Wind News

[nwdiver]

Ah .. thanks.
So SPS NM has a 0.25 GW - 0.5 GW average load ?

Addendum:
This SPS pdf from 2011 has a table on p. 3 that calculates out to ~ 1E9 kWh SPSS NM annual consumption. At a CF of 50% (if true, as I wondered above) then Sagamore generation is 2x the consumption in 2011 of its NM SPS territory.

Something like that. I seem to recall their peak being <1GW. But that's the advantage of SPP, it aggregates all the utilities into a large regional operator so when it's windy in OK SPS can buy wind. If it's windy in NM they can sell it.

In the rate case Xcel said they expected a CF of ~52% for the wind farms IIRC.

 

[nwdiver]

Wow... this could be big...

'and give offshore wind projects for the first time a 30% ITC for projects that began construction starting Jan. 1, 2017 through Dec. 31, 2025.'​

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

EIA Electricity Power Monthly - December 2020 for October 2020.

Wind generation for October 2020 increased compared to October 2019, with 29.4TWh compared to 28.1TWh.

In rolling 12 month generation, wind power is at 323.1TWh and 7.97% of generation, up from 289.7TWh and 6.94% a year ago.

322.2MW of new capacity was added in October 2020. Planned new capacity for the next 12 months, decreased by 727.4MW, lowering the planned 12 month total to 19,087.6MW, which would increase total capacity by 17.42%.

Included estimated solar, solar plus wind has reached 11.11% of generation.

Wind

Capacity (MW):

Period	Prior	Change	New	Change
Month	109,227.6	322.2	109,549.8	0.29%
YTD	103,571.2	5,978.6	109,549.8	5.77%
Rolling	99,662.8	9,887.0	109,549.8	9.92%
Plan +12mo	20,137.2	-727.4	19,087.6	17.42%

Capacity Factor (MW):

Value	Prior	Change	New	Change
Month Capacity	99,561.1	9,666.5	109,227.6	9.71%
Month Factor	37.9%	-2.1%	35.8%	-5.54%
Rolling 12mo Factor	34.7%	0.3%	35.0%	0.91%

Generation (GWh):

Year	Month	YTD	Rolling	Month %	YTD%	Rolling
2019	28,144	243,369	289,691	8.67%	6.95%	6.94%
2020	29,419	271,561	323,098	9.26%	7.99%	7.97%
Difference	1,275	28,192	33,407	0.59%	1.05%	1.02%

Somewhat related to wind generation, we went for a drive yesterday afternoon (12/23). We finally had a sunny day, my wife is on vacation and wanted to go for a drive to enjoy the sun. I took the afternoon off to join her.

I think the picture was taken approximately at 45.10549854573665, -69.71467718702205. It's part of the Bingham Wind Farm. The turbines are 492 feet to the top of the blade, just under the 500 feet at which projects require FAA approval.

(Somewhere further west on ME-16, as you begin to descend, the view briefly opens up and provide a great view of the hills to the west. Probably not quite so good when the leaves come back onto any deciduous trees in the mix there. The foliage has a tendency to get in the way of the views here.)

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

EIA Electricity Power Monthly - January 2021 for November 2020.

Wind generation for November 2020 increased significantly compared to November 2019, with 33.8TWh compared to 25.7TWh. That is a new record for wind generation in a single month, even though November isn't normally especially windy.

In rolling 12 month generation, wind power is at 331.9TWh and 8.21% of generation, up from 292.7TWh and 7.03% a year ago.

1,425.8MW of new capacity was added in November 2020. Planned new capacity for the next 12 months, increased by 666.5MW, increasing the planned 12 month total to 18,328.3MW, which would increase total capacity by 16.52%.

Included estimated solar, solar plus wind has reached 11.42% of generation.

Wind

Capacity (MW):

Period	Prior	Change	New	Change
Month	109,549.8	1,425.8	110,975.6	1.30%
YTD	103,571.2	7,404.4	110,975.6	7.15%
Rolling	100,739.1	10,236.5	110,975.6	10.16%
Plan +12mo	19,087.6	666.5	18,328.3	16.52%

Capacity Factor (MW):

Value	Prior	Change	New	Change
Month Capacity	99,997.4	9,546.7	109,544.1	9.55%
Month Factor	35.5%	6.8%	42.3%	19.15%
Rolling 12mo Factor	34.8%	0.7%	35.6%	2.13%

Generation (GWh):

Year	Month	YTD	Rolling	Month %	YTD%	Rolling
2019	25,656	268,411	292,717	8.04%	7.02%	7.03%
2020	33,848	305,409	331,904	11.11%	8.25%	8.21%
Difference	8,192	36,998	39,187	3.07%	1.23%	1.18%

 

[RubberToe]

AB525: Offshore Wind Generation
Develop a strategic plan by 6-1-22 to implement:
3GW by 2030
10GW by 2040

Bill Text - AB-525 Energy: offshore wind generation.

