How much would this scenario bother you?
I'm not expecting mine (4787) until March or April at the earliest. If I get it sooner, bonus! I'm also not expecting a folding flat second row any time soon (if ever). I am taking a "what I've seen (at the reveal) is what I get" attitude.How much would this scenario bother you?
For me as a shareholder in TSLA - not good, very disappointed.
As a reservation holder: I am ok to give Tesla the time they need to get it right. The car shall ship when it is ready.
See that's where I think you're mistaken. I don't think Tesla is intentionally misleading anyone, by purposely withholding information about the X delivery timetable. I think they just *don't know* when production will ramp up and how quickly because some of the part supplies are still in question. Just as Tesla "promised" us cars by a certain time frame, so the suppliers have promised Tesla parts in the quantities that would be required in order to make these final delivery commitments happen. Maybe they're not committing to specific delivery dates because they've learned that the promises of certain suppliers are nothing but empty.If this turns out to be the case and Tesla just does not want to let me know. I understand they need to do what they need to do, I may do the same thing in their position. But I need to do what I need to do also.
Personally, I'm bracing for lowered guidance for 2015 deliveries when they announce Q3 earnings (including a very small delivery estimate for the X). I think it will most likely hurt the stock. But I'm not selling a single share.
LONG live Tesla (and TSLA)!
I have number 13,7xx and don't expect delivery until August or September. How many do you expect they will deliver in the first six months?If I am asked to configure before the end of the year, and don't end up getting the car until July 2016 or later, I will be very disappointed and feel misled (I am Prod #16,448).
I have number 13,7xx and don't expect delivery until August or September. How many do you expect they will deliver in the first six months?
I don't think the drop will be that drastic. And hey, if it is... "buying opportunity!" Slipped deadlines and delivery numbers are almost par for the course with Tesla these days. They probably did not know about the specific Model X supply issues in July or August when they reviewed Q2 earnings and lowered the guidance. I think delivering 1,000 Model Xes in 2015 is optimistic, given that they've shipped 5 to customers now. And if they do deliver 1,000 of them, that would leave, what? 16,000 Model S cars to deliver in one quarter to meet the low end of the 50-55K goal? That's about a 60% YOY increase from Q4 2014. Certainly possible, but that would be quite a feat. I don't want to dwell on this (this is not the investors forum), but I personally would not be shocked by lower guidance in the Q3 call. I have faith that the X will be both awesome and popular, but when they will really crank up production is anyone's guess.Lowering 2015 guidance two quarters in a row would be pretty terrible. If they don't deliver 50,000 total vehicles in 2015, expect the stock to drop to $150 or so. I would agree it is just a "they don't know" situation, because if there was any thought that no more than 1,000 or fewer Model X would be delivered in 2015, you'd think the guidance would have been lowered to 45,000-50,000 vehicles.