Poll: 81% of Prospective Model 3 Owners Say They Won’t Pay Upfront For Full Self-Driving

[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]It seems most prospective Model 3 owners aren’t willing to shell out cash upfront for a $3,000 “full self-driving capability” option that is likely years away from becoming available to engage.

In a poll posted by jsraw 81.3% (347) of respondents said they will not pay for the feature at purchase. Adding the option later will cost an additional $1,000. Of respondents, 18.7% said they will pay for FSD upfront.

According to Tesla’s website, FSD “doubles the number of active cameras from four to eight, enabling full self-driving in almost all circumstances, at what we believe will be a probability of safety at least twice as good as the average human driver. The system is designed to be able to conduct short and long distance trips with no action required by the person in the driver’s seat. For Superchargers that have automatic charge connection enabled, you will not even need to plug in your vehicle.”

Elon Musk has said that level 5 autonomous driving is possible with second generation Autopilot and the FSD option, meaning the car is fully autonomous in any and all conditions. During his TED talk in April, Musk said the company plans to conduct by the end of 2017 a coast-to-coast demo drive from California to New York without the driver touching the wheel.

Obviously, there will be regulatory hurdles ahead and Musk has said it will likely be two years before owners will be able to engage FSD capability.

See a few comments on the poll below, or go to the thread here.

Swift

EinSV

jason1466

Waiting4M3

Enginerd[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row]

 

[MiddKid]

I purchased a Model S in 2013 and took delivery of my Model X this past April. Love the cars, love Tesla. But I'm way beyond the stage of feeling like my $3K is an investment in the future. The price the vehicles are at already is my investment! I'll keep my $3K thank you.

So I didn't opt for FSD on my 100D MX. After driving it for the last four months I'm totally happy with that decision. EAP...wonderful on the freeway...disaster waiting to happen on the back roads. I take a back road to/from work every morning that has three small rolling hills. Coming over those hills EAP loses the lines EVERY time and swerves hard. If my hands aren't there it would wrap itself around a tree or into oncoming traffic. This is not a theory...I've tested it enough times now (when other cars aren't oncoming) to know this will happen.

This leads to me simply not using EAP. It's much easier to just drive on the back roads rather than trying to be engaged enough to have to take over in a split second. Hill coming...be ready. Turn lane coming...be ready. EAP is highways only for me right now.

Man, I hope they can deliver something but given the hardware right now and given the challenges the car has with something as simple as a hill I see FSD as a pipe dream. If that dream comes true...I'll happily pay the $1K premium to activate it later. But I simply don't see it anytime soon...if ever...with this hardware package. Being an owner for four years Tesla delivers on a lot...but there are a lot of broken promises as well.

Put your $3K into TSLA stock. When FSD is delivered you'll probably cover your $1K premium. Had I put my $3K into TSLA at $298.52 on April 3 (close to my delivery date of my MX) it would be worth $3,673 right now, 4 months later. By the time FSD arrives I've paid that $1K premium and more (and yes, I'd argue TSLA stock is a less risky return that handing Tesla $3K for a feature that is vaporware)!!!

Oh, BTW...Elon said "6 months definitely"...that was 7.5 months ago.

 

[JeffK]

what's being referred to by FSD is more accurately known as an autonomy level from 0 through to 5

Level Name
0 No Driving Automation
1 Driver Assistance
2 Partial Driving Automation
3 Conditional Driving Automation
4 High Driving Automation
5 Full Driving Automation

Depends.

You are citing the SAE levels. A vehicle can be FSD is a number of situations and still not be level 5. Although Tesla's aim is level 5 eventually, there are still a number of features between EAP and FSD in levels 3-5. ie. stopping for stop signs / stop lights etc.

 

[milleron]

Emphatically, no. With current hardware, Tesla cannot even implement EAP. It's so unreliable that even with AP2 hardware, I seldom turn it on. TACC doesn't even work as well as it did on the 2013 Ford I had before my 2017 Model S. Parallel parking worked flawlessly every time on that 2013 Ford without the necessity of "camera calibration," whereas I cannot trust my Model S to parallel or perpendicular self-park. After resetting the position for Home Link, it raises the garage door automatically 0-2 times before failing and requiring the position to be reset yet again. Model S cannot even remember where my driveway is for more than two days. FSD? Are you kidding??
I'm fairly convinced that FSD cannot be achieved without LIDAR and more RADAR than one forward-looking unit. I don't think it will become a reality on cars we're buying in 2017-18. IF it does ever become reliable on current hardware, then, and only then, I'll pay the $1,000 penalty to have it enabled after purchase, but FSD is too big a gamble to pay for it up front.

 

[Eliveo Cortan]

i see, good info thank you.

 

[chuck holmes]

What the hell is FSD?????? Why do people use abbreviations/accronyms and assume that everybody knows what the hell they are talking about. If you want to reference AWD, do it correctly 'All Wheel Drive (AWD)', Premium Upgrade Package (PUP), etc..

FSD is Fully Self Driving...

