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Discussion in 'Model 3' started by dgindio, Feb 25, 2017.
Tesla Model 3 could Insider be a mistake - Business
Not going to read it. It'll either sell and Tesla will survive or it won't and Tesla will fail.
I read it through, but don't expect anything groundbreaking if you do too.
The premise moves from it needs to be a Ford F-truck competitor to be in the right segment for USA buyers, to it makes less profit than the cars Tesla currently makes and they don't make money from those (sigh) to that it's in a very competitive segment with lots of car companies making sedans (which would counter their first premise surely), that they only have a very narrow product range which is risky, and that M3 is a new uncharted market for Tesla.
Bottom line is the headline is clickbait and the article doesn't really delve deeply into any of its claims, which are also contradictory.
BMW Group U.S. Reports December and 2016 Sales
Audi breaks annual U.S. sales record with 210,213 deliveries as SUVs set pace | Audi USA
That article is click bait as @strykeroz posted above -- just to get hits, and earn advertising traffic. With that said-- check out my two links above. One thing I will say is that at $35k before options and with the end of the $7500 Fed incentive looming, the Model 3 is not likely to compete with a Ford or Chevy or even VW Passat. No, at that price, the three main competitors are the BMW, Audi, and Mercedes counterparts. I didnt bother looking for the MB sales figures but this is ample here.
Last year (2016), sales for BMW/Audi as follows (from links above)
BMW 3/4-series combined = 105,000 total vehicles
Audi A4/A5 combined = 43,000 total vehicles
(In that period I do think Audi had a period of transition to new A4, and no A5 being produced).
But in all fairness the point is that Tesla has 400,000 total vehicles pre-sold. I'm going to just go out on limb here and assume that 75% of those cars are USA-based deposits. Based on that, Tesla has 300,000 USA comparative pre-sale. That is basically 3x what BMW does, and I'd argue that BMW is prob the #1 competitor for Tesla here, as that has been a benchmark of sport sedans for decades.
IMO, and again this is just based on the figures above and a lot of my own special sauce (read: opinion), Tesla will do great with the Model 3, if you compare it to the right car. Trying to push the Model 3 as a "car for the people" (ala Volkswagen Beetle) is bullshit. As an owner of a small metal fabrication shop, I can tell you that the most expensive car any of my employees own is sub $45k new (and most of them have $20-30k used cars). That means maybe only 10-15% of my staff has ever bought a car at $42k (the estimated "average" value Elon expects for a Model 3).
TL;DR -- The article is silly. Model 3 will do great. But it isn't a car for the people. But that might not matter, because there are obviously enough people who really want one, such that they have enough pre-orders to triple what BMW does per year in their comparably priced and sized car! (But how that translates into long-term sales is something nobody can say-- only time will tell us that answer)
I think it would be really smart of Tesla to be developing the Y and keep it quiet and roll it out when the demand for the 3 starts to taper.
The small SUV is the fastest growing segment at least in the US.
Huge Demand for an affordable Tesla means buyers would choose the 3 in almost any form.
But later when that initial " I have to have a Tesla" demand is met , the Y would crush.
I don't think Tesla will wait until Model 3 demand tapers to introduce the model Y since it's derived from the M3 chassis. However, Tesla will need to add mfg. capacity to build it.
I don't think Model 3 demand will taper for at least a decade.
Some don't call it Bezos Insider without total merit.
I agree. If the Prius can create great demand and still be around, the Model 3 will be in great demand for quite some time. If Tesla can create a reliable car and get the charging and service network right, they will rule for a very long time.
The initial focus will be on the Model 3, because it's easier to get the range and performance in a car. But I expect the Model Y to follow relatively quickly. The Model X was delayed because Tesla was doing two things:
(1) Developing the AWD system
(2) Using the Model X as a basis for development of fancy new technology including the falcon wing doors and the roof.
In the case of the Model 3 to Model Y transition, Tesla will not have to develop anything new for the Model Y. I think that Tesla will ramp the Model 3, focus on the getting that right, and then once they have resolved major issues, release the Y. (Assuming the whole Tesla house of cards doesn't come crashing down before then.)
Ready: Model U - The Tesla Pickup Truck
That fan art seems to fail to take into consideration any aerodynamic design cues for the rear cab window area or truck bed/tailgate itself.
