Thanks again for the comments - all are appreciated.
So I made another visit to the Tesla store, did some more research, and found out/confirmed several things:
1) You are not limited to one Federal $7,500 tax credit - you can buy multiple cars and get multiple credits. You also don't have a "holding period" to get the deduction. Once you title the car in your name and the VIN is recorded you are eligible for the rebate. So, I can buy two M3s this year and get two full $7500 tax credits. If you resell the car you don't have to return the tax credit - it's yours regardless of how long you owned the car, as long as it was titled to you, not leased.
2) I won't necessarily take a loss on my initial M3 sale. I live in NC, and my "all in cost" including transportation, state taxes and fees, is roughy $53,350. (The RWD version was $4-5K less than the AWD version and was only offered for a short time. I did order the 19"wheels. I was fortunate to get it as I prefer RWD). So, if I subtract the $7,500 tax credit my net cost on the M3LR RWD is $45,850. Given that the tax credit drops to $3,750 on January 1, I don't think it will be too hard to get $46K for my 5 week old M3 RWD LR with under 2,000 miles on it. The least expensive LR M3 is currently $54K without any upgrades beyond the Deluxe Interior and LR battery options. Compared to my "all in cost" of $45,850 that's a trade in loss of $1,560 - not bad at all. If that's what Tesla is offering, I'm even more comfortable getting $46K in a private sale.
3) jjrandorin posted that the $64K car that I'm considering isn't the same as the $78K car that Dan Neil tested for the Wall Street Journal. He's correct, but for me that's the configuration I prefer. I tried the EAP on my M3 as a trial, and found that, for me, I prefer to drive myself. So that isn't a major sacrifice for me. Nor is not have FSD on order - again I prefer to drive my car myself. Tesla also lowered the price of the Performance version by $5,000, a major advantage from my point of view. I also like the black color car, and wouldn't need/want to pay for an upgraded color. The Tesla store offered me ~$43K on trade for my M3. In NC the trade value is deducted from the purchase price of the new car you're buying, so a $43K trade is worth $44,290 (including 3% sales tax credit) against the price of the new M3 Performance.
I'm not saying that this is the thing to do for everyone, but I am seriously considering it. When I read Dan Neil's original review I was intrigued, but at $78,000 compared to my car's $50,500 list price (RWD - AWD wasn't available when I ordered) I didn't think the Performance model was worth the upgraded cost. Taking out options I don't need/want (at last now) I can get a M3 Performance that would likely outperform my prior BMW M3, add AWD that I don't currently have on my M3, and do that for about $14-15K more than I paid for a M3 RWD LR. That's quite a step up in features/performance, and about half of difference compared to what Dan Neil's version of the same car cost during his test (yes, with more features/options).
Finally, the local Tesla store found a "stripper" black Performance equipped as I would like that's within 500 miles of where I live - I just have to go get it if I place my order. I am seriously considering it, with some caveats:
1) I'm a senior citizen, and although I've owned and enjoyed many sports cars over the years (including some "high end" marques), I can count on one hand the number of times I've exceeded the posted speed limit by more than 10 MPH in the last few years. I haven't approached high speed in my M3, having a car with a 155MPH top end seems like overkill. My logical self is saying "Put the extra money into your grandchildren's 529 plan". The emotional part of me is saying "You're arguing about money with yourself - money you have, it's time you don't have. If you don't do it now you won't ever do it. 'Just Do It' and don't worry about the outcome." Guilt, it's quite powerful....
2) I do enjoy the "Zen" of an EV, having owned a Leaf and 2 BMW i3s (one pure BEV, one with the REX engine). In all three cars performance wasn't what I bought the car to do - I enjoyed the serenity and fun of trying to hyper-mile. The mileage penalty and higher upkeep on the Performance is something to consider, but frankly compared to other performance cars I've owned in the past the Tesla M3 Performance is relatively cheap to own/maintain. The Performance M3 takes a different approach on the Zen front, one that I've done in the past and enjoyed, but maybe not so much now as an AARP carrying Senior. 0-60 in 3.5 seconds is fun, but not something likely to occur on a regular basis in a mid sized city where I live.
3) Frankly, I've been driving my M3 RWD with a newfound level of appreciation. I've always preferred RWD cars, and while I appreciate the performance of AWD cars, for me, the extra weight on the front axle is obvious and takes away some of the everyday driving fun, especially when using the Tesla's instant on torque in city traffic. I can dart from lane to lane pretty aggressively with the RWD car. I'm sure the AWD can as well, but for my intended use I don't know that there is a major advantage to AWD in everyday driving. On the other hand, we do get some snow/ice over the winter (had an unusual 6" snow last week - largest pre-winter snow in 40 years) and the AWD would be useful. Unfortunately the 20" summer spec tires on the Performance car negate a good portion of the AWD. My street is hilly and ices often. AWD is helpful, but summer tires are not at all useful in that weather. The All Season tires on the RWD M3 serve me well year round in my climate.
It's decision time - the Tesla store sales rep told me that I can have the car this week if I commit immediately, but that car could sell at any time if I hesitate. (I don't think he's exaggerating - there is only one car in stock equipped as I would like).
So, given everything I've written, what would you do? Thanks again for the handholding and very useful comments. It's a difficult decision, but one that has to be made quickly.
In CA, you can basically get the $10000 twice, $7500 fed + $2500 state ?
