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Would you consider a Bolt?
- Thread starter Autonerd
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- Electric Vehicles
LargeHamCollider
Battery cells != scalable
2. Is new to me if true, I don't see it at the supplied link, anyone have a source that doesn't require searching 20+ pages? (did I mention feeling lazy?)
"Massive" is a bit ambiguous, I'd guess it will underperform EPA rating at 75mph by 20%.
JohnSnowNW
Active Member
I agree. The currentcharging infrastructure concerns will fade away with time.
The issue being that people will make purchasing decisions based on the current state, or even perceived state...but of course GM has stated they don't plan to aid its development.
SageBrush
REJECT Fascism
I guess you didn't read the Idaho National Lab reports I provided.
In any case, here's the EPA high speed test graph:
It does hit an 80 mph peak. Notice how in 10 minutes, the really only flat portions are around 60-65 mph and all the higher speed stuff is very peaky? Out of 600 seconds, only about 240 seconds are even flat-ish? if you extrapolate that to an hour's worth of driving, that's like 24 minutes spent at 65 mph, averaging 48 mph, and a lot of start stop at the end of the trip for 12 minutes. This is more like the profile of commuting for 10 minutes where one hits the highway, in traffic, for 3-4 minutes and spends most of the time in suburban and urban traffic.
The highway test schedule:
Doesn't break 60 mph and spends a lot of time under 50 mph. None of these driving schedules look like what happens when one makes back to back Supercharger jumps. We drive about 1-5 miles at low to moderate speeds to get to the freeway, then drive 120-140 miles at 65-80 mph, and then drive 1-5 miles at low to moderate speeds to the Supercharger. Out of 140-150 miles, we spend well over 90% of it at 65 mph or much higher.
This gives the illusion that the Tesla Model S is an inefficient BEV while in reality, it is one of the most efficient BEVs at 70+mph, beating out the i3, Leaf, Ford Focus EV, 2011 Volt, Fusion Energi and so forth. Matter of fact, at a steady 45 mph, the least efficient Model S (85 kWh, rear wheel drive) had lower consumption than the 2011 Volt, Leaf, Ford Focus Electric, and so forth.
If the Model S 85 kWh can beat these cars and the Model 3 has far lower CDa and lower weight, it should be even better.
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All new cars have problems initially. Some are worse than others. The general rule of thumb is the more radical the changes to the car, the more problems it's going to have initially.
Tesla will need more service centers as the Model 3 rolls out.
SageBrush
REJECT Fascism
Yep.
It would be interesting to to figure out the root mean square(s) of the 'high speed' test. In case I am using the term incorrectly, I mean the square root of the weighted mean of the squared velocities.
From hanging out here for most of the last year and reading posts about public chargers I've learned quite a bit that isn't obvious at first blush. Most of the public chargers are installed by businesses and other organizations that want to provide EV charging. These are located wherever the business or organization are located and not situated to be convenient for long distance travelers. Most of the time only one charger is provided, though places like hotels might have a few.
Maintenance at these stations is often poor and at minimum inconsistent. Many times businesses put in chargers hoping to make a few extra bucks charging for EV charging, but when the business is less than they expected, they lose interest and let the charger fall into disrepair. If you got to plugshare.com (PlugShare) and look at the high power chargers around and area, you will find many of them have complaints about being broken or other problems.
Lastly most of the CCS and CHAdeMO chargers out there provide less than the rated power. To have a high power EV charger, it requires a separate tap on the neighborhood transformer with it's own break box and meter. Tesla does this with superchargers. Each superchager has sort of a mini-sub station next to it. Businesses and organizations installing CCS or CHAdeMO chargers only supply whatever they can through their existing breaker box and meter, which is usually much less than full spec power. The number of CCS and CHAdeMO chargers in the world that are at full rated power is probably less than 10%.
