Will You Be Disappointed If Prod X Reservations don't start shipping for 6 Months?

If you mean starting March I wouldn't feel disappointed at all. I do think that Tesla has been vaguely setting expectations earlier than that but I try to make my own.

 

Yea, I admit I'll be pretty pissed as I initially was hoping to have mine by the end of the year. I think investors will be pretty pissed too.

 

I consider this an extremely unlikely possibility. I personally wouldn't mind any extra delay in taking possession of my car, but I would be bothered by Tesla's hypothetical inability to execute. This is hypothetical right? Hello? OP?

Philip

 

I'm fine with waiting as long as it takes and am in no rush to get my Model X. The BMW i3 I leased quenches my immediate desire to drive an EV and fills the gap of the expiring lease vehicle the Model X was supposed to replace, while my old Murano handles situations when I need to carry more people or cargo. I will welcome the Model X as soon as it arrives to replace the Murano, but have no pressing need to replace it other than getting a second ICE out of the garage.

 

For me as a shareholder in TSLA - not good, very disappointed.

As a reservation holder: I am ok to give Tesla the time they need to get it right. The car shall ship when it is ready.

 

I could handle 2 more years, easy.

 

I'm not expecting mine (4787) until March or April at the earliest. If I get it sooner, bonus! I'm also not expecting a folding flat second row any time soon (if ever). I am taking a "what I've seen (at the reveal) is what I get" attitude.

-CB

 

I would be disappointed, but not for the reason that you listed. Delays happen, how many car or software companies announce a new product a year in advance and a) Provide all of the details, b) keep the public informed of the status (let alone all it its employees) or c) manages to hit a target that far in advance.

 

Tesla delivered the Founders Vehicles. They have now asked all US Signature Series owners to Configure. Some Signature Reservation holders now have their VIN. Tesla has stated it is their intent to have other existing (not new) reservation holders to configure by the end of the 2015. That does not signal a six month delay. If there were a chance of six month delay, Tesla would (IMO) would not have taken these actions.

 

I'm with Johann on this one. As a reservation holder I can wait for them to have a good product. It also give me time to ponder whether I really, really should blow six figures on a car. Again.

 

Why are we even going here, does someone know that this will be the case. It will be what it will be but do we have to throw more negativity out there.

 

See that's where I think you're mistaken. I don't think Tesla is intentionally misleading anyone, by purposely withholding information about the X delivery timetable. I think they just *don't know* when production will ramp up and how quickly because some of the part supplies are still in question. Just as Tesla "promised" us cars by a certain time frame, so the suppliers have promised Tesla parts in the quantities that would be required in order to make these final delivery commitments happen. Maybe they're not committing to specific delivery dates because they've learned that the promises of certain suppliers are nothing but empty.

Last thing they (Tesla) want to do is go out on a limb based on supplier commitments because it's Tesla that will be held responsible for these commitments, no matter whose "fault" it was.

Personally, I'm bracing for lowered guidance for 2015 deliveries when they announce Q3 earnings (including a very small delivery estimate for the X). I think it will most likely hurt the stock. But I'm not selling a single share.

LONG live Tesla (and TSLA)!

 

Lowering 2015 guidance two quarters in a row would be pretty terrible. If they don't deliver 50,000 total vehicles in 2015, expect the stock to drop to $150 or so. I would agree it is just a "they don't know" situation, because if there was any thought that no more than 1,000 or fewer Model X would be delivered in 2015, you'd think the guidance would have been lowered to 45,000-50,000 vehicles.

 

I have number 13,7xx and don't expect delivery until August or September. How many do you expect they will deliver in the first six months?

 

I don't think the drop will be that drastic. And hey, if it is... "buying opportunity!" Slipped deadlines and delivery numbers are almost par for the course with Tesla these days. They probably did not know about the specific Model X supply issues in July or August when they reviewed Q2 earnings and lowered the guidance. I think delivering 1,000 Model Xes in 2015 is optimistic, given that they've shipped 5 to customers now. And if they do deliver 1,000 of them, that would leave, what? 16,000 Model S cars to deliver in one quarter to meet the low end of the 50-55K goal? That's about a 60% YOY increase from Q4 2014. Certainly possible, but that would be quite a feat. I don't want to dwell on this (this is not the investors forum), but I personally would not be shocked by lower guidance in the Q3 call. I have faith that the X will be both awesome and popular, but when they will really crank up production is anyone's guess.

 

To be honest I've been disappointed for some time now. I like Tesla's mission and they've made some good moves, but over 2 years late seems a disturbing inability to execute given this is their 3rd vehicle. And I don't buy the rationalizations about battery supply, cannibalizing Model S, etc... Tesla knows more about these issues than we do and they still debuted the Model X to great fanfare. And then.... *thud* for 3 years. It's embarrassing and they really need to get their act together. It's wearing thin, imho.