WSJ: Toyota Maps Out Decline of Conventionally Fueled Cars

[neptune2000]

Quotes from:

Toyota Maps Out Decline of Conventionally Fueled Cars - WSJ

"The world’s best-selling auto maker said Wednesday that by 2050, gas-electric hybrids, plug-in hybrids, fuel-cell cars and electric vehicles will account for most of its global vehicle sales, without giving a detailed breakdown.That means gasoline- and diesel-engine powered cars, currently accounting for roughly 85% of Toyota global vehicle sales, would be near zero, Senior Managing Officer Kiyotaka Ise said."

 

[Vexar]

Toyota has a vision problem if they think we're going to go to Hydrogen, and this timeline is their roadmap of slow and steady to a Hydrogen powertrain. The #1 barrier to EV adoption right now is price, which is tied up in battery improvements. Economies of scale and advancements that show leaps every 5 years (chemistry, anode/cathode design, etc), and Elon is saying to expect 6 1/2% improvements per year. How many of us have friends who would love to get a Model III ? That's end of 2017, right? Not even two years. Ditto for the Chevrolet Bolt (not Volt. Idiots.), and whatever VW, Audi cooks up. 200-mile range Nissan Leaf. I'm eagerly awaiting the F 150-beating EV truck.
By 2020, anyone driving a petrol vehicle (gas or diesel) in the USA or EU is either in love with the smells and sounds, or stuck with an expensive choice.
There may be a market out there in the future to convert petrol vehicles to EVs, for the die-hards. I've seen a few efforts already, but nothing large-scale. It is very clear that this electrification is the direction the market is heading. What is less clear (to Toyota) is the rate of adoption.

Toyota: if you are reading my post here, please, give up on hydrogen and just make one version of the Prius that is all-electric. See what happens.

 

[kort677]

the problem I see is that their future is fool cells

 

[jvonbokel]

By 2020, anyone driving a petrol vehicle (gas or diesel) in the USA or EU is either in love with the smells and sounds, or stuck with an expensive choice.

I agree with you in general, except for this part. I think 2020 is a bit early. Elon himself has projected 500k Teslas produced in 2020. US car sales in August were at an annualized rate of 18.2M and rising (source). Even if several other EV/PHEV models sold at levels of 500k/yr in 2020, it would still be a stretch to see plug-ins account for a quarter of all new sales.

 

[robatbeach]

Ummmm.....25 years too late.

 

[AWDtsla]

35 years = executive language for "over my dead body"

 

[Grendal]

That's an easy prediction since by 2050 gas powered vehicles will be a thing of the past. I would even go so far to say that they will be outlawed in most large cities except maybe for recreational purposes by then.

I have no clue what fuel cells will be used for but I would be shocked if they have anything to do with personal transportation at all.

 

[Vexar]

I agree with you in general, except for this part. I think 2020 is a bit early. Elon himself has projected 500k Teslas produced in 2020. US car sales in August were at an annualized rate of 18.2M and rising (source). Even if several other EV/PHEV models sold at levels of 500k/yr in 2020, it would still be a stretch to see plug-ins account for a quarter of all new sales.

So here's my radical thinking. I'm fine with scepticism on the year. Focused on US only, if that's an acceptable preface.
1. EPA and akin produces tougher regulations based on growing environmental concerns (September 2015. check. Thanks, VW!)
2. Every major manufacturer is selling at least one full BEV with 200+ mile EPA range. 2017-2018, except Toyota and their Hydrogen thing...
3. OPEC bleeds the competitiveness out of the Williston, ND shale oil fields by keeping prices too low for too long, then dials back hard in 2018-2019
4. Oil jumps to $200 a barrel. 2019-2020
5. EV pack price for batteries (not cell price) are at or below $100 a kWh, anywhere you shop by 2020
6. The Millennial generation enters actual income generation, but prefers autonomous car sharing (more time to snapchat) by 2020
7. Most Baby Boomers are retired by 2020 and maintain what they own because, well, Oldsmobile is out of business anyway. <rim shot>
8. The world runs out of crude oil. 2055-2060. Don't take my word for it: BP did the research!
Play with the dates, but that's my sequence of events.

I did say "stuck with an expensive choice" and I mean that specifically. What EV owner with 100,000 miles of experience owning an EV would ever buy an ICE again, given a no-compromise, more affordable option? I think EV ownership is a one-way door. Do you work on a farm and need to tow a trailer with 10,000 pounds of hay, or a horse trailer with four horses in it? Yeah, you're probably still buying gas/diesel pickup trucks for at least another 7-10 years. However, it is an expensive choice and you know it because nobody is making it affordable for you. Are you fixated on the Alfa Romeo brand? It's a thing of passion: you can't put a price on love. For everyone else, though, economics, convenience, I still maintain 2020 is a tipping point on the choice of an electric car. It will be an even choice by 2020 for total cost of ownership, pushing into more affordable to own an EV every time a manufacturer releases a new model.

The #1 to-do here is charging locations, especially for high density housing. There are certain income brackets who I think are really going to want the cheaper option of an EV but not be able to solve the charging logistics.

Oh, final dig: does anyone think that hydrogen stations are going to be 1/10th the density of EVSEs or petrol stations, at any point in the future?