Compare all this to the supercharger network. Tesla has carefully planned the network to be as convenient as possible for people traveling between cities. All supercharger installations have multiple stalls for charging. The power at superchargers varies a little, but that's only because some are older than others. I haven't heard of a supercharger that didn't provide it's rated power output. And Tesla is very quick to repair superchargers that go down. I have never heard of a story of a supercharger going down and no being repaired quickly unless there was some outside circumstance preventing it such as the one that flooded near Houston or the one shut down in Norway after the fire.
All car companies except Tesla have been saying the market will provide the chargers, but so far the roll out of non-Tesla chargers has been poor. I don't see any indication this will change anytime soon.
SageBrush
REJECT Fascism
I was looking at the Charging map available on the Tesla website and noticed that a fair number (I presume of so-called 'destination chargers') of sites are for patrons only. This is probably true of the CCS map also, perhaps even more so. Second, the CCS network has grown haphazardly, rather than planned with a 200 mile minimum range EV base.
Along with the other problems you point out, the reality of the CCS network compared to the Tesla one appears quite inferior overall although regional networks will be a ymmv.
This is the world of today's 24 kW metro area charging stations. The interstate Supercharger-style CCS stations are relatively uncommon today because the existing CCS cars have ranges too short for interstate driving. This will change once larger range cars start showing up. They will need places to charge and the market or government will provide them. It will be more chaotic and disorganized than Tesla's central planning model but it will happen.
stopcrazypp
Well-Known Member
You should read the article all the way to the end.
Starting in 2012, no such fudging is allowed:
"Until the 2012 model year, however, automakers may use results from the two old fuel-economy cycles and then plug those numbers into an elaborate equation developed by the EPA that approximates the new five-cycle procedure. For 2012, all fuel-economy figures will derive from the results of the 43.9 miles covered by the five tests."
The Truth About EPA City / Highway MPG Estimates - Feature
This was the reason why the Model S got 265 miles of range (and not the 320 miles it would have gotten under the old rating system).
I guess its a chicken and egg scenario for public charging. People don't see a business model for public charging stations along highways (EV "gas" stations as it were) since there aren't enough EVs to reach critical mass. People don't buy the EVs because there isn't a public charging network to support them.
Tesla decided to have both the chicken and the egg at the same time. They released the Model S, and at the same time started building out the supercharger network. Early adopters had to drive their Model S's as glorified commuter cars for a while, or the really adventurous went out into the wild west of RV park charging, etc for long distance trips.
I feel the Bolt will help the critical mass of EVs somewhat. It is basically the perfect daily driver and may fill that spot for folks who have secondary ICE vehicles available for long distance trips. As more manufacturers release 200 mile EVs, more and more people will buy them as local cars, and eventually someone will see a viable business model (probably here in CA first) to open a network of charging stations.
Tesla decided to have both the chicken and the egg at the same time. They released the Model S, and at the same time started building out the supercharger network. Early adopters had to drive their Model S's as glorified commuter cars for a while, or the really adventurous went out into the wild west of RV park charging, etc for long distance trips.
I feel the Bolt will help the critical mass of EVs somewhat. It is basically the perfect daily driver and may fill that spot for folks who have secondary ICE vehicles available for long distance trips. As more manufacturers release 200 mile EVs, more and more people will buy them as local cars, and eventually someone will see a viable business model (probably here in CA first) to open a network of charging stations.
I'm not seeing it. The auto manufacturers outright have said they're not interested in building infrastructure. Outside of a couple of states there's no government interest in building them. The charging station companies don't seem to care, they overcharge for what they do have, don't maintain them, and are going bankrupt.