 

[DrivingRockies]

what's being referred to by FSD is more accurately known as an autonomy level from 0 through to 5

Level Name
0 No Driving Automation
1 Driver Assistance
2 Partial Driving Automation
3 Conditional Driving Automation
4 High Driving Automation
5 Full Driving Automation

Incorrect. It's more like 4 through 5.

 

[oktane]

I purchased a Model S in 2013 and took delivery of my Model X this past April. Love the cars, love Tesla. But I'm way beyond the stage of feeling like my $3K is an investment in the future. The price the vehicles are at already is my investment! I'll keep my $3K thank you.

So I didn't opt for FSD on my 100D MX. After driving it for the last four months I'm totally happy with that decision. EAP...wonderful on the freeway...disaster waiting to happen on the back roads. I take a back road to/from work every morning that has three small rolling hills. Coming over those hills EAP loses the lines EVERY time and swerves hard. If my hands aren't there it would wrap itself around a tree or into oncoming traffic. This is not a theory...I've tested it enough times now (when other cars aren't oncoming) to know this will happen.

This leads to me simply not using EAP. It's much easier to just drive on the back roads rather than trying to be engaged enough to have to take over in a split second. Hill coming...be ready. Turn lane coming...be ready. EAP is highways only for me right now.

Man, I hope they can deliver something but given the hardware right now and given the challenges the car has with something as simple as a hill I see FSD as a pipe dream. If that dream comes true...I'll happily pay the $1K premium to activate it later. But I simply don't see it anytime soon...if ever...with this hardware package. Being an owner for four years Tesla delivers on a lot...but there are a lot of broken promises as well.

Put your $3K into TSLA stock. When FSD is delivered you'll probably cover your $1K premium. Had I put my $3K into TSLA at $298.52 on April 3 (close to my delivery date of my MX) it would be worth $3,673 right now, 4 months later. By the time FSD arrives I've paid that $1K premium and more (and yes, I'd argue TSLA stock is a less risky return that handing Tesla $3K for a feature that is vaporware)!!!

Oh, BTW...Elon said "6 months definitely"...that was 7.5 months ago.

View attachment 240673

One of the best posts I've read on here in a long time. Fair and unbiased and accurate. Yes EAP sorta works, but it can fail miserably without warning, rendering the technology useless. It's more of a hassle to babysit AP2 than to simply turn your brain off and drive.

I'd say EAP is potentially good if you need to take a sip of water or something, but it is VERY risky to take your hands off the wheel and especially risky to divert your attention away from the road, due to the flaws with AP2. In those few seconds you are gambling that AP2 doesn't do something stupid or encounter a situation outside its programing (cones, road debris, merging traffic) that will prove fatal.

I would not count on any representations made by Tesla or Elon Musk. A lot of what they sell is vaporware. Do not purchase based on their future claims. Only spend your hard earned money based on what is available today. If you think it's worth it, go for it. You can always add FSD later. I think buying FSD is pissing your money away.

 

[Justin.]

I'm still on the fence. I could get some nice rims instead and save $1,500.

I'll make my decision based on whether or not I believe FSD will give me some benefits (even if not level 5) within the next 12 months. I assume EAP will not do everything right up until true self driving. I think there will be things that are not "Full Self Driving," but will only be part of the FSD package, like traffic lights and stop signs. So maybe you aren't getting the full promise of the $3k for FSD, but you will have additional features over those that don't.

 

[chuck holmes]

What if, I chose the FSD option on my model 3 and it doesn't manifest soon, and I decide I want to move into a model S that doesn't have FSD either, is my option on the 3 transferable to that car? In fact, is my reservation on the model three transferable to someone who wants to get a car without waiting 2 years?

 

[jgs]

In my state if I purchase it at the time of sale I believe it will increase my ownership tax due to increased MSRP.

That is... a very interesting point. Kind of makes me wish they'd go back to the software-locked battery capacity thing, and other software locks. The (legally, of course) avoidance of that tax might well pay for the increased price to enable the feature later.

 

[milleron]

As of the shareholder call [the company's cross-country autonomous drive] is still on but maybe late

"Maybe" . . . they couldn't even do a cross-country drive on Autopilot. They couldn't even complete a cross-county drive on Autopilot. Autopilot cannot even crest a hill successfully. IF they do a FSD trip from CA to NY, it will have way, way to many unplanned interruptions to count. I fear it's a pipe dream on current hardware. In fact, this plan reminds me of the legendary amorously aroused chipmunk floating on his back down the river while shouting "Raise the drawbridge, raise the drawbridge."

 

[broncobilly]

I selected NO for 2 reasons:
first, I'll pay the penalty IF it occurs in my lifetime.
second, how long will it take states to create laws allowing it.

 

[JeffK]

wonderful on the freeway...disaster waiting to happen on the back roads. I take a back road to/from work every morning that has three small rolling hills. Coming over those hills EAP loses the lines EVERY time and swerves hard. If my hands aren't there it would wrap itself around a tree or into oncoming traffic. This is not a theory...I've tested it enough times now (when other cars aren't oncoming) to know this will happen.

