TMC is an independent, primarily volunteer organization that relies on ad revenue to cover its operating costs. Please consider whitelisting TMC on your ad blocker and becoming a Supporting Member. For more info: Support TMC
Start a Discussionhttps://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/tags/

Will you buy the Model 3 as an existing Tesla owner?

Discussion in 'Model 3' started by MXWing, Jan 10, 2017.

Tags:
?

Will you buy the Model 3 as an existing Tesla owner?

  1. Yes.

    33 vote(s)
    54.1%
  2. No.

    2 vote(s)
    3.3%
  3. Not an existing Tesla owner but yes I want to buy a 3.

    17 vote(s)
    27.9%
  4. Not an existing Tesla owner but no I don't want to buy the 3.

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  5. Undecided - but I have made a reservation.

    8 vote(s)
    13.1%
  6. Undecided - I have not made a reservation yet.

    1 vote(s)
    1.6%
  1. MXWing

    MXWing Active Member

    Joined:
    Oct 13, 2016
    Messages:
    1,337
    Location:
    Orange County, CA
    I'm trying to get a feel for demand of the Model 3 and see if I can solve some assumptions I have.

    I can't find the numbers but I am guessing the total Roadster, Model S, and Model X fleet is 225,000.

    Out of that 225,000 I am assuming that almost 100% are 2-car families which would want a second car and no reason not to make that car the Model 3.

    Current reservations are perhaps 500000? If so that would make half the reservations, existing Tesla owners?

    Anyone can drop out of their reservation but I feel that short of a catastrophe, they already have built in sales of 225,000 just from existing loyalists.

    If Tesla sells only 225,000 Model 3s in the 2-3 years, is that considered a flop?

    Feel free to support or punch holes in my argument. :)
     
    • Like x 1
  2. DrivingTheFuture

    Joined:
    Oct 21, 2015
    Messages:
    685
    Location:
    United States
    Your numbers seem a bit on the high side but on the low side when you estimate their sales... I wouldn't consider it a flop to only sell that much, but if all things go as planned I would expect them to sell close to 600,000 in 3 years (end of 2017- end of 2020) just my 2 cents (or Spidey sense)
     
  3. dsvick

    dsvick Active Member

    Joined:
    Jun 10, 2016
    Messages:
    1,489
    Location:
    NE Ohio
    When they announced the 373,000 reservations they also said that only about 7% of them were from prior owners, so that puts it at about 26,000 then. If the same percentage was maintained and they really do have upwards of half a million reservations now then you're still only looking at 35,000.
     
    • Informative x 1
  4. MXWing

    MXWing Active Member

    Joined:
    Oct 13, 2016
    Messages:
    1,337
    Location:
    Orange County, CA
    I think the participants here will help determine whether TSLA stock is 350 come 1-10-2018 or 150. :D
     
  5. MXWing

    MXWing Active Member

    Joined:
    Oct 13, 2016
    Messages:
    1,337
    Location:
    Orange County, CA
    From my gut feeling, I would feel a much higher percentage than 7% would be prior owners. I would say 25% would be a conservative minimum. The higher percentage of prior owners the better because there is a greater likelihood of executing on their reservation. Reasoning's include:

    1 - Affordability. A Model 3 even optioned out with Autopilot is ~ half the cost of an entry level MS/MX.
    2 - You already know what Elon time is when it comes to promises and deliveries.
    3 - You've already experienced the non traditional sales model.
    4 - You know your Model 3 will be 'obsolete' the second you take delivery compared to what is in the pipeline.
    5 - Your Model 3 might be in the shop a lot based on what happened to first S's and first X's that rolled off the line.
    6 - You are already drinking the Kool-Aid.
     
  6. MXWing

    MXWing Active Member

    Joined:
    Oct 13, 2016
    Messages:
    1,337
    Location:
    Orange County, CA
  7. Robwoodruff

    Robwoodruff Member

    Joined:
    Nov 21, 2016
    Messages:
    84
    Location:
    Ohio
    I have been driving my Model S 85 D for one year. I put my order in for the model 3 last year and figure it will probably be 2 more years before it comes in. Have decided to get another model S for my wife now instead of waiting for the model 3 but will still probably get the model 3 for my daughter when it is available.
     
    • Like x 1
  8. Az_Rael

    Az_Rael Supporting Member

    Joined:
    Jan 26, 2016
    Messages:
    2,651
    Location:
    Palmdale, CA
    I wasn't an owner when I made my Model 3 reservation, but I am now. I kept my reservation, but may not configure it when it first becomes an option for me.

