Wisconsin: buy a Model X, fears

[jerry33]

1. When I purchased my early 2013 S, there were three Superchargers in California--about 1500 miles away. We went on many trips mostly charging in RV parks. RVParking.com is a great resource as it shows the electrical connections. (Be sure to purchase the 14-50 adapter for the mobile connector from the Tesla Shop.) With a bit of planning, you can do most of the charging while you sleep.
2. & 3. No direct experience.
4. Delivery quality. I had zero issues when I traded the 2013 S for a 2020 X. None have come up in the 9K miles I've driven so far. (CV-19 really puts a damper on the amount of driving, so almost all the miles are trip miles--and plenty of deer.)
5. The vehicle cost of the 2013 S (85 non-performance) which had 130K miles ended up being $46K after trade in.

 

[ColdWeatherEV]

Well that sucks. What year X? Raven? LR or LR+? You joined April of 2020, so it could be a LR+ and that's not good for me.

If I slow charge at work right before leave, would be 203 miles Door to Door. With a brand new LR+ EPA at 351miles, doable cold winter? I would hope so, even if loose 35% range(Volt looses 34% in that condition), would be 228 miles, so still have 25 miles left or almost 10%????

Keeping the Volt, so could use that, because hey, after 35(winter) to 53(summer) miles, it seamlessly switches over and starts spewing CO2 into the atmosphere. Plus the waste heat is a good thing in the winter. But it can go 1000s of miles, anywhere there is a gas station, so there is that.

Looked at PlugShare and there are some L2 options along the way between house and cabin that didn't exist before. Not fast charging, but beats running out of juice. One is 8 miles from dest, so that really doesn't help much. Some are at campgrounds, so closed in Winter. One is Tesla Dest at a Winery, open 24/7, but 30 miles out of the way and only 16Kw/hour. But would be a backup plan....

I have a 2017 X 100D (pre raven, EPA 295 miles when new). We have had it almost 3 years and have driven over 53,000 miles. I haven't regretted a minute owning or driving this car. While it has its quirks and limitations, the positives outweigh the negatives. As far as winter goes, it is the best winter car I have ever owned, for any trip under 200 miles. My Subaru collects dust most of the time. I know you wish that the X had further range, that a service center was closer, and that any nearby body shop could do collision repair. All of these thing will come true in the future and you could wait until then to make the leap. On the other hand, maybe you won't need much service, will be lucky and not have to do any collision repairs, or just decide to leave the Tesla at home when it is -20 F and you are heading to the cabin. If you buy the Tesla, I'm sure your love/hate relationship with the car will mostly be love.

 

[FirstInTown]

I expect anyone referring to a 100X is referring to a pre-Raven. I think it was with the ravens that the branding switched to long range.

I have a 100D coming up on 40,000 miles and the longest stretch I’ve ever done is 197 miles. While I can technically go further my longest stretch gets defined by the placement of chargers. I spent a lot of time earlier this year trying to include UP in a long road trip, so well aware that the charging situation there isn’t ideal. Yet. I decided to wait as nothing was necessitating my trip.

@FirstInTown, you seem like you have the will and spirit to play the charging game. I’m betting you could find a way to make things work. But the winter is indeed hardest, by a lot. I cut my teeth on EVs with my model X starting in November 2017 and the efficiency in winter is just rough. But the car always starts, no matter how cold it is!

Well the newest Raven LR+ is what makes this all possible for me, maybe. The newest ones are 351,vs 295 EPA rating. That extra 56 miles for me, a fringe case, is HUGE! Makes so could be possible to go to cabin and a EV SUV a possibility.

And yes, I think I can play the game and make it happen. I'm old enough to not think cars have to have 22+ inch wheels to look good. Bigger rim = Kills range and rides harsher with larger chance for rim damage or outright blowouts. For what? Looks in eye of beholder and my eye doesn't think bigger looks any better, looks the same and has above listed downsides.
(/end older guy rant). So have looked at definitely getting the 19s for winter. Even found some old S 19" areos on ebay, but not sure of the load rating and the X being such a heavy car. Nokian makes some SUV winter tires @ 235r55-19s that ARE rated for the X load and same outside diameter as winter package 265s. Nice narrow, tall tire for great snow going and less frontal wind drag for lowest kw/mile.