@ItsNotAboutTheMoney shows about 100,000MW total installed wind in the U.S. The 10,000MW in AB525 would add about 10% to that number. Currently, the Diablo Canyon nuclear reactor generates 2,256MW, so say 4x more than the reactor that will be shutting down. Diablo produces about 10% of in-state electricity. So AB525 would essentially end up replacing the lost 10% of nuclear with 40% off-shore wind.

RT

 

[Ampster]

I have a long time friend that lives in Texas and he continually sends me information about why wind energy is bad. I finally pointed out to him that Texas has more wind generation than any other states and a year ago ranked fifth in the world.

 

[nwdiver]

about why wind energy is bad

Bad how? Uneconomic or killing birds or?

 

[SageBrush]

AB525: Offshore Wind Generation
Develop a strategic plan by 6-1-22 to implement:
3GW by 2030
10GW by 2040

Bill Text - AB-525 Energy: offshore wind generation.

@ItsNotAboutTheMoney shows about 100,000MW total installed wind in the U.S. The 10,000MW in AB525 would add about 10% to that number. Currently, the Diablo Canyon nuclear reactor generates 2,256MW, so say 4x more than the reactor that will be shutting down. Diablo produces about 10% of in-state electricity. So AB525 would essentially end up replacing the lost 10% of nuclear with 40% off-shore wind.

RT

A bit of nitpicking --
Off-shore wind has ~ 1/3 more capacity than on-shore
Nuclear has ~ 2x the capacity of off-shore

So the off-shore proposal is ~ 2x Diablo

--
By the way, I listened in on a state planning commission this week and was told that NM thinks they can build 6 GW of lines to CA by the end of the decade. Not bad ... until you realize that NM has 450* GW of exploitable wind resources. What can I say ... anything less than development of 10% of the state resource this decade is pathetic

*Four hundred and fifty Gigawatts

 

[nwdiver]

A bit of nitpicking --
Off-shore wind has ~ 1/3 more capacity than on-shore
Nuclear has ~ 2x the capacity of off-shore

So the off-shore proposal is ~ 2x Diablo

--
By the way, I listened in on a state planning commission this week and was told that NM thinks they can build 6 GW of lines to CA by the end of the decade. Not bad ... until you realize that NM has 450* GW of exploitable wind resources. What can I say ... anything less than development of 10% of the state resource this decade is pathetic

*Four hundred and fifty Gigawatts

We really need Federal help. Everything I've heard about building transmission infrastructure is that it's a compete nightmare of easements and dozens of jurisdictions. It's like building a pipeline without the profit motive. They've been trying to build a 30GW HVDC 'superstation' in NM for >10 years and haven't even broken ground yet...

Tres Amigas SuperStation

 

[Ampster]

Bad how? Uneconomic or killing birds or?

The ones about wind farms are mostly about killing birds. One was from an organizations that gets their funding from some pipeline owners and it stated that the reason for high energy costs was due to the high cost of renewables. I just got another one from him about how Lithium and Cobalt mining are bad. I asked him if he is going to give up his smart phone. I think the fossil fuel industry is getting desperate when they have to use environmental arguments instead of economic arguments.

I remind my friend in Texas that I will visit him when I pick up my Cybertruck at the factory in Austin.

 

[SageBrush]

We really need Federal help. Everything I've heard about building transmission infrastructure is that it's a compete nightmare of easements and dozens of jurisdictions. It's like building a pipeline without the profit motive. They've been trying to build a 30GW HVDC 'superstation' in NM for >10 years and haven't even broken ground yet...

Not so much in the case of NM. The ROW already exists.

The NM RETA people are trying to appease the locals so they are planning for AC (which can be tapped into locally) rather than DC.
The RETA folk are short sighted. The state is vastly better off with deep development instead of local pilfering.

