I just got back from the Paramus, NJ SC and they have at least 20 and possibly 25 MX's there for prep and delivery. There were 5 in the shop and at least 15 more outside. They said the trucks just keep rolling in withX's and S's.The really good news is they also said the quality of the X's coming in now is much better. It looks like TM may have finally gotten their act together and the X's are rolling off the line. Sorry I didn't have time to check them out to report if they are Sig's, production P's or if the 90D's are starting to come through. I'll be back there in the next few days and will give you a better report.
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Wow - The ramp-up is really happening!
- Thread starter ptsagcy
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dwebb66
Member
At the factory yesterday, it seemed that about half the cars on the line were X's. I did not try to keep a hard count, but there were lots.
The Model X body line seemed very active on our tour. Very different than the tour we had at the meet the X event. About half of the cars delivered at our appointment were Model X. I think their delivery estimates are looking more and more realistic. Build quality on our VIN 69X is fantastic! The line is producing.
Saw a Tesla transporter yesterday in Burlingame California with 7 brand new cars; 3 X and 4 S. Good sign.
TJunkers
Member
There were even less today in Paramus. I guess that means they are getting them out to customers fast! Mine will be arriving at the Paramus showroom mid to late April. Can't wait!!!!!!
SureValla
Member
I read an article that said that Tesla will most likely burn through all current Model X reservations by mid-May. It also stated that this is actually a bad sign for the company because it means interest in the Model X has significantly declined and is now around only 100 new reservations per week (compared to Elon's estimate of 1000 per week).
http://seekingalpha.com/article/396...la-appears-poised-issue-debt-2-billion-equity
http://seekingalpha.com/article/396...la-appears-poised-issue-debt-2-billion-equity
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pvogel
Member
Elon's estimate was the build rate, not the new reservation rate. World wide reservations were in excess of 30K, even with some of those switching to Model S and others bailing to more U SUV's I guarantee they are not going to be done with reservations in mid May!
SureValla
Member
Unfortunately of those 30K reservation (which by the way was downgraded to 22,000 by Tesla) it appears that only ~5K have translated into actual orders so I don't think May is out of the question to catch up with orders.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/368...ar-short-elon-musks-model-x-delivery-forecast
It is not an easy time to be short TSLA stock, as the author of this article is.
His 'Planning Fallacy' argument that there would be delays in Model X production would have been dead-on if he had made it in 2012/13, but makes no sense given the Model X ramp-up that has already occurred in the past couple weeks. The vast majority of the "unknowns" have been taken out of the equation at this point.
His argument that there will insufficient demand is a replay of all the arguments why there would be no demand for the Model S. They have all been proven wrong repeatedly with the Model S, and will be again with the X.
His 'Planning Fallacy' argument that there would be delays in Model X production would have been dead-on if he had made it in 2012/13, but makes no sense given the Model X ramp-up that has already occurred in the past couple weeks. The vast majority of the "unknowns" have been taken out of the equation at this point.
His argument that there will insufficient demand is a replay of all the arguments why there would be no demand for the Model S. They have all been proven wrong repeatedly with the Model S, and will be again with the X.
SureValla
Member
I think there is a way for both you guys and seeking alpha to be correct here. In the article he notes tesla has said there are currently 22,000 reservations. He also notes that of those 5000 have turned into orders. At the current production rate Tesla will be able to make those 5000 orders by mid may.
This leads to the question of what is up with the remaining 17,000 reservations. The question I don't know the answer to is has everyone been invited to order? The articles ask the question of if so why haven't they and jumps to the conclusion that they are not going to.
If all 17,000 reservations decide to order today than I agree with the above posters that Tesla will not be done making cars by May. However, as of this moment the articles seem to correctly state they will be caught up with all current orders by mid may.
SureValla
Member
I think another point of the article is that production is outpacing new reservations. This is not confirmed but Tesla has mysteriously stopped reporting how many reservations they have/are getting for Model X. This can only mean bad things.
hockeythug
Active Member
SureValla
Member
SureValla
Member
Hogfighter
Professional Lurker
I'm quite certain that the majority of X reservation holders that have not yet ordered, are waiting for the production issues to be cleared up before they plunk down over $100k for their vehicle. You'll start seeing more conversions to orders once reports of quality vehicles being delivered begin in earnest.
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