Do you understand the HVAC is constantly pulling in fresh cold air that needs heating.
You didn't quote, so I can't tell who you are replying to.
The HVAC doesn't heat air that isn't being moved. I turn off the fan if I don't need cabin heat.
If the pack falls into the high 40s we can see reduced regen, but that doesn't mean the pack is heated, still affects consumption since we aren't recapturing that energy.
Sorry, I'm not following. What energy aren't you recapturing??? Do you mean the energy the regen isn't recovering? Unless the temps drop near freezing I find the regen still works enough that unless I get caught by a yellow light I still get enough regen that I don't have to hit the brakes. In reality that's where the lost energy goes, needing to use the brakes, not the lower amount of regen.
How long have you been driving a Tesla?
Winter consumption for my car will show in the 500s with some preheating, have had the 5 mile average spike over 800 if I forget to preheat, my commute is little under 7 miles each way. Based on that you would think I have no chance to make the Way Claire supercharger 180miles away with my P85 that only charges to 242 miles when cold. Reality is that once the cabin is warm consumption falls back much closer to normal and in low single digits the 180miles is no problem.
Tires also require a fall top up as pressure falls due to temp.
I assume you are talking about the energy spike that shows up in the first couple of miles when starting out. I've never figured out what causes that. I see it regardless of temperature, so I don't think it is a cold battery thing.