I agree that there is little motivation for improving the network. Surprisingly, I work at very large utility company (across the country) that plans to install 5,000+ charging stations the next few years not for profit but to advance EV adoption. The problem is the vast majority of them will be slow level 2 chargers. I am trying to convince them to at least consider working with Tesla to build some superchargers if they really want to advance EV adoption since the Model 3 will be in much higher demand than any other EV for the near future. Hopefully they listen
I agree that there is little motivation for improving the network. Surprisingly, I work at very large utility company (across the country) that plans to install 5,000+ charging stations the next few years not for profit but to advance EV adoption. The problem is the vast majority of them will be slow level 2 chargers. I am trying to convince them to at least consider working with Tesla to build some superchargers if they really want to advance EV adoption since the Model 3 will be in much higher demand than any other EV for the near future. Hopefully they listen
Actually, the best thing is to install the vast majority of them as L2 AC. We need lots and lots of those. We do not need the existing CCS or CHAdeMO at all. One of the problems is going to be rapid change in the DCFC space. For L2 AC, they need to install at least 40A. Future proof is 80A.
How is that going to help promote EV adoption when the primary resistance to many people buying EVs is lack of rapid charging stations for long distance travel?
Jbailey
Member
Constant updating, supercharger network, safety, status, autopilot and above all, performance. i don't see how anybody who drives or has ever driven a Tesla could settle for a Bolt.
Those who own or truly know what driving a Tesla is like will need a lifetime supply of Prozac if they choose the Bolt. Maybe Chevrolet should provide this as an option.
Actually there is a large group of people who really look at a car as a boring appliance meant to get one from point A to point B. They really don't care about technology and performance. They do care about cost savings and the convenience of waking up with a fully charged car. They may want to drive an American car and do not even realize Tesla is an American car. I encounter people almost every day who ask me what kind of car I am driving and when I say Tesla, they ask me who makes it.
I live in a college town and frequently get unabashed thumbs up from those who seem to know what I am driving. It is a complement but it is kind of embarrassing. When I drive to my more rural work location, this does not happen....well it would if I had a jacked up, high decibel pickup with "testiculars" hanging off the back.
Those who own or truly know what driving a Tesla is like will need a lifetime supply of Prozac if they choose the Bolt. Maybe Chevrolet should provide this as an option.
Actually there is a large group of people who really look at a car as a boring appliance meant to get one from point A to point B. They really don't care about technology and performance. They do care about cost savings and the convenience of waking up with a fully charged car. They may want to drive an American car and do not even realize Tesla is an American car. I encounter people almost every day who ask me what kind of car I am driving and when I say Tesla, they ask me who makes it.
I live in a college town and frequently get unabashed thumbs up from those who seem to know what I am driving. It is a complement but it is kind of embarrassing. When I drive to my more rural work location, this does not happen....well it would if I had a jacked up, high decibel pickup with "testiculars" hanging off the back.
SageBrush
REJECT Fascism
I'm not 100% positive, but I think that this 'elaborate equation' mixes in the additional tests but does not change the 22% fudge of the HWFET test.
Addendum: This pie-chart from ANL shows the relative weighting that goes into the final highway MPG number. I cannot tell if the raw HWFET number is used but since the weight is only ~ 15% the final result variation is reduced to ~ 3.3 %.
Addendum: Here is the actual study of the pie-chart from above. Page #11 describes the current method, and I gather that the prior 22% fudge has indeed been done away with, but instead a 0.9x fudge multiplier is applied to the (weighted mean plus cold + AC + start load estimates)
One thing is certain: the final EPA result is considerably higher than what would be obtained from a warmed up engine running at a constant 48 mph. AFAIK, CAFE fuel economy uses an average of the raw HWFET and FTP results. As one example, the Gen3 Prius CAFE is ~ 69 mpg while the sticker highway is 49 mpg.
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One of the other points JohnSnowNW mentioned was that the CCS stations are largely "singular". This also is a big differentiator, and one that many folks get mixed up with (recognizing that total number of charging sites is different than the total number of charging stalls).
A site with one CCS charging stall is much less useful than a site with 6. Particularly given the relatively low power capability of the installed chargers, which means longer wait times. It also is problematic with cars of limited range, as they may have no alternative but to wait if they don't have the remaining charge left to drive some distance to the next available charger.
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