One of the best posts I've read on here in a long time. Fair and unbiased and accurate. Yes EAP sorta works, but it can fail miserably without warning, rendering the technology useless. It's more of a hassle to babysit AP2 than to simply turn your brain off and drive.

Seriously? The poster admits to using EAP on roads where it's not recommended and then complains about it not working correctly...

When used correctly the poster said it's "wonderful"

From the manual:

Warning: Autosteer is intended for use only on highways and limited-access roads with a fully attentive driver.

Over and over people keep confusing the future FSD capabilities with current EAP and trying to use their AP1/EAP cars in a FSD situations.

 

[ahagge]

I'll be sticking with Autopilot until FSD is out and tested for a couple of years. I'm willing to pay the penalty for not ordering up front.

 

[elmos_world]

im definitely gonna buy full self driving, and avoiding that 1k penalty is one of the reasons why

 

[MiddKid]

Seriously? The poster admits to using EAP on roads where it's not recommended and then complains about it not working correctly...

When used correctly the poster said it's "wonderful"

From the manual:

Over and over people keep confusing the future FSD capabilities with current EAP and trying to use their AP1/EAP cars in a FSD situations.

A few notes. I'm not complaining. I'm just giving a use case as an example of how far away FSD is if the car can't do EAP on a back road. The one thing I will note, however, is the conflicting info that Tesla itself provides:

• During my test drive the Tesla employee had me turn on EAP on a back road.
• During delivery I was taught how to use EAP, but never told Freeway only.
• Heck, during the Model 3 launch party Tesla was demonstrating EAP off-freeway. From Bloomberg: "But let’s get back to the driving. As I hit a gently twisting road near Tesla’s factory, where the launch party for employees would later be held, I flipped on Tesla’s Autopilot. The road lanes were poorly marked, but the car had no problem smoothly tracking its course and slowing when traffic demanded it." That road doesn't sound like what's in the manual.
• Oh wait...one more thing. Previous software had a fixed speed limit restriction on EAP when not on a divided highway. They released a software update that removed that and set it at 5MPH over the speed limit. Elon responded to a tweet that someone said they were testing it on a "45MPH road" and Elon confirmed the change. Again...a 45MPH speed limit road is typically neither a highway nor a limited access road. Heck, why have the software treat the two types of road differently if we're only supposed to use it on the freeway...just disable it. http://jalopnik.com/tesla-removes-restrictions-on-how-autopilot-does-the-sp-1791159618

 

[DavidAhrendts]

Even if it was fully functional (and I don't think they're quite there yet), there are regulatory matters to resolve before FSP can happen. Very curious about it, however. And I will order with the semi-autonomous system. Can't wait.

 

[JeffnReno]

I'll get EAP on my Model 3 if I get the full tax credit and if/when FSD becomes usable I'll get that also. If that requires me to pay a penalty then so be it. So far I haven't seen anywhere about a $1k penalty for the Model 3 but it will probably be the same as what has been offered on the Model S/X since the price appears to be the same.

 

[Turing]

I would bet a lot that before model 3 starts shipping in volume we start seeing FSD suite features begin to be activated, probably within the next 2-3 months.

 

[Nda721]

I purchased a Model S in 2013 and took delivery of my Model X this past April. Love the cars, love Tesla. But I'm way beyond the stage of feeling like my $3K is an investment in the future. The price the vehicles are at already is my investment! I'll keep my $3K thank you.

So I didn't opt for FSD on my 100D MX. After driving it for the last four months I'm totally happy with that decision. EAP...wonderful on the freeway...disaster waiting to happen on the back roads. I take a back road to/from work every morning that has three small rolling hills. Coming over those hills EAP loses the lines EVERY time and swerves hard. If my hands aren't there it would wrap itself around a tree or into oncoming traffic. This is not a theory...I've tested it enough times now (when other cars aren't oncoming) to know this will happen.

This leads to me simply not using EAP. It's much easier to just drive on the back roads rather than trying to be engaged enough to have to take over in a split second. Hill coming...be ready. Turn lane coming...be ready. EAP is highways only for me right now.

Man, I hope they can deliver something but given the hardware right now and given the challenges the car has with something as simple as a hill I see FSD as a pipe dream. If that dream comes true...I'll happily pay the $1K premium to activate it later. But I simply don't see it anytime soon...if ever...with this hardware package. Being an owner for four years Tesla delivers on a lot...but there are a lot of broken promises as well.

Put your $3K into TSLA stock. When FSD is delivered you'll probably cover your $1K premium. Had I put my $3K into TSLA at $298.52 on April 3 (close to my delivery date of my MX) it would be worth $3,673 right now, 4 months later. By the time FSD arrives I've paid that $1K premium and more (and yes, I'd argue TSLA stock is a less risky return that handing Tesla $3K for a feature that is vaporware)!!!

Oh, BTW...Elon said "6 months definitely"...that was 7.5 months ago.

View attachment 240673

Exactly what I'm doing