Wondering if a solar roof would work in my situation?

[Nuone]

Hello everyone. Wondering if people in the know could comment on our situation.
Tesla's solar roof can generate 59% of our yearly electric energy requirement. Price tag for the solar roof and 3 power wall units $70K after potential $30K discount. Average monthly electric bill $360 ($175 of which is delivery/infrastructure charge). Our Model S and X charged at home.

Potential saving per month is about $111. At this rate it would take 53 years to just recoup the cost of the system. Are we missing something?

 

[jjrandorin]

Hello everyone. Wondering if people in the know could comment on our situation.
Tesla's solar roof can generate 59% of our yearly electric energy requirement. Price tag for the solar roof and 3 power wall units $70K after potential $30K discount. Average monthly electric bill $360 ($175 of which is delivery/infrastructure charge). Our Model S and X charged at home.

Potential saving per month is about $111. At this rate it would take 53 years to just recoup the cost of the system. Are we missing something?

Why solar roof instead of panels? Why are you only able to offset 59% of your electricity usage? Are you saying that $175 of your bill cant be offset?

(moderator note)

Changed thread title to more reflect what I believe is being asked. "does it make sense" did not make sense to me as a description of what the thread was about / asking).

 

[getakey]

do you have TOU rates?
Personally, I do not include the PWs in my ROI. I bought them for backup and that is their primary mission. Also, if you need a new roof and are getting solar roof, I would subtract the cost of getting a new conventional roof from you costs

 

[Nuone]

jjeandorin: 59% was what Tesla provided to us. We are in Northeast.

getakey: thank you!

 

[wjgjr]

do you have TOU rates?
Personally, I do not include the PWs in my ROI. I bought them for backup and that is their primary mission. Also, if you need a new roof and are getting solar roof, I would subtract the cost of getting a new conventional roof from you costs

Agreed that PWs should be excluded as should the cost of a new roof. (And if you don't need a new roof, it is almost certain solar roof will not be competitive with panels.)

Even with all of that, with power costs typically cheaper out east and often lower performance (weather, and in your case being a bit more north) the math might not work out great for the roof, or even for panels, depending on what the state incentives are.

 

[Nuone]

Agreed that PWs should be excluded as should the cost of a new roof. (And if you don't need a new roof, it is almost certain solar roof will not be competitive with panels.)

Even with all of that, with power costs typically cheaper out east and often lower performance (weather, and in your case being a bit more north) the math might not work out great for the roof, or even for panels, depending on what the state incentives

The final cost, if new roof and 3 PWs are excluded, will be around $35K. The new roof and PW will be essentially reimbursed by combination of state insentive and federal tax credit.

 

[h2ofun]

The final cost, if new roof and 3 PWs are excluded, will be around $35K. The new roof and PW will be essentially reimbursed by combination of state insentive and federal tax credit.

My opinion is if you have no TOU, none of this stuff has a ROI that any smart investor would do!! Yea, folks love to play what if with the numbers and of course, one can always claim to get the result they want. And for folks that say they spent the big bucks for backup is just nuts!! Since the outage 3 years ago in Calif., we have basically had zero! And even if we do, a 500 dollar generator hooked to the refrig to protect a few hundred dollars worth of food, is this even worth it.

So if you have money to spend, instead of leaving for your kids, this stuff is like one who has a tesla and is saying see me. But, it comes with a whole lot of other issues as one sees all the time with posts here.

Each persons ROI is totally different.

 

[noworriesinmd]

I live in the North East. I'm getting a Solar Roof installed.
Only you can answer if the cost is worth it.

Here are my calculations.
My cost is approximately 78k
To replace my roof (which I need to do; I literally have a bucket sitting a room), is 20k. That brings me to 58k
The Federal tax credit is approximately 17k. That brings me to 41k
The state will give me another 1k for a Solar tax credit. That brings me to 40k
The state will give me 5k for purchasing 3 power walls. That brings me to 35k

The total cost of Solar is 35k
Everything I'm calculating is on a 10-year time span
My monthly energy bill is 300/month. Tesla says I will reduce my bill by 30% or ~$100 per month.
That means I'm prepaying my energy bill by $12k

I'm now down to 23k for solar
Each year I will sell ~6 SREC's at $70*6 = $420 /yr or $4.2k in 10 years.
I'm down to 18.2k

3 power walls will provide 1 day of battery backup.
To purchase this would be: Generator: ~ 5k and installation ~5k = 10k
I'm down to $8.2k

Then you need to ask yourself, "Am I ok with paying $8.2k, financed over 10 years at a very low-interest rate: paid for my Tesla stock appreciation and Bitcoin?"...My answer is YES. I have more than the above invested in altcoins and tesla because I believe they are the future.

