Tough call. Let me throw a wrench into this and suggest if money is no object have 3 sets? Michelin 21" supersports for 3/4 of the year, AS3+'s for the cold months, and dedicated winters (Alpins, Sottozero's, Hakka's) for the few times you go up the mountain. As long as you have the ability to change the sets on and off quickly. I do it myself in about half an hour so it would no bother for me, but I wouldn't if I had to bring it to someone else and wait (and pay) for them to do it. The downfall is with that little mileage in about 5-7 years the winter tires will actually get old and oxidize before they actually wear out.
If not, then I think chancing putting your brand new Raven in the ditch should supersede the notion of an extra 10% of possible performance the AS3+'s probably give over the WRG4's. (I say probably as I expect it, but haven't tried the AS3+ yet, but I think you would be surprised at how well the WRG4's initiate turns and hold lines)
Here are owners reviews: and here is one of them regarding spirited driving from a vehicle with stiffer suspension than the Raven.
"My wife chose a Mini JCW Countryman AWD for her family / rally car. Nice build with 6 spd manual and no cursed sunroof. I was delighted to find this thing is a rocket. All except for the OE tires. These were rock hard, noisy, poor performing junk. After 6 months of useless talks with Mini, we gave up and bought a set of WR G4s. Being used to fast cars, I was wondering if the Nokians were up to the Minis performance. Indeed they are. Right away turn-in was smooth and positive. Higher speed stability is very good. Tire noise went way down on most surfaces. The ride got a lot better but they do feel like performance tires. I don't mind this at all. Up to about .7 Gs cornering, the steering and grip is similar to top quality performance rubber. Beyond that the tires progressively loose and regain traction, just what you want..."
Thanks! I really appreciate the input and discussion. It sounds like we're on the exact same though process so far.
I'm no stranger to the Nokians, I ran the original WRs on a Subaru WRX STi and had WRG3s on an Outback recently and WRG3 SUVs on the minivan I just sold yesterday.
What I haven't done before is owned a supercar like the P100DL so I'm concerned about giving up anything by going with the Nokians. I actually think the WRG4s will have better efficiency since they are a low rolling resistance tire...but how much performance and feel am I giving up?
Another consideration is local service. I can buy the Michelins locally and have them installed by a local shop I trust who will help deal with treadwear warranty type of things, since I expect the S is going to eat tires. The Nokians are mail order only around here.
I can swap wheels myself with no issue and have storage space, but I'm not so excited about spending another $2,500 immediately for a another set of 19s.
The long term solution might actually be to put WRG4s for year-round use on my wife's Dual Motor LR Model 3 when her OEM tires wear out. We could drive that to PA and I would be confident we can handle whatever weather gets thrown at us.
BUT I have to do something immediately because driving on the PSS daily in the Model S is not an option...
I keep going around in circles!