WSJ article on wait times at Tesla Superchargers

[stopcrazypp]

Nevertheless, you fail to explain how your suggested automatic priorization system will be implemented in a practical manner. Just how exactly does this queing get implemented?

There are two issues here: 1) creating a queuing system 2) assigning priority.

I don't think #2 is too big of a challenge with some heuristics. For example, someone who just visited a different faraway supercharger station is very likely to be on a road trip, while someone who always visits the same supercharger on a regular basis probably is a local user. You can assign priorities based on such heuristics.

#1 is the question. We do know superchargers take your vin number to authorize charging, so if there is a way to temporarily authorize/de-authorize supercharging per stall, that would be a way to do access control. The touch screen and app can show you when it is your turn, which stall to charge, approximate wait time, etc. You are automatically put in the queue after reaching a certain proximity to the station. With access control set up, it would even be possible to create a reservation system.

Even if there is no access control possible on the supercharger stalls, it would still be possible to create a regular queuing system (where people can possibly still "cut in line" by ignoring the prompts, but everyone gets a number assigned to them in line). The difference would be like a place with a physical line vs one where you get assigned a number when you walk into the door.

 

[Cosmacelf]

stopcrazyapp, this is all a solution in search of a problem. There isn't a supercharger overcrowding problem.

 

[dbullard]

There isn't a supercharger overcrowding problem.

Not now - but imagine when there are 20 times the numbers of Teslas out there (after Model X and Model 3 come out) - the current supercharger sites I've seen alone I-5 will be inadequate, many with no room to expand the supercharger if desired.

I see now that some cities (Bay Area, Sacramento, etc) have multiple supercharger locations, so I bet Tesla will handle it as needed.

 

[stopcrazypp]

stopcrazyapp, this is all a solution in search of a problem. There isn't a supercharger overcrowding problem.

There will always be peak times/seasons where such a system will come in handy. Even without queuing, having a system that can tell charger availability and wait time would be really useful (I'm pretty sure a lot of owners would love something like that). Of course the system won't have to be active at locations where plenty of stalls are available.

And the assignment of priority can be a soft way other than the notices to address the abusers Elon talked about. Even without queuing, it could be as simple as always giving the lower power split priority to the abuser when it shares a stall (rather than to whoever arrived last).

 

[gnxs]

stopcrazyapp, this is all a solution in search of a problem. There isn't a supercharger overcrowding problem.

Agreed. There are likely less than 4-5 actual locations that are in this situation. Being in the Midwest I've been unaffected by this, so I likely don't have a real feel for the magnitude of the problem at those few locations like SJC. In my 2 months of ownership I've never been at a SC that had more than 2 others cars using it (and I've been to 6 different locations in the IL, MI, WI area.

 

[evsolarman]

Agreed. There are likely less than 4-5 actual locations that are in this situation. Being in the Midwest I've been unaffected by this, so I likely don't have a real feel for the magnitude of the problem at those few locations like SJC. In my 2 months of ownership I've never been at a SC that had more than 2 others cars using it (and I've been to 6 different locations in the IL, MI, WI area.

At the end of 2014, assuming 0.5% of Model S's get out of service (accidents etc) each year, there were 56,611 Model S's at the end of 2014. This number is expected to grow to about 100k by end of this year, including the Model Xs. By end of 2016, this is expected to go to 180k, and by end 2020 people are thinking roughly 900k to a million units. In other words, we could have 20x the number of Tesla's on the road in the next 5-6 years. Sure Tesla will increase the number of Superchargers, stalls/charger etc in the mean time also. But if people are even starting to write about increasing wait times now - however small that problem may be today - there probably needs to be at least a constructive dialogue today on how to solve this 5-6 years out. I am not saying that I know all about queing theory and there can be an easy solution. But some improvements probably will get made.

For example, if some one plugs the car into a Supercharger - but fails to return within a period of time after the charging is done - then the system could start an automatic discharge of the battery. I bet those irresponsible folks who leave their cars plugged in will manage to find a way to get back and remove their cars.