We plan to stay at our house for at least 25 years (warranty period for the roof).
There is a 90% chance we will recoup the cost if we ever sell our house.
It makes our house unique at least for the first 10 years. (more companies will offer solar tiles and I'm proud we are at the vanguard of this)


My pluses
We get better tiles than architectural shingles
We get battery backup when the power goes out because we have "overhead" lines.
We lower our electricity bill (we are pre-paying)
We have upgraded our 100-year-old home with something more modern, those go with a lot of the changes we've made internally. This house will last another 100 years. Plus it is in a desirable neighborhood.

 

[Nuone]

I live in the North East. I'm getting a Solar Roof installed.
Only you can answer if the cost is worth it.

Here are my calculations.
My cost is approximately 78k
To replace my roof (which I need to do; I literally have a bucket sitting a room), is 20k. That brings me to 58k
The Federal tax credit is approximately 17k. That brings me to 41k
The state will give me another 1k for a Solar tax credit. That brings me to 40k
The state will give me 5k for purchasing 3 power walls. That brings me to 35k

The total cost of Solar is 35k
Everything I'm calculating is on a 10-year time span
My monthly energy bill is 300/month. Tesla says I will reduce my bill by 30% or ~$100 per month.
That means I'm prepaying my energy bill by $12k

I'm now down to 23k for solar
Each year I will sell ~6 SREC's at $70*6 = $420 /yr or $4.2k in 10 years.
I'm down to 18.2k

3 power walls will provide 1 day of battery backup.
To purchase this would be: Generator: ~ 5k and installation ~5k = 10k
I'm down to $8.2k

Then you need to ask yourself, "Am I ok with paying $8.2k, financed over 10 years at a very low-interest rate: paid for my Tesla stock appreciation and Bitcoin?"...My answer is YES. I have more than the above invested in altcoins and tesla because I believe they are the future.

We plan to stay at our house for at least 25 years (warranty period for the roof).
There is a 90% chance we will recoup the cost if we ever sell our house.
It makes our house unique at least for the first 10 years. (more companies will offer solar tiles and I'm proud we are at the vanguard of this)


My pluses
We get better tiles than architectural shingles
We get battery backup when the power goes out because we have "overhead" lines.
We lower our electricity bill (we are pre-paying)
We have upgraded our 100-year-old home with something more modern, those go with a lot of the changes we've made internally. This house will last another 100 years. Plus it is in a desirable neighborhood.

Thanks

 

[wjgjr]

I live in the North East. I'm getting a Solar Roof installed.
Only you can answer if the cost is worth it.

Here are my calculations.
My cost is approximately 78k
To replace my roof (which I need to do; I literally have a bucket sitting a room), is 20k. That brings me to 58k
The Federal tax credit is approximately 17k. That brings me to 41k
The state will give me another 1k for a Solar tax credit. That brings me to 40k
The state will give me 5k for purchasing 3 power walls. That brings me to 35k

The total cost of Solar is 35k
Everything I'm calculating is on a 10-year time span
My monthly energy bill is 300/month. Tesla says I will reduce my bill by 30% or ~$100 per month.
That means I'm prepaying my energy bill by $12k

I'm now down to 23k for solar
Each year I will sell ~6 SREC's at $70*6 = $420 /yr or $4.2k in 10 years.
I'm down to 18.2k

3 power walls will provide 1 day of battery backup.
To purchase this would be: Generator: ~ 5k and installation ~5k = 10k
I'm down to $8.2k

Then you need to ask yourself, "Am I ok with paying $8.2k, financed over 10 years at a very low-interest rate: paid for my Tesla stock appreciation and Bitcoin?"...My answer is YES. I have more than the above invested in altcoins and tesla because I believe they are the future.

We plan to stay at our house for at least 25 years (warranty period for the roof).
There is a 90% chance we will recoup the cost if we ever sell our house.
It makes our house unique at least for the first 10 years. (more companies will offer solar tiles and I'm proud we are at the vanguard of this)


My pluses
We get better tiles than architectural shingles
We get battery backup when the power goes out because we have "overhead" lines.
We lower our electricity bill (we are pre-paying)
We have upgraded our 100-year-old home with something more modern, those go with a lot of the changes we've made internally. This house will last another 100 years. Plus it is in a desirable neighborhood.

Just a couple thoughts on this - I would continue calculate PWs separately, mainly because it is still an option to do re-roof + solar panels + PWs, instead of solar roof + PWs. In MD, with the state solar incentives should be enough to justify the roof or panels on their own, and then PWs can be added for their backup benefit (but, with MD generally not having TOU rates, their value is currently for backups.)

The other thing is specific to MD (and I mentioned in the other thread as well.) Those SREC estimates are not realistic based on the current law. The 10-year value for an SREC (after fees), if it is first generated in 2021, will almost certainly be under $400. If it is first generated in 2022, that drops to $350. So the 6 SRECs you mentioned will likely be closer to $2k or less given an install happening late in 2021 and PTO perhaps not until close to the new year.