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Would you buy again FSD today?

Oh and hilariously, look at what happens if you go through purchasing flow for a new Tesla -


Basic Autopilot​

Included with every Tesla, Autopilot enables your car to steer, accelerate and brake automatically for other vehicles and pedestrians within its lane. Advanced safety and convenience features are designed to assist you with the most burdensome parts of driving, alongside driver assistance features such as emergency braking, collision warning and blind-spot monitoring.

Enhanced Autopilot​

$6,000

  1. Navigate on Autopilot
  2. Auto Lane Change
  3. Autopark
  4. Summon
  5. Smart Summon
Click -> "Feature Details"

Navigate on Autopilot​

Automatic driving from highway on-ramp to off-ramp includes automatic lane changes, Traffic-Aware Cruise Control with complete stopping and re-engagement, Autosteer, and overtaking slow cars in your lane.

0 mention of BETA when they are asking for $6k

OR scrolling down to FSD

Full Self-Driving Capability​

$12,000

  1. All functionality of Basic Autopilot and Enhanced Autopilot
  2. Traffic Light and Stop Sign Control

Coming Soon​

  1. Autosteer on city streets
The currently enabled features require active driver supervision and do not make the vehicle autonomous. The activation and use of these features are dependent on achieving reliability far in excess of human drivers as demonstrated by billions of miles of experience, as well as regulatory approval, which may take longer in some jurisdictions. As these self-driving features evolve, your car will be continuously upgraded through over-the-air software updates.

Click -> "Feature Details"

Traffic Light and Stop Sign Control​

Traffic Light and Stop Sign Control is designed to slowdown and stop for visible traffic lights or stop signs that are detected when Traffic-Aware Cruise Control or Autosteer is engaged.

AGAIN 0 mention of BETA when they are asking for $6k


So between marketing page, sales page and owners manual, only 1 of 3 mention the word beta..

And "Autopilot enables your car to steer, accelerate and brake automatically for other vehicles and pedestrians within its lane"
BUT also "Autosteer is intended for use on controlled-access highways with a fully attentive driver. When using Autosteer, hold the steering wheel and be mindful of road conditions and surrounding traffic. Do not use Autosteer in construction zones, or in areas where bicyclists or pedestrians may be present."

So it brakes for pedestrians OR you must not use it near pedestrians?
$6,000 is a bunch for traffic light and stop sign control. Oh and yeah, all the good stuff promised to come. Hey, how about paying for it AFTER its here?
 
Exactly

And I think they are really cruising for a serious regulatory crackdown from both consumer safety & fair trade / false advertisement angles
1) regulatory framework under Dem WH

2) tide turning as more people become more skeptical of Tesla FSD claims/abilities (even in this forum the last 12-18 months has been a strong shift)

3) other automakers attain EV competence & competent highway driver assistance

4) almost certain purposeful ambiguity of what/if product they are selling exists / is PROD / is beta

5) the revolving door of both TSLA legal & AI leadership (note ANOTHER head of legal just left recently, Bloomberg reports "Tesla has had at least four top lawyers since its last full-time general counsel Jonathan Chang departed in December 2019."
To ME looks like FSD department knows the targets are unattainable and the legal department is concerned about the tight rope being walked legally.

6) basically having alpha software driving 100K+ cars cruising around public roads
 
I used EAP all the time in 2019. It took me several weeks to get used to it. Then I got FSD to upgrade the hardware, and then the FSD Beta that I really wanted. I use it all the time. It took some time to get used to it. But now I use it over 90% the time, I've learned how. Of course I'd get it again, though p'd off at not being able to transfer it to a new car.

Best tips: use the speed scroll wheel all the time to set ideal speed. Stay watchful and in control of your horse. Not perfect, but works well enough for me. Very happy with my FSD equipped late 2018 single motor Model 3. Hate to lose warranty end 2022, but see no reason to sell this car.
 
A good theory, but if you compared the # of teslas vs # of cars on the road, you probably would not have said this.

Please elaborate. I do not think Teslas are going to replace all cars.

How many taxis currently operate in your city? How many Teslas? What is your expected density of Teslas required for service, and how much would each Tesla bring in under this scenario? How much of a cut is Tesla going to take? What are the barriers to entry for other Tesla owners? Competing taxi/rideshare/robotaxi companies?

These are the type of questions you have to think about when determining a return on investment in a robotaxi business. I still contend that an individually owned Tesla robotaxi will be unprofitable for a single owner.

Also, keep in mind that FSD is now $15k.
 
Based on my experience with software, AI, and vision recognition I fall into the camp that level 5 autonomy needed for robotaxi is not achievable with the current hardware. Realistically I don't see it possible within the next decade even with hardware changes because of the exponential difficulty of "solving" level 5 combined with legal and insurance and logistics hurdles.