Tesla could get everyone who wants to use a supercharger to sign an agreement that allows tesla to access the vehicle location, trip information and charge state. it is theoretically possible to predict arrival times at superchargers based on this. i would imagine it is possible to create a priority system based on this type of information. you could get a 15-minute window when you need to pull into the stall and start charging, and you get a 15-min window following end of charge (which you will be notified of at the time of charge start) when you agree to remove the car (if not, immediate discharge of battery will begin, and you will be forced to go to end of que to recharge). too much details, but you get the point..

 

[MorrisonHiker]

Tesla could get everyone who wants to use a supercharger to sign an agreement that allows tesla to access the vehicle location, trip information and charge state. it is theoretically possible to predict arrival times at superchargers based on this. i would imagine it is possible to create a priority system based on this type of information. you could get a 15-minute window when you need to pull into the stall and start charging, and you get a 15-min window following end of charge (which you will be notified of at the time of charge start) when you agree to remove the car (if not, immediate discharge of battery will begin, and you will be forced to go to end of que to recharge). too much details, but you get the point..

Instead of discharging the battery for people who don't move their cars right away, how about a time penalty that would be added the next time they tried charging? For example, if a user left their car parked for 2 hours after it was finished charging, impose a penalty of 2 hours the next time they try charging. When they next try to charge, they would get a message indicating they must disconnect from the charger and wait for the specified period of time before they will be allowed to charge again. This inconvenience probably get the point across pretty quickly. Of course there could be emergencies and drivers would be able to call to get an override...but the number of times an override of this penalty is allowed should be limited. This penalty would still allow free, unlimited charging but would just delay how often they would be able to charge after inconveniencing other drivers.

 

[ecarfan]

A hundred years ago the fueling network for gasoline cars was almost non-existent. As the number of cars grew, the fueling network grew to accommodate them and in a few decades gas stations were everywhere.
The charging network for EVs will expand to meet the demand. It's not complicated. Tesla now has a great deal of real world experience in siting and constructing Superchargers, and will expand the network to meet demand. And Tesla has the advantage of real time data on usage so it can easily identify where new sites are needed and when existing sites need to be expanded.
Sensationalist articles about wait times at a few Supercharger sites are just "a tale told by an idiot, full of sound and fury, signifying nothing."

 

[gnxs]

A hundred years ago the fueling network for gasoline cars was almost non-existent. As the number of cars grew, the fueling network grew to accommodate them and in a few decades gas stations were everywhere.
The charging network for EVs will expand to meet the demand. It's not complicated. Tesla now has a great deal of real world experience in siting and constructing Superchargers, and will expand the network to meet demand. And Tesla has the advantage of real time data on usage so it can easily identify where new sites are needed and when existing sites need to be expanded.
Sensationalist articles about wait times at a few Supercharger sites are just "a tale told by an idiot, full of sound and fury, signifying nothing."

I see your scenario playing out. At the same shareholder meeting that Elon mentioned abusive local chargers potentially getting a "Note" he also mentioned that the economics of the Network have been very supportable. As long as they continue to build out the Network in rough proportion to sales, the network should remain viable and effective. Of course there will always be isolated instances of bottlenecks and troublesome locations that will need to be addressed on an individual basis.

IMO, imposing any sort of limit, queue, prioritization, etc. will do more harm (from a marketing perspective for Tesla) than any potential benefit for the individual owners that might be affected by this.

 

[Lump]

Owners that can charge at home but choose to use the local SpC that have ignored the "note" will now have their lights flashing indicating an abuser especially if the car has been left in a stall longer then an hour .

 

[Cosmacelf]

Actually, the number of Superchargers right now that are overcrowded is at an all time low, with the number of Model S on the road at an all time high. Tesla has been doing a very good job at staying ahead of the demand curve so far.

So, while Tesla has been building out the network itself, it has also been addressing the hotspots. The overcrowded locations that have been fixed through expansion or other locations opening nearby include: Hawthorne, Barstow, Gilroy, San Juan Capistrano, Harris Ranch. Others? And now Tejon is being upgraded.

 

[MorrisonHiker]

Owners that can charge at home but choose to use the local SpC that have ignored the "note" will now have their lights flashing indicating an abuser especially if the car has been left in a stall longer then an hour .