 

[Missile Toad]

AB525: Offshore Wind Generation
Develop a strategic plan by 6-1-22 to implement:
3GW by 2030
10GW by 2040

Bill Text - AB-525 Energy: offshore wind generation.
RT

Normally, when talking about wind energy installations, the GW is expressed in nameplate capacity. In other words, when the wind is blowing at optimal speeds, and the wind turbine is neither curtailed nor impaired by, e.g., icing.

Because wind is intermittent, what you end up having to do to get an _approximation_ of the wind turbine's output, is you have to apply a capacity factor, that is consistent with the prevailing winds in the area. In the windswept plains of the the middle of the U.S., a typical capacity factor is around 42%. Much of the remainder, and in particular, the coasts, is closer to 35%. So, the 2040 numbers, for example, are more realistically:

10,000 MW x .35 = 3,500 MW

some use of stationary batteries and demand response can maybe smooth out the peaks and the valleys. However, overall, off-shore proposal, is closer to 165% of Diablo.

 

[iPlug]

...On land, capacity factors range from 0.26 to 0.52...Offshore winds are generally stronger than on land, and capacity factors are higher on average (expected to reach 51% by 2022 for new projects)...​

http://css.umich.edu/sites/default/files/Wind Energy_CSS07-09_e2020.pdf

They estimate 52% offshore wind capacity factor in CA here:
http://castlewind.com/wp-content/up...leWind-OffshoreWindValueReport_compressed.pdf

 

[RubberToe]

Wow, freezing wind turbines knocked offline:

Midland Reporter-Telegram: Frozen wind turbines hamper Texas power output, grid operator says.
Frozen wind turbines hamper Texas power output, grid operator says

 

[SageBrush]

Wow, freezing wind turbines knocked offline:

Midland Reporter-Telegram: Frozen wind turbines hamper Texas power output, grid operator says.
Frozen wind turbines hamper Texas power output, grid operator says

I noticed that our NM wind power is also way down the last couple of days, perhaps for the same reason.
I presume that wind turbines in Scandinavia have mitigations, that have not been adapted in the USA SW due to the infrequency of occurrences.

 

[JRP3]

I assume it's blade icing? Like airplane wing icing? I must admit I'd never considered that problem.

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

I noticed that our NM wind power is also way down the last couple of days, perhaps for the same reason.
I presume that wind turbines in Scandinavia have mitigations, that have not been adapted in the USA SW due to the infrequency of occurrences.

There are different mitigations:
- phobic coatings
- blade heaters
- spray as needed from the air (similar to airplanes)
Developers will obviously use whichever is the most profitable.

 

[SmartElectric]

There are different mitigations:
- phobic coatings
- blade heaters
- spray as needed from the air (similar to airplanes)
Developers will obviously use whichever is the most profitable.

Bingo
Texas Rolling Blackouts Are Due To Economics, Not Renewables

According to the Canadian government, wind turbines installed in Canada often have “cold weather packages” installed. Heating, water-resistant coatings, and other mitigation measures can be installed on turbines expected to frequently operate in freezing temperatures with moisture to keep the blades turning and keep the power going in temperatures as low as -30 Celsius.

Renewable energy is a viable option in nearly all climates as long as you plan for the unique challenges you’re likely to face. When things go wrong like they did in Texas in the last few days, it’s economics and not renewables that are to blame.

 

[CrazyRabbit]

on monday this was wind production, near zero... it isn't uncommon when it is windy to see greater then 20Gw, but not on this day. i believe we have over 25Gw of wind installed in Texas.
this cold snap was long and cold, lakes and ponds froze, i had over 255 hours below 32, and right now i'm finally above freezing. even if NG plants were not having problems, we were out of NG as well had been tapped at to high of a rate for to long. wells start reducing production as they get too cold to produce gas (NG liquid expanding to gas is a endothermic process).

Ercot wind production graph...

 

[nwdiver]

on monday this was wind production, near zero... it isn't uncommon when it is windy to see greater then 20Gw, but not on this day. i believe we have over 25Gw of wind installed in Texas.
this cold snap was long and cold, lakes and ponds froze, i had over 255 hours below 32, and right now i'm finally above freezing. even if NG plants were not having problems, we were out of NG as well had been tapped at to high of a rate for to long. wells start reducing production as they get too cold to produce gas (NG liquid expanding to gas is a endothermic process).

Ercot wind production graph...
View attachment 638093

If I'm doing the math correctly... Starship will carry enough CH4 to power a 1GW gas plant for nearly 24 hours. So clearly it's possible to store CH4. Seems like Gas plants need to have more of a buffer. What does that have to do with wind?