in the quantities that would be required in order to make these final delivery commitments happen. Maybe they're not committing to specific delivery dates because they've learned that the promises of certain suppliers are nothing but empty.
Last thing they (Tesla) want to do is go out on a limb based on supplier commitments because it's Tesla that will be held responsible for these commitments, no matter whose "fault" it was.
Personally, I'm bracing for lowered guidance for 2015 deliveries when they announce Q3 earnings (including a very small delivery estimate for the X). I think it will most likely hurt the stock. But I'm not selling a single share.
LONG live Tesla (and TSLA)!
CmdrThor
Active Member
Lowering 2015 guidance two quarters in a row would be pretty terrible. If they don't deliver 50,000 total vehicles in 2015, expect the stock to drop to $150 or so. I would agree it is just a "they don't know" situation, because if there was any thought that no more than 1,000 or fewer Model X would be delivered in 2015, you'd think the guidance would have been lowered to 45,000-50,000 vehicles.
Jdcleary
Member
I have number 13,7xx and don't expect delivery until August or September. How many do you expect they will deliver in the first six months?
The only reason I expect that is because that's what they told me. I totally agree with you on the timetable and I think Tesla does also, but this is a non-public revision. The thing is most res holders (like me before I did some research after the "launch") are expecting their cars in "early 2016" like they were told and I think many will be very disappointed. I stretched to hold off replacing a gas hog SUV and I am not sure I want to wait any longer.
-T
MrBoylan
Member
I don't think the drop will be that drastic. And hey, if it is... "buying opportunity!" Slipped deadlines and delivery numbers are almost par for the course with Tesla these days. They probably did not know about the specific Model X supply issues in July or August when they reviewed Q2 earnings and lowered the guidance. I think delivering 1,000 Model Xes in 2015 is optimistic, given that they've shipped 5 to customers now. And if they do deliver 1,000 of them, that would leave, what? 16,000 Model S cars to deliver in one quarter to meet the low end of the 50-55K goal? That's about a 60% YOY increase from Q4 2014. Certainly possible, but that would be quite a feat. I don't want to dwell on this (this is not the investors forum), but I personally would not be shocked by lower guidance in the Q3 call. I have faith that the X will be both awesome and popular, but when they will really crank up production is anyone's guess.
Nubo
Test Mule
To be honest I've been disappointed for some time now. I like Tesla's mission and they've made some good moves, but over 2 years late seems a disturbing inability to execute given this is their 3rd vehicle. And I don't buy the rationalizations about battery supply, cannibalizing Model S, etc... Tesla knows more about these issues than we do and they still debuted the Model X to great fanfare. And then.... *thud* for 3 years. It's embarrassing and they really need to get their act together. It's wearing thin, imho.