 

[FirstInTown]

If the cabin is yours add an outlet, contrary to popular belief there are options between a 5-15 basic wall outlet and a 14-50 outlet. A 10-30/14-30 "dryer" outlet should be fine if spending time at the cabin. Not going to make a day trip of it.

On the efficiency, the -20f is getting too much attention the OP will occasionally see that at home but while the cabin is north, since it is basically up in Lake Superior it averages warmer there, I lived on the Keweenaw 4 years I am familiar. Also Da U.P. has exactly zero miles of 60mph road last I checked, that is going to help efficiency.

Have you been on plugshare some kind fellow Tesla owner bought an abandoned building north of Calumet and put in an outlet.
I stayed at an Airbnb near Calumet Water Works a couple doors down from a kind couple who list their J1772 on Plugshare.

Cabin is ours and use a 230v dryer plug to charge Volt. Right, would not be day tripping, is always weekends, but would probably add a 48a charger (11Kw/hr) like just got at home to be sure could be charged 100% right before leave for home even if used car while up there.

Correct, U. P. doesn't see Temps below 0 deg f often. In 4 years at college up there Coldest I ever remember was - 14 one morning. But 0 to 10 is still going to kill range with battery losses and cabin heat.

The U. P. added some official 65 mph zones 2 year's ago. Hyway 2 and from Watersmeets 30 miles north. And it is known, the limit up there has always been pushed without getting much problems from law enforcement. 7-9 over never a problem. So 72 mph in the one stretch, no problem in the summer. Snow kills that speed in the winter though.

I did see on Plugshare the nice guy who added a electrical jack in Ahmeek. That is literally 8 miles from cabin and go by that house each time. Never seen but will look for it Friday as going up to isolate and see fall colors. So yes, going could use in an emergency, but those last 8 miles are mostly down hill to Lake Superior, so would probably make it anyway. Coming home is more of a challenge. Normal house is at an altitude 1000 feet higher than Lake Superior and cabin right on lake. Volt gets better MPGe going up than coming home, so altitude change takes more energy coming back home (obviously). There is a J1772 public charger in Houghton. That is 26 miles closer to home. 7kw rate is slow, but if charge/eat in Houghton before leave, that makes trip just under 200 miles. See I can make this work

 

[outdoors]

I have had no big problems charging in the UP since 2017. I travel rountinly to Houghton and Ontonagon during winter from the lower Peninsula. I love the winter. Back then and still today I have learned the word flexibility. I don't race through the barrels to get up there I take my time. Winter driving this is key for an EV.

Things that help.

Develop a network of friends. I have friends in Crystal Falls and Shingleton. They put 14-50's in polebarn/garages. Not a big deal. Most folks up there know how to wire. Coffee can holds the charging money. If there are there great. I did this in Miles City, Montana before superchargers were a thought there. I just said hey would you mind doing this. I will pay. They said sure. If I get to see you more. Stronger friendship all because of charging.

Plugshare as you mention. Yet I am weary sometimes in the UP as people don't check in as frequently as they should. I have arrived to a busted up charger from time to time. Not likely in town settings. More so the ones installed at parks and municipal areas that are rural.

Don't wait after realizing you need might need a charge to take action. Your family might not enjoy your stressed out moment. I know mine don't.

Get the charger installed at cabin. Rolling in at 4-5% is not a big deal if you know you have a way to get back out.

Finally a little data to wet your whistle. I have 14,680 miles in the 0-15 degree range according to Tesla Fi on my S100D. Average of 65.7% of efficiency. I am not heavy on the heat. Love heated seats. Just enough to keep the window clear. Edit: Efficiency on drives longer than 25 miles

You can do it. It will be fun, and after the superchargers get installed you can say you were a pioneer.

 

[SSedan]

Taller narrower tires might offer some snow advantage but not range.