    Overall I am waiting for reveal 2 to really decide. Driving a Model S has really taken the urgency out of the Model 3 rush for me. :)
     
    • Like x 2
  9. Paul Carter

    Paul Carter Active Member

    Joined:
    Apr 27, 2013
    Messages:
    1,657
    Location:
    Vancouver, BC
    I think half is way way way too high to assume for global ownership. Model3Tracker.info data with just over 6k has this pegged at 10.9%. IMHO, Regular / First Time Tesla Owners will far out number that by 9 or 10 fold. Like you'd expect a true mass market vehicle to be over a more niche product.

    upload_2017-1-10_10-37-23.png
     
    • Informative x 1
  10. BerTX

    BerTX Active Member

    Joined:
    May 2, 2014
    Messages:
    2,023
    Location:
    Texas/Washington
    You assume we have all already decided? I have a reservation, but it depends on several factors as to if we will actually pull the trigger.

    You need an "undecided" selection.
     
    • Like x 2
  11. MXWing

    MXWing Active Member

    Joined:
    Oct 13, 2016
    Messages:
    1,337
    Location:
    Orange County, CA
    Excellent point. I've added two options:

    Undecided - but reserved anyways
    Undecided - but did not reserve yet.
     
    • Like x 1
  12. JRD1

    JRD1 Member

    Joined:
    Sep 8, 2016
    Messages:
    40
    Location:
    Where I am
    The electrek article is referring to US sales vs global. So it would be 100,000 US sales vs 183,000 global (including US) sales.
     
  13. MXWing

    MXWing Active Member

    Joined:
    Oct 13, 2016
    Messages:
    1,337
    Location:
    Orange County, CA
    Makes sense, I wish I could edit the original post and dial down the sold numbers and reservation numbers.

    These were best guesses on my part but would serve everyone to be as accurate as possible.
     
  14. Boourns

    Boourns Member

    Joined:
    Mar 9, 2016
    Messages:
    921
    Location:
    Dallas
    Same.
     
  15. Bimbels

    Bimbels GoldMember

    Joined:
    Jan 18, 2016
    Messages:
    565
    Location:
    Newport, RI
    We have a Model S and the Model 3 will replace our ICE.
     
  16. dsvick

    dsvick Active Member

    Joined:
    Jun 10, 2016
    Messages:
    1,489
    Location:
    NE Ohio
    It's your thread and your estimate so you can certainly go with your gut. The 7% however came right from Tesla so I'm sure, at the time, it was pretty accurate. It might have changed since they made the announcement but, for the same reasons you mentioned, I'd expect that more prior owners would have reserved earlier rather than later, so I'd expect that the percentage would have gone down or remained the same.
     
    • Like x 1
  17. MXWing

    MXWing Active Member

    Joined:
    Oct 13, 2016
    Messages:
    1,337
    Location:
    Orange County, CA
    Good point, I wonder how much it matters that S and X owners get priority anyway so they wait because they can...? Have to add one more poll choice.
     
  18. Waiting4M3

    Waiting4M3 Active Member

    Joined:
    Apr 13, 2016
    Messages:
    1,789
    Location:
    San Jose
    Assuming Tesla owners would reserve a M3 only if they need a new car in the next 3 years to replace their 2nd car, average new car ownership lasts ~11 years, so ~27% of people would likely need a new car in the next 3 years, and reserve an M3. Given MS/MX sales of ~180K as others pointed out, I would guess ~50K of them would have reserved a M3 to replace the 2nd car. However Tesla owners may have a higher % leasing, so that number could be higher.
     
  19. mspohr

    mspohr Active Member

    Joined:
    Jul 27, 2014
    Messages:
    2,808
    Location:
    California
    They'll sell every car they can build.
     
    • Like x 1
  20. Darryl

    Darryl ModelXTracker.com Co-Adm

    Joined:
    Jul 27, 2015
    Messages:
    609
    Location:
    Palm Beach FL
    I have two Model 3's reserved and my wife has one reserved. Our thought is we have one Model 3 reserved to replace my wife's 2017 Chevy Volt. We will then keep the Volt for our visiting guests to use. We have two Model X's reserved for gift's for members of our family.

    We currently have a Model X P90DL which is going to be replaced by a Model X P100DL which we ordered in December and which should arrive in March.
     

Share This Page