My personal speculation is that Elon and higher-ups at Tesla realize this now and are stuck. They have a huge liability with FSD sales and can't really just cancel selling it at this point. I believe they continue to raise the price as a means to safely discourage sales and wait for the outstanding vehicles with FSD to die out. I could be wrong and I'll be the first to admit it if I am proven wrong but at this point I see FSD as a liability not an asset for Tesla.
 

2101Guy

Breaker of Ignore Buttons
Jan 6, 2020
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7,254
USA
Based on my experience with software, AI, and vision recognition I fall into the camp that level 5 autonomy needed for robotaxi is not achievable with the current hardware. Realistically I don't see it possible within the next decade even with hardware changes because of the exponential difficulty of "solving" level 5 combined with legal and insurance and logistics hurdles.

My personal speculation is that Elon and higher-ups at Tesla realize this now and are stuck. They have a huge liability with FSD sales and can't really just cancel selling it at this point. I believe they continue to raise the price as a means to safely discourage sales and wait for the outstanding vehicles with FSD to die out. I could be wrong and I'll be the first to admit it if I am proven wrong but at this point I see FSD as a liability not an asset for Tesla.
 
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Based on my experience with software, AI, and vision recognition I fall into the camp that level 5 autonomy needed for robotaxi is not achievable with the current hardware. Realistically I don't see it possible within the next decade even with hardware changes because of the exponential difficulty of "solving" level 5 combined with legal and insurance and logistics hurdles.

My personal speculation is that Elon and higher-ups at Tesla realize this now and are stuck. They have a huge liability with FSD sales and can't really just cancel selling it at this point. I believe they continue to raise the price as a means to safely discourage sales and wait for the outstanding vehicles with FSD to die out. I could be wrong and I'll be the first to admit it if I am proven wrong but at this point I see FSD as a liability not an asset for Tesla.
Worst case, FSD cannot be achieved with current hardware, either L2 or L4. Tesla has a few options. One, upgrade everyone's hardware (MCU and cameras) - this includes adding new cameras (the B-pillars can have another camera added looking directly to the side for aiding left and right turns). This would cost Tesla some number of dollars which would be drawn from FSD sales, and only available to those who fully purchased FSD. Two, redesign the cars with totally new sensor suites and camera locations that cannot be retrofitted to existing cars. This would require refunding all or a portion of FSD purchases, which will be tricky as a portion of FSD purchases include features which are currently functional with existing hardware.

Tesla has the dollars in unrealized gains to refund FSD purchases, at least in part, due to GAAP financing procedures, without affecting revenue/profit at all.

"In accordance with Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (GAAP), Tesla can only register a portion of the purchase price as income from FSD, while the remainder of the balance sheet is classified as a liability called Deferred Revenue. In Tesla's case, FSD is not fully deployed, so the company still has to provide it to customers who bought it. As soon as Tesla delivers its promise, it will remove this obligation from its balance sheet, and recognize this amount as income."
 
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Resist

Active Member
Mar 24, 2019
1,212
676
California
Based on my experience with software, AI, and vision recognition I fall into the camp that level 5 autonomy needed for robotaxi is not achievable with the current hardware. Realistically I don't see it possible within the next decade even with hardware changes because of the exponential difficulty of "solving" level 5 combined with legal and insurance and logistics hurdles.

My personal speculation is that Elon and higher-ups at Tesla realize this now and are stuck. They have a huge liability with FSD sales and can't really just cancel selling it at this point. I believe they continue to raise the price as a means to safely discourage sales and wait for the outstanding vehicles with FSD to die out. I could be wrong and I'll be the first to admit it if I am proven wrong but at this point I see FSD as a liability not an asset for Tesla.
This post makes the most sense yet!

Yet, Elon fanboys won't buy it. They gobble up everything he says as fact, when the reality is that Elon has lied many times. That's not to say he isn't a smart guy, he is but really needs to stop making timelines that never happen. I get so tired of hearing him say FSD will be feature complete by the end of this year and then it doesn't happen. Or when people on twitter ask him to add a feature and he says they will do it and it never happens, like giving an option to turn off the blinking headlights with Sentry Mode.

I can say this, if I ever buy another Tesla which seem doubtful with the continuous price increases, I wouldn't buy FSD or EAP even if Tesla decided not to include Autopilot. Now if those features become more reasonable in price, then I would consider it. But I'm sorry $15,000 for FSD and $6,000 for EAP is insanity!
 

Resist

Active Member
Mar 24, 2019
1,212
676
California
In 2018 when I bought my Model 3 I paid $5,000 for EAP, only because I wanted to experience a car that drives itself on the highway. It was super scary at first as my car followed the curves on the highway, but I was amazed. Then when Tesla offered FSD for $2,000 I bought it because I felt any hardware upgrade would make it worth the cost, and I was right as they upgraded the board, considering the price and labor to install it so made it worth it. But now that Autopilot is standard, I see no point in ever getting FSD or EAP and certainly not at their inflated price points. Plus there is always the option to try out FSD for a month on the subscription service, to see how things have come along.
 

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