X 2020 new or X pre-2017 used / free supercharging for regular long trips?

[kiersla]

Set to purchase my first Tesla for delivery in Sept 2020, I'll drive ~10,000km per month across Europe, in 5000km round trips.

I was holding out for the Y for a long time, but with European delays, I now want a Model X P100D instead.

I missed out on free unlimited supercharging which ended earlier this year. I have been looking at purchasing a pre-2017 used model from a private dealer, to get unlimited supercharging. I can save over 500EUR per month, 6000EUR per year.

My alternative is buying a new inventory 2020 car, or a used 2018-2019 from a private seller. Naturally these options don't come with free supercharging.

The painful thing is, 2020 X's have the old interior which will get a refresh in 2021 (or 2022 in Europe), along with "project palladium" and the Plaid model on its way... is a late 2020 new X even worth it?!

I come to the community to ask: what would you advise? Which car will depreciate the least? Since I expect that I'll be buying an upgraded Model X or Y in 'Plaid' in a few years, I won't drive it for a long time.

I hope that based on your experience, far greater than my own as a novice in this, you can help me make the best decision!

Option 1: Buy a privately sold pre-2017 Model X P100D, get free supercharging, save around 6000EUR per year
Option 2 Buy a privately sold 2018-2019 model
Option 3: Buy a new/inventory 2020 from Tesla.com

Important factors for me:
- Comfort and safety over long distances
- Depreciation over many miles in 2-3 years
- Cost of supercharging
- Speed of supercharging

Thank you so much for reading!

 

[doctoxics]

Buy the new Model X to get the greater range and better suspension. The 100D has plenty of performance without having to pay for the P.

 

[Super_Popular]

2017 for now, wait for the new refresh to spend high dollars.

 

[kiersla]

Thanks for the replies and input guys!

I have made a list of asking prices on EU market:

104,999EUR - 2016/08 - P90DL (Founder's edition, free supercharging, ventilated seats, VIN 068, 57,827km, first owner)
87,500EUR - 2016/10 - P90D (Signature edition, free supercharging, 13,800km)
75,900EUR - 2016/10 - P90D (unlimited supercharging, 105,000km)
72,900EUR - 2017/01 - 90D (standard, free supercharging, 72,000km)
109,999EUR - 2017/01 - P100DL (unlimited supercharging, 42,639km)


no free supercharging:

89,990EUR - 2018/07 - P100D (53,000km)
99,000EUR - 2018/02 - P100D (61,032km)
(these are the only P100D 2018 on the used market)

96,943EUR - 2019/07 - P100D (22,000km)
95,188EUR - 2019/04 - P100D (9,690km)
112,900EUR - 2019/12 - P100D (12,000km)
114,999EUR - 2019/12 - P100D (3,824km)
(these are the only P100D 2019 on the used market)

114,900EUR - 2020/01 - P100D (5,000km)
132,100EUR - 2020/01 - P100D (50km)
(these are the only P100D 2020 on the used market)

117,105EUR - 2020 - P100D (tesla inventory, <50km, great config: grey, 6 white seats, 20in wheels)
124,605EUR (same as above, configured new)
121,405EUR (same as above, configured new, but with 7 seats - ideal config)

 

[Uncle Paul]

OP has a dilemma.

Buying a used 2017 will be the less expensive to buy and fuel. Depreciation will also be less.

On the other hand, the new Raven long range plus will have the new far superior adaptive suspension, longer range, quicker charging plus hundreds of significant improvements.

Result is the new X will provide a much better driving experience, but cost more to do so.

The frugal man will buy used, and suffer a bit, while the one wanting the better car will pay up to do so.

 

[spooky981]

I've owned Teslas since 2013 and have supercharged four times in my life. I feel like free supercharging is just an extension of range anxiety, where you think it'll be a big deal before you buy the car and then you find out its not a big deal at all.