There are folks around here who fixate on all the wrong things about tires and wheels. They fixate on rim diameter which is meaningless, if it is heavier then sure it will hurt efficiency in stop and go but "range" implies long distance fairly steady speed, few acceleration events means little opportunity to waste energy accelerating a heavy tire/wheel package. Tread compound often get softer with bigger rims, that is what hurts range.
Narrower tires are not any sort of meaningful range trick either though I saw one YouTuber do as bad a test as possible "proving" it was, too bad his baseline test had his 3 using about X like amounts of energy.
Everyone thinks they know more then the Tesla engineers and can squeak out a bit more range, but the engineers have done a darn good job of balancing priorities.
Speed is the number one way to affect range, drive fast and you hurt range, drive slow and you stretch it, if you use nav and are cutting it close the car will coach you to slow down.
Preheating the cabin aggressively is something I do in winter if making a long trip, just to save having the first few miles be very heavy usage. I have done Minneapolis a few times in cold weather and that is an over 180mile stretch between home and Eau Claire no problem, but that is mostly 55mph roads. On the flip side work is a little under 7 miles away and in sub-zero weather my morning commute can triple fair weather consumption, overall daily driving consumption doubles or more vs. fair weather, but then Eau Claire being long distance I can still average over 85% efficiency at low single digits.

You could consider a trip to the Fox Valley this weekend National Drive Electric Week • Appleton • Appleton, WI • Oct 04, 2020 is a good research opportunity for you.

 

[FirstInTown]

Taller narrower tires might offer some snow advantage but not range.

There are folks around here who fixate on all the wrong things about tires and wheels. They fixate on rim diameter which is meaningless, if it is heavier then sure it will hurt efficiency in stop and go but "range" implies long distance fairly steady speed, few acceleration events means little opportunity to waste energy accelerating a heavy tire/wheel package. Tread compound often get softer with bigger rims, that is what hurts range.
Narrower tires are not any sort of meaningful range trick either though I saw one YouTuber do as bad a test as possible "proving" it was, too bad his baseline test had his 3 using about X like amounts of energy.
Everyone thinks they know more then the Tesla engineers and can squeak out a bit more range, but the engineers have done a darn good job of balancing priorities.



You could consider a trip to the Fox Valley this weekend National Drive Electric Week • Appleton • Appleton, WI • Oct 04, 2020 is a good research opportunity for you.

I know narrow, tall snows are REALLY good in snow compared to wide A/S tires. Something about the contact patch being 'longer' instead of 'wider' and how it packs the snow for grip. The OEM Michelin Fuel Saver A/S tires on the Volt were DANGEROUS in snow/ice. Wife refused to ride in it until I went from OEM 17's to narrower Hakka R3 snows on 15s(width is 215s down to 195s). VERY IMPRESSIVE, sold our AWD 'winter beater' and use the Volt now in winter, even when snows. Now, run that tire on Volt, son's Volt, Daughters Niro HEV and wife's SRX. The R3 is designed for better MPG, as snows are softer and take more energy than A/S to roll. I don't really think the tires were a major cause of MPG loss on the Volt compared to the A/S. The COLD is way worse and affected car with either tire. I have a fun Thanksgiving swapping every bodies tires from A/S to snows.

I'm not sure the kw/mile science of why 18s are better than 20s, are better than 22,s but is exists. City accel /decel and less wieght? Narrower deceases frontal area of car so as high speed less drag? Rubber compounds are different as rims get bigger? Don't know, but seems lots of test show bigger = less MPG. (also, turning rant back on, the larger the hole in the tire, the more $$$$$ is costs to replace. And I see the MX is not easy on tires. So add $$$$$$ to the down side of larger rims. (/end additional rant>

And the engineers don't always get their way I'm sure. If so for max MPG, cars would have the Aero covers on the rims like M3 and old MS used to. But PEOPLE think they are ugly (I agree) and are willing to waste some energy for 'better looking' open style rims. Again 'better looking' is a feeling in eye of beholder, kw/mile is science. Heck it looks like the take on the MS was so low, they only made the AERO rims a couple years. People are emotional creatures and looks can win out over logic of smooth rims.

Didn't know about the thing in the Appleton area. Plan to go to the U.P. is pretty fixed, so can't go this weekend. Thanks for the info through. Might have to schedual a MX test drive at Tesla MN.

 

[VikH]

FWIW, I wouldn't by a Tesla if I didn't live within 1 hour of the Service Center. There are a lot of Youtubers that do it and they end up complaining a lot.

Regarding resale, don't count on any strong resale value. Especially since the Model X is badly need of an update.

 

[SSedan]

On the Aero-wheels, the slipstreams, turbines, tempest are all efforts to make more aerodynamic and aesthetic wheels.

I put slipstreams on my S and while I didn't use the same tires I didn't see a meaningful range hit going from OEM Michelins to a UHP all season so I believe the slipstreams offset loss I would have seen from the tires.
My car came with the old twin spoke wheels.

