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With the Cybertruck unveiled where will the Model 3 go in terms of specs.

Discussion in 'Model 3' started by ChemEJon, Nov 22, 2019.

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What do you think will happen to the M3 pricing when the Cybertruck comes out

  1. Additional features (same price point)

  2. Decrease in price (minor feature upgrade, nothing game changing)

  3. Both

  4. Neither

Results are only viewable after voting.
  1. ChemEJon

    ChemEJon Member

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    Now with the Cybertruck unveiled where will the Model 3 go in terms of specs.

    Before incentives, the Cybertruck with dual motors is listed at $49,900 with a 300+ mile range and <4.5s 0-60, given these specs.

    1. Probably a 100 kwh battery if not more
    2. M3 Performance tier power if not better to achieve those 0-60's with 35 inch wheels and the weight.
    3. Higher initial production costs of a new release vehicle
    4. Air suspension
    Considering this price point and the LR AWD M3 priced currently at $48,490, its safe to say that the M3's price will significantly drop or features will increase.

    I know this is 2 years out and 3 years out for the plaid configuration, but I cant help and think that as the release date nears the M3 will have these at the Performance tier price point.

    1. Possible Plaid (if space is not a limitation) or dropping 0-60 times to MS Performance
    2. 500+ mi range(if space is not a limitation)
    3. Air suspension
     
    • Disagree x 2
  2. jjrandorin

    jjrandorin Another BMW convert

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    they are completely (and I mean COMPLETELY) different markets, so the performance of the truck wont have anything to do with the price of a model 3. If the model 3 price drops it will be because, by that time, there may be decent competition from other car manufacturers. I believe tesla has a good head start in the battery department, though.

    Look at the recently announced Ford Mach -E. If you order the top trim, it comes with a 100k battery and is still significantly slower than a model 3P, AND has an "estimated" range that is the same as a SR+. If you order one of the trims with the estimated approximately 300 mile range, its significantly slower than the LR Model 3.

    Its a bunch of compromises and you cant get one that matches up feature for feature with a model 3. I expect this to be the case across most of these MFRs first real EVs.

    To answer your question, I suspect the "next" model 3 will have 50-100 miles more range, and likely be faster because of more / denser battery cells. I expect them to put in a HUD in the model 3, and possibly have an air suspension option on the top trim version. I dont think either of those changes will be because of the truck however.
     
    • Like x 5
  3. afadeev

    afadeev Member

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    Model 3 has instantly become more elegant and better looking!
    That's about it.
     
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  4. holmgang

    holmgang Member

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    I dont see how the 2 relates at all. The dont compete at all for the same buyers. They cant saddle up the 3's price (appreciably) to fund the C's initial costs. There's really no translatable/shareable parts for the C to help the 3.... i mean maybe maybe some discount in the supply chain, but in a second-order effect at best.
     
    • Like x 1
  5. ecarfan

    ecarfan Well-Known Member

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    Those two vehicles are in a completely different class: the Model 3 is a mid-size sedan and the Cybertruck is...nothing like a sedan. ;)

    Moderator note: let’s keep this thread on topic and not post critiques of the Cybertruck, suggestions for how it could be better, opinions on styling, etc. The topic is stated in the thread title. Thank you.
     
    • Like x 1
  6. JayNJ

    JayNJ Member

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    Those price points for the truck are 2-3 years away. Model 3 will probably drop in price over time.
     
  7. SD_Engnr

    SD_Engnr Active Member

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    I think the Model 3 pricing will be independent of the eventual truck roll out. These are 2 completely different vehicles in terms of use, spec's and especially style. Spec's and pricing be damned, that "truck" is fugly.
     
  8. AlanSubie4Life

    AlanSubie4Life Efficiency Obsessed Member

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    For the truck to hit those price points with the mammoth battery (something like 250kWh for the big one), it is going to mean dramatic battery price decreases, so that will push down Model 3 prices. That would be the big impact I would think.
     