We could always do something like they do in Brazil for people who park in spaces reserved for the handicapped. :wink:

 

[Spidy]

A hundred years ago the fueling network for gasoline cars was almost non-existent. As the number of cars grew, the fueling network grew to accommodate them and in a few decades gas stations were everywhere.
The charging network for EVs will expand to meet the demand. It's not complicated. Tesla now has a great deal of real world experience in siting and constructing Superchargers, and will expand the network to meet demand. And Tesla has the advantage of real time data on usage so it can easily identify where new sites are needed and when existing sites need to be expanded.

Well, there is a pretty big difference there.

You had oil companies who wanted to sell their product and gas station are operated making a profit, even if selling gas isn't their main income.

Meanwhile with the current Tesla Supercharger system Tesla pays for all of it. Sure it's not really free as the cost is calculated into the sales price, but I would still guess Tesla makes a loss here as they have to continue to invest into new stations and the electricity bill keeps growing.

 

[Cosmacelf]

Owners that can charge at home but choose to use the local SpC that have ignored the "note" will now have their lights flashing indicating an abuser especially if the car has been left in a stall longer then an hour .

What a great idea! And I'm not kidding!

 

[Lump]

What a great idea! And I'm not kidding!

Really?

Evil Tesla shaming hat put on...
Option 2. Note ignoring abuser doesn't recieve OTA feature updates for 6 months.

 

[SteveG3]

A hundred years ago the fueling network for gasoline cars was almost non-existent. As the number of cars grew, the fueling network grew to accommodate them and in a few decades gas stations were everywhere.
The charging network for EVs will expand to meet the demand. It's not complicated. Tesla now has a great deal of real world experience in siting and constructing Superchargers, and will expand the network to meet demand. And Tesla has the advantage of real time data on usage so it can easily identify where new sites are needed and when existing sites need to be expanded.
Sensationalist articles about wait times at a few Supercharger sites are just "a tale told by an idiot, full of sound and fury, signifying nothing."

Exactly. What's more, Tesla is actively working on expanding the capacity of the SuperCharging through another opportunity. JB Straubel mentioned two years ago that Tesla is working to bring SuperCharging times down to 5-10 minutes. Obviously a challenge, and no guarantee, but the time to recharge a vehicle at a SuperCharger may drop to 1/4 or less of what we see today... this would result in an increase of capacity for the network of roughly the same proportion. Longer range Tesla's would also allow the network to handle more vehicles.

 

[pox]

I've had my Tesla just over 3 months, 9k miles and I never had to wait for a charger, most I have ever seen was 2 other Teslas charging in Denver and the both left was soon as I plugged in.

 

[jerry33]

Instead of discharging the battery for people who don't move their cars right away, how about a time penalty that would be added the next time they tried charging? For example, if a user left their car parked for 2 hours after it was finished charging, impose a penalty of 2 hours the next time they try charging. When they next try to charge, they would get a message indicating they must disconnect from the charger and wait for the specified period of time before they will be allowed to charge again. This inconvenience probably get the point across pretty quickly. Of course there could be emergencies and drivers would be able to call to get an override...but the number of times an override of this penalty is allowed should be limited. This penalty would still allow free, unlimited charging but would just delay how often they would be able to charge after inconveniencing other drivers.

But wouldn't that delay the other drivers more as they would likely stay in the stall for the two hours?

 

[TexasEV]

There are isolated, local problems, not system wide problems, so they can be solved with local not systemic solutions. The local solution may be different in each instance-- expand the capacity of the location, build another supercharger location nearby, or in some instances even expanding destination charging in an area may be a solution.

 

[stopcrazypp]

A hundred years ago the fueling network for gasoline cars was almost non-existent. As the number of cars grew, the fueling network grew to accommodate them and in a few decades gas stations were everywhere.
The charging network for EVs will expand to meet the demand.

There's a pretty big difference though. The gasoline and non-Tesla charging networks are not free. People pay based on usage and popular areas have higher prices, which puts a limiter on demand. While you can argue the supercharger network is prepaid, right now in terms of accounting, it is still a money loser, and the way it is paid make it so everyone "pays" the same no matter usage or location. A tragedy of the commons problem can certainly occur if Tesla completely ignores it.