Point being I believe the aero wheels were a big gain when released compared to the twin spoke, but I also believe most of the aerodynamic gains are baked into the current wheels, maybe not all but most.

 

[jerry33]

I'm not sure the kw/mile science of why 18s are better than 20s, are better than 22,s but is exists.

Given the same carrying capacity of each of the tires, as you increase rim diameter, section width has to be increased to carry the load (e.g. the air volume should remain the same). Increased section width also means increased tread width. The tread and belts also have to be wider, so there is a lot more resistance when bending into and out of the contact patch area. There are other reasons as well, but that's the big one.

 

[FirstInTown]

FWIW, I wouldn't by a Tesla if I didn't live within 1 hour of the Service Center. There are a lot of Youtubers that do it and they end up complaining a lot.

Regarding resale, don't count on any strong resale value. Especially since the Model X is badly need of an update.

Yet some in Madison have done it. Guy said was 3 hours from service. How far does the Mobile Service go out? Plus an electric car is more reliable right? Have had 0 problems with Volt, so if better than that I'm Golden . I'm 1 hours from a Chevy dealer for the Volt so not in-town as is.

Resale is the killer. The used MX 100D 2017 or newer for sale bottoms out close to $60,000 as minimum. I could live with that. as a loss of $7-$8k/year then take off gas savings and isn't alot more than loosing now on the used Caddy we bought. If the MX in 3 years with 40,000 miles was worth $40k, that would hurt! (Have solar on house so MX would use that as over produce 7+ months a year and get cr^%P from the netmeeting extra I sell to the power company, so gas savings are real for us.)

 

[Bigriver]

Resale is the killer. The used MX 100D 2017 or newer for sale bottoms out close to $60,000 as minimum. I could live with that. as a loss of $7-$8k/year

I think your calc is assuming that 2017 MX 100D prices were about what the new cars sell for now. They were a lot more expensive in 2017. I think anyone who bought then or earlier takes a blood bath on depreciation - but only if you sell! As Tesla is able to make the car cheaper, they do pass some of that onto the consumer by lowering prices. Historically the cars have gotten better and cheaper. The last time I priced out the new price for the closest equivalent of my 3 year old Model X, it is more than $20k cheaper now. At times, that aches just a bit... but the past 3 years with the car have really been phenomenal.

 

[FirstInTown]

I think your calc is assuming that 2017 MX 100D prices were about what the new cars sell for now. They were a lot more expensive in 2017. I think anyone who bought then or earlier takes a blood bath on depreciation - but only if you sell! As Tesla is able to make the car cheaper, they do pass some of that onto the consumer by lowering prices. Historically the cars have gotten better and cheaper. The last time I priced out the new price for the closest equivalent of my 3 year old Model X, it is more than $20k cheaper now. At times, that aches just a bit... but the past 3 years with the car have really been phenomenal.

But.. Car and Drive listed Tesla cars (3, S, X as having the LOWEST losses in 3 year leases. Don't know how to post a link the the article but was Sept 6, 2020 Car and Driver. Was about now 3 is REALLY good but S and X are also great.

 

[ElectricIAC]

I expect anyone referring to a 100X is referring to a pre-Raven. I think it was with the ravens that the branding switched to long range.

I have a 100D coming up on 40,000 miles and the longest stretch I’ve ever done is 197 miles. While I can technically go further my longest stretch gets defined by the placement of chargers. I spent a lot of time earlier this year trying to include UP in a long road trip, so well aware that the charging situation there isn’t ideal. Yet. I decided to wait as nothing was necessitating my trip.

@FirstInTown, you seem like you have the will and spirit to play the charging game. I’m betting you could find a way to make things work. But the winter is indeed hardest, by a lot. I cut my teeth on EVs with my model X starting in November 2017 and the efficiency in winter is just rough. But the car always starts, no matter how cold it is!

Here’s our longest run without stops on our Raven Standard Range. The potential is there.

 

[FirstInTown]

Here’s our longest run without stops on our Raven Standard Range. The potential is there.
View attachment 594488

Cool data. What app/program gets you this? Nothing like this for my Volt.

Arrived with what? about 15% charge left? And did loose altitude over the whole trip, return trip would take more energy on same path. Still for the speed got really good range.

 

[zecar]

Y has even less range. And plenty of quality issues. They all do. Raven X is in another league on long drives.