I know Tesla has built itself into that "luxury" segment of the market, but there aren't really any "luxury" pickup trucks (are there?). It'll be interesting to see how they sell if the starting price is similar to that of the S/X, which I assume it would be.
I also think Tesla's truck will be smaller than the Silverados and F150s of the world.
Well, there was this: Biggest Automotive Missteps: Lincoln Blackwood
Ford's second attempt: Lincoln Mark LT - Wikipedia
And GM's version: Cadillac Escalade EXT Review - Research New & Used Cadillac Escalade EXT Models, which actually sold for 11 years
Aside from those, the Ford F-150 and GMC Sierra offer the full range of luxury features as upgrades to base pickups, see., e.g., the King Ranch and Platinum trims of Ford, and the GMC Denali
Actually, that's a common mistake that people make about truck beds, tailgates, and aerodynamics. Actually, what happens with the truck cab, the tailgate, and the truck bed is it creates a still pillow of air. The air coming off the top of the truck cab then slides over top of that air pillow aerodynamically.
When people drive with the tailgate down, or replace the tailgate with a net that pillow of air is broken, and the air coming off the top of the cab will then be unaerodynamic, making fuel consumption, or in this case electric consumption, increase.
I learned this watching Mythbusters.
I suppose the Model 3's success depends on what cars it is competing with.... I wonder if some Civic/Corolla/Prius customers will switch to the M3? If so.... then there's plenty of demand. Just look what the Model S did to the relatively tiny luxury car market.
And if history is any indication, Tesla will release the Model Y concept around the time of the Model 3 release.
I meant more along the lines of a Teslafied tonneau cover. As well as if something like a spoiler (more of a "lip" than a true spoiler) on the cab would make a difference. Tesla isn't simply just going to make an F150. We know that.
The Mercedes-Benz C-Class was #1 in its segment during 2016, despite being down in sales by around 10% compared to 2015. The BMW 3-Series was down by 25.5% in 2016 compared to 2015, but still took the #2 spot. Putting it just shy of doubling AUDI A4 sales. Methinks this shift is due to anticipation of Model ☰ by informed individuals.
I other news... I am lying in a park with sunlight on my face, thinking... "I love California."
As a percentage of automobile sales, consumer trucks and SUV's (all classified as "light trucks" by Wards Automotive) reached an all time high recently. (In the last few months anyway, I don't have the data in front of me) This is partially driven by desire among consumers, but the trend changed a lot when energy prices fell significantly in the last few years. While cars are relatively long term decisions, the short term state of energy prices has increased their sales and creates a mismatch, but that's a topic for another thread.
Back to the point - yes, it's not the greatest time to compete for the shrinking share of sedans. An SUV would be better. But there are many reasons why the sedan is still the right choice:
1. In terms of getting by with smaller battery packs, the sedan is more efficient and provides greater range. Range is already a concern for people, especially the buyers without daily access to charging.
2. There is a multiyear design time for a car, so the decision to had to be made earlier on. I don't know how many years it would take, but I bet they started design work earlier.
3. Elon probably got a list at the decision time of that showed small and midsize cars as being the largest category of sales when combined, even more than crossovers. I think he's just going down the list of most popular car types at this point. The S and X were seen as their way of easing into car production - they had a lot to learn and the higher price tag facilitated the R&D, built revenue and excitement to raise capital from the markets, etc.
The article is right that this isn't the best time to sell a sedan, but I think it was still the right choice for Tesla. All else equal, Tesla would benefit from higher energy prices so that their products have even greater demand, but those things can't be controlled - they're doing the right thing by pushing forward with a sedan and all of their other ventures as well, in my opinion.
Thing is, such analysts are critical of Tesla for bringing out a new Sedan, saying that an SUV would be better in today's marketplace... But they instead celebrate the recent release of Alfa Romeo Giulia and Jaguar XE in the same segment. Two cars that have no hope of garnering the type of interest already placed on the Model ☰. Those two cars have each been reviewed Head-2-Head against BMW 3-Series and trounced the perennial standard bearer. I see this as evidence those who claim it would be 'impossible' for Model ☰ to match or surpass the 3-Series in handling haven't been paying attention. For the past five years every other major manufacturer in the segment has produced cars superior to 3-Series. BMW can no longer rest on their laurels. And Tesla has certainly studied other rivals to figure out how they beat BMW... So they can do it too! The bias in reporting in favor of ICE is obvious.