    • Like x 2
  9. Knightshade

    Knightshade Well-Known Member

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    #9 Knightshade, Nov 22, 2019
    Last edited: Nov 22, 2019
    Folks are also forgetting the truck is likely MUCH cheaper to actually manufacture.

    Stainless steel, mostly flat, design.

    So- no paint shop. Which was a cause of a LOT of cost and woes in the Model 3 ramp.

    Also no complex machines to shape body panels with a lot of curves like on the 3/Y either.

    Some interesting stuff on the engineering in the truck here-
    https://www.motortrend.com/news/tesla-cybertruck-electric-pickup-engineering-manufacturing/
     
    • Informative x 1
    • Like x 1
  10. SD_Engnr

    SD_Engnr Active Member

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    That's possible, unless Tesla want to keep showing profitability.


    I can see why folks would think in those ways, but:

    Stainless steel requires careful handling, and finishing. Tooling marks show up fairly easy on SS. Also, without a coat of paint, the SS finish grain will need to be consistently oriented so that it matches the other panels. Or not. I guess if people like this design, they will care less about the raw SS panels matching one another.

    The same machines are required to process the panels. It's the stamping dies that should be easier to keep within tolerance compared to the Model 3.
     
    • Informative x 1
  11. ezevphl

    ezevphl Member

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    I can't imagine a top of the line 3 having a much lower range and being slower than a truck.. at a similar price point. So the 3 will probably be cheaper or faster before long. Maybe the 2022 Model 3 will be 370 mile range and 2.8s acceleration.
     
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  12. Knightshade

    Knightshade Well-Known Member

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    From the link I posted-

    It also mentioned the paint shop alone was a 200 million dollar cost to Tesla- now $0 for the truck.
     
  13. acarney

    acarney Active Member

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    I would expect some type of price decrease by 2021. Probably like SR+ starting at $36,000 and AWD LR starting at $42,000 or something. That gives a little room to slot the Model Y in above those by $1,000 or $1,500 and then still have a little room between the truck. I figure base battery will be 300 mi on the SR and 400 mi on the AWD with possibly a 500 mi option on the AWD or standard with the Performance model (if it can fit). I suspect Model Y specs will fall in line too with that and price will be adjusted some. I doubt we'll see air suspension and stuff like that showing up on the car. That really does seem to be a utility for the truck (probably the only way to get that kind of efficiency while also allowing for a 16" ground clearance and then of course the side benefit of having access to compressed air). I doubt we'll see any other major feature upgrades to the model 3/Y. I wouldn't be surprised if power stayed about the same, or a few horsepower above whatever else is on the market at the same range and price point. I figure SR will hover around 300 to 325hp and LR AWD will be 415 to 425hp.

    I really think the major factors for the 3 and Y will be range and price. Obviously it looks like Tesla is working on a pretty large upgrade to battery cells or packs if both roadster and the truck have 500 mile range options. Roadster doesn't look THAT much larger then a 3 (and might actually be smaller) and the truck has got to be more on the order of X weight. So I wouldn't be surprised if 3/Y ended up with 75kWh, ~110kWh, and 150kWh. That seems to scale fairly well with the current range differences with 3. This would be a massive improvement for them if they could get it in the same physical package, but to me is the likely evolution for those two models.

    I think a 300 mile range is probably as much range as anyone needs when having access to daily charging (at home or at work). This still allows good road trip ability and pretty good penetration into remote areas like coastlines or national parks/winter retreats that might not have superchargers in a linear point to point configuration. (Meaning you need to take enough power with you to get into the remote area and then back out to the supercharger before heading home) Charging to 75% would give roughly 200 real world highway speed miles which means you're good for about 75 miles into a forest/mountain and then back out with some buffer for elevation or comfort. That'll cover a huge amount of cases around the US and then continues to get better as superchargers come online.

