I'm trying to get a feel for demand of the Model 3 and see if I can solve some assumptions I have. I can't find the numbers but I am guessing the total Roadster, Model S, and Model X fleet is 225,000. Out of that 225,000 I am assuming that almost 100% are 2-car families which would want a second car and no reason not to make that car the Model 3. Current reservations are perhaps 500000? If so that would make half the reservations, existing Tesla owners? Anyone can drop out of their reservation but I feel that short of a catastrophe, they already have built in sales of 225,000 just from existing loyalists. If Tesla sells only 225,000 Model 3s in the 2-3 years, is that considered a flop? Feel free to support or punch holes in my argument.