OP: Is that 16Amp 120V? If you can swing 20Amp 240V at your destination it would make a huge difference.

The EPA difference is 30 miles. The Y will charge a lot faster at 16A.

The Y will likely have similar reliability as the Model 3. The X is one of the lowest rate cars on consumer reports for reliability.

The current X is likely near end of life. The Y is new. The Y will likely hold resale value better not only in dollars but also as a percent of purchase price. I would consider an X today with kids at home. For a couple concerned with truw cost per year it's not a particularly good value.

 

[jerry33]

The current X is likely near end of life.

Unlikely, it's a halo car. Also CR is about the last place I turn to for ratings, as they have been more wrong than right in their ratings of just about everything. In addition, although the early X had issues, the later models (such as my 2020) appear to be very good.

 

[mswlogo]

The EPA difference is 30 miles. The Y will charge a lot faster at 16A.

The Y will likely have similar reliability as the Model 3. The X is one of the lowest rate cars on consumer reports for reliability.

The current X is likely near end of life. The Y is new. The Y will likely hold resale value better not only in dollars but also as a percent of purchase price. I would consider an X today with kids at home. For a couple concerned with truw cost per year it's not a particularly good value.

EPA difference is actually 36 miles.
Slower charge, sure. It's a bigger battery that can pull harder, go longer, carry more, and drive faster.
You can fix charging faster than 16A. Good luck fixing the pulling harder, going longer , carry more or driving faster.
Even at the super charger, I actually prefer it not charge at its peak rate.
It's just that much harder on the batteries and the 5-10 minutes it saves is not worth it.

Model 3 is having plenty of issues. Ball Joints, Cracked Roof, Trunk Leaks, Ripped off under liner, Sand collecting.
It's really hard to say at this stage due to the volume difference and age difference of the fleet.
None of the Tesla's are really a good value. I had a Model 3. A Model X is better built.
Model 3/Y are "cost cutting" versions of the S/X, and it shows.

I'd also like to see battery degradation rate comparisons.

Also I use my X in snow country. The Model 3 (with snows) is a joke in comparison to the Model X.
I think it could be fixed in software with a "snow mode", but they have not as yet.
Both cars are biased toward the more efficient motor. That is in the rear for the 3/Y and the front for the S/X.
It makes a huge difference in the snow. The new customizable track mode *might* allow you to customize a reasonable (efficient) "snow" mode. Not sure. For deep snow being able to raise the vehicle does come in handy now and then.
I used to own a 2017 Jeep GC Summit. Extremely quiet (more than any Tesla) great in the snow, towing, and air suspension came in handy for the same reasons. The Model X fills all my "SUV" needs better than the Jeep did (except noise, Jeep was still quieter). The Model 3/Y no way. Long trips were mind numbing in the 3.

Since there are reliability issues with all Tesla's I sleep way better with unlimited mile warranty on the battery and motors for 8 years.
And the extended warranty to 100K miles 8 years. Which I DID purchase. That will help in resale as well.

Oh, I wish the Model X I could close the windows from the phone, like the 3/Y can.

I hope the entire lineup improves over time and not too much cost cutting. Like deleting Home Link, lack of insulation etc.
My guess is Plaid will have a new interior and it will Wow the industry and is the reason it's taking longer than planned.
It's really hard to top the Model S/X.

 

[ElectricIAC]

Cool data. What app/program gets you this? Nothing like this for my Volt.

Arrived with what? about 15% charge left? And did loose altitude over the whole trip, return trip would take more energy on same path. Still for the speed got really good range.

Teslafi. And no, as you can see, there was some elevation drop initially then significant gain and towards the end another elevation drop.

Average speed was a little bit deceiving as you do drive through a few towns but the majority of the trip was spent in the 65-75 zone. Initial estimate said we would get there with 6%, arrived with 14%.

 

[ElectricIAC]

The EPA difference is 30 miles. The Y will charge a lot faster at 16A.

The Y will likely have similar reliability as the Model 3. The X is one of the lowest rate cars on consumer reports for reliability.

The current X is likely near end of life. The Y is new. The Y will likely hold resale value better not only in dollars but also as a percent of purchase price. I would consider an X today with kids at home. For a couple concerned with truw cost per year it's not a particularly good value.

We went over the numbers when making the final decision on X vs Y and decided that if I could acquire a new/demo X for the price of a PYD there was no further discussion needed. Haven't regretted our X at all.