    I think 400 mile range probably is going to be what lets non-daily charging people comfortably feel like they have a "normal" car. At 85% you're getting 340 miles, which works out to about 60 or so miles a day for the work drive and running the kids to school or something. Then you swing by a supercharger on Friday night while you do some shopping or go out to eat or whatever, and you're charged up again. You've got a buffer of about 20 to 30 miles to burn on the weekend. If you're only driving ~30 miles a day during the week, then you can charge to a lower SOC to reduce the charge time and be more gentle on the battery, or shift some more miles to the weekend (say 150 miles). The 20 to 30 mile daily driving would work well for this model in colder areas. Either way, a 400 mile rated battery really opens up a family that then relies on a supercharger for every 4 to 7 day charging and mimics the gas model fairly well. (if you're charging every four days maybe it's a 20 minute stop, if every seven days, maybe it's an hour while you're buying groceries, etc)
     
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  14. acarney

    acarney Active Member

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    I don't think we'll see the 3 get upgraded that much. That room will probably be for the Model S. Physics is only going to let you get so fast with basic rubber on the ground as your main acceleration point. I do see the Model 3 being slower then a truck, but only the $70k Performance truck. Right now 3 is faster then the Base Truck and the AWD 3 is just as fast as the AWD truck, and maybe that will see a 0.2 second improvement or whatever. I think the big point for the 3 is going to be cost and accessibility to the population at large. It's a decent sized car that still is pretty small when thinking about parking spots and garages and such. It goes great against entry level BMW/MB/Audi. If they can bring the SR+ down to like $36k you're just a couple thousand dollars more then the entry level Mercs and if Tesla is able to keep refining the build quality and maybe introduces some very small cabin upgrades (replace some plastic with metal, etc, very minor things) then they'll essentially be on the same ground as those cars. Right now the Model 3 should absolutely be considered for anyone looking at entry level BMW/MB/Audi, but it does require some thoughts to the budget, you make the car $2,000 to $3,000 more expensive and now you're in the same range as them, especially when factoring in operational costs. The 3 isn't the halo car for Tesla, it's the mass appeal car. It needs to be very solid, sporty within it's market segment, and priced where you feel stupid for not getting it. The Y is basically the same, but just carries that "cross-over" price premium. Then the S is their halo car with absurd performance but in an every day driver. The Roadster is their show off supercar (think Ferrari or Lamborghini level). The truck is off on it's own and covers an affordable truck, a solid mid range performer, and something besting the Raptor, etc. The Model X is sort of the odd one out now, and I wouldn't be surprised if we saw that get a redesign down the road and possibly lose it's falcon wing doors. They'll probably still keep a "full size" SUV for 7 or 8 passengers but I suspect they'll try to reduce complex parts because I figure manufacturing volume will drop a lot on it as the Y comes out for that higher driving profile and the truck comes out for the towing ability. The X basically then just has large families going for it...
     
  15. TomT

    TomT Technical Maven

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    Apples and guavas!
     
  16. Dan203

    Dan203 Active Member

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    The specs on the Cybertruck are perplexing for the price. All I can figure is the money they save in stamping body panels and applying paint must be a LOT.
     
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  17. Knightshade

    Knightshade Well-Known Member

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    There's also speculation it's priced based on what Tesla expects battery costs will be in 2 years when they actually start producing the thing
     
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  18. ebmcs03

    ebmcs03 Active Member

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    Price drop. It’s always a price drop. That’s all that happens.
     
  19. P3dStealth

    P3dStealth Member

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    It's like Tesla fans have never seen a truck. This is getting to be like apple fans.

    The f150 starts at $28,495. The raptor is $53,205. This means you get it for less because you don't pay MSRP on fords. Teslas pricing is not amazing. You could have always had a truck instead of your model 3. It's like you are all just discovering this now.

    Also there are pickup trucks cheaper than cars and SUVs made by the same companies everywhere. They don't compete with each other in class at all. A person shopping for a car doesn't look at a truck. The raptor is faster than a lot of cars and SUVs. Doesn't mean the slower car price goes down.
     
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  20. holmgang

    holmgang Member

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    guavas are better. everybody knows that.
     

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