Specific to your circumstance, I wouldn't buy anything from the first two years of Tesla production. It takes them a little while to perfect the manufacturing.

 

[DoctorVenkman]

Do you want to save a bit of money or do you want to have the best car possible? Only you can decide.

 

[x_EL_x]

OP has a dilemma.

Buying a used 2017 will be the less expensive to buy and fuel. Depreciation will also be less.

On the other hand, the new Raven long range plus will have the new far superior adaptive suspension, longer range, quicker charging plus hundreds of significant improvements.

Result is the new X will provide a much better driving experience, but cost more to do so.

The frugal man will buy used, and suffer a bit, while the one wanting the better car will pay up to do so.

Completely agree... I bought a 2017 100D with unlimited supercharging being more frugal and not needing all the new features. While I love the car, it has tons of issues common for the model x (from what I can tell in these forums) that should not exist on a 3 year old car... Believe it or not I bought it direct from Tesla too. Be prepared that if you go with the older model, you might be dealing with warranty issues right away.

 

[tpduke112]

I've owned Teslas since 2013 and have supercharged four times in my life. I feel like free supercharging is just an extension of range anxiety, where you think it'll be a big deal before you buy the car and then you find out its not a big deal at all.

Specific to your circumstance, I wouldn't buy anything from the first two years of Tesla production. It takes them a little while to perfect the manufacturing.

Do you take a different car on road trips?

 

[pereiks]

I just like to point out that 10000 km a month is 333 km a day. Taking 12 hours off for food and sleep and your average moving speed for the next year is going to be 28km/h.

Also 120000km per year will result in so much depreciation so extra €500 a month won't hurt much.

I hope it's a typo =)

 

[DoctorVenkman]

I've owned Teslas since 2013 and have supercharged four times in my life. I feel like free supercharging is just an extension of range anxiety, where you think it'll be a big deal before you buy the car and then you find out its not a big deal at all.

Specific to your circumstance, I wouldn't buy anything from the first two years of Tesla production. It takes them a little while to perfect the manufacturing.

That's great for you, but OP has said they will be driving 10,000km per month so clearly they will be getting much more value out of free supercharging than you have.

I'm not sure what prices are like in Europe, but in the USA the average price is around $0.25/KWh for supercharging. If we assume around 250 Wh/km for an older Model X, that translates into a rough estimate of $0.0625 per km supercharged in the USA, on average. So if OP is driving 10,000km per month they will be saving $625 per month with free supercharging. Certainly that's a "big deal" worth considering for OP!

 

[KentuckyX]

I've owned Teslas since 2013 and have supercharged four times in my life. I feel like free supercharging is just an extension of range anxiety, where you think it'll be a big deal before you buy the car and then you find out its not a big deal at all.

Specific to your circumstance, I wouldn't buy anything from the first two years of Tesla production. It takes them a little while to perfect the manufacturing.

I’ve owned Teslas since 2018 and I’m sure I’ve SC’d 100 times, at least; very, very few of these were “local” charges. Your case seems like more of an exception than the norm. I bought my car(s) specifically with traveling in mind. Neither one has let me down in that aspect.

 

[kiersla]

First, thank you all for your replies, I’m a veteran to forum communities but I’ve never felt so well understood or supported from my very first post! I have felt so confounded in making this decision and finally with your input, I know I’ll make the right one.

I can’t quote each post as it will get messy, but I will address everything you’ve all mentioned.

Really I want a Plaid (X or Y), but I expect that we won’t see these in Europe until 2023 at the soonest, possibly even later, as it all depends on Giga Berlin. The MX I want to buy today is an ‘interim’ car, which I see primarily as an investment, that I will resell in 3+ years.

Given that I will be driving long distances across multiple countries 2-3 times per month, I can reasonably expect to rack up the likes of 100,000km per year on the odometer. Buying a 2020 MX and selling it 3 years from now, with 300,000km on the odometer, it’ll be quite difficult to recoup my investment, as there will likely be many more appealing MX on the market, as I won’t be the only one trading a MX for the ‘hot new’ Plaid or other Giga Berlin produced models.

In Europe, an EV point costs 0.69USD per KWh, volume discount can reduce the price to 0.40USD. Home charging is about 0.35USD, which I won’t be able to use as I don’t live on the ground floor. Superchargers cost 0.39USD. (these are all converted from EUR official numbers, USD so you all follow easily!)

So, as DoctorVennkman touched on, 10,000km/month means a saving of 975USD per month - an even bigger deal worth considering!

As Uncle Paul so elegantly put: a used 2016 MX P100D will be less expensive, and depreciation will also be less. It includes free unlimited supercharging for life for all future owners, unique to the 2016, and an offer that is likely to never return. Only 18,028 MX were made in 2016 - very few of these are in Europe, not many were 100D let alone P100D.

Yes - on the other hand, a 2020 MX P100D raven long range plus will have the newer and far superior adaptive suspension, longer range, faster charging, the cabin will be quieter. The seats will fold, but at a compromise on comfort and style. Vegan leather instead of real leather too - which is a disputed topic. Overall the 2020 will provide a better driving experience indeed!

However thinking realistically, much of what the 2016 lacks has could be upgraded - especially in terms of the technology. The 2016 will have MCU1 instead of MC2, but this can be upgraded easily. AP2 in the 2016 can be upgraded too, in fact it will be for free for FSD. I expect too, that battery replacements will become far more common on older models. The engine should last a while, but if it were to be upgraded in say 5-10 years, chances are they might fit the newer variant. Given that Tesla is revamping the MX interior to match the 3 and Y, with a horizontal touchscreen, its quite possible that they may offer an upgrade package to older Teslas down the line, too! While the seats can’t be retrofitted at present.

While I am an impulsive person who typically wants the ‘top model with all the premium options’… I have learned to second guess myself and consider ‘second best’.

I have found a full-option 2016 P100D with 7 seats, black on black, 42,000km on the odometer at an asking price of 129,500USD. It includes free supercharging, I have verified by a screenshot in the owners’ Tesla account. New, I believe this car would have retailed (in the US) at ~160K USD. They say the Tesla 2016 YoY depreciation is -10%, 2018 is 22% and 2019 is 20%. However that’s in the US and not specific to the MX. Based on the asking price of this car, it’s value has dropped -20-25% in 4 years, 5-6% per year. Since it’s a rare first year production vehicle with a unicorn free charging feature unavailable to future Tesla buyers, the value may go up - but this is speculative.

Choosing this older model has 3 major benefits: scarcity, less depreciation, and free supercharging which can transfer to a new owner. The latter being incredibly rare, one hell of a unique selling point when I come to sell the car… and an offering I will milk dry, saving up to 11,700USD per year. The downside: I can’t pick the customization I want, it’s only slightly cheaper than a 2020, and it’s ever so slightly less of a pleasure to drive.

A new model, matching the above older models config, costs 135,000USD from inventory or 143,500USD configured. The benefit of buying new: I can customize the car instead (I would prefer grey/white/6), I will benefit from the modernity of 2020 models in comfort and driving experience. The downside: fast depreciation, ever so slightly more expensive, and no free supercharging. The latter meaning substantial extra yearly costs - in combination with greater yearly depreciation most likely, possibly even up to -50-60% in 3 years according to the stats, even worse with the mileage I will put on it.

I hope I have given you all a clearer picture of the decision I have to make! Beyond the benefits of free unlimited supercharging as something I can make a lot of use of and as feature that offers allure to future buyers, the greater question is about depreciation of new Teslas vs old ones, stemming from my desire to only own the car for 3 years before reselling for a Plaid. With either a 2016 or 2020, I feel willing to compromise on driving confort, customization, or unlimited supercharging - but only if it’s worth it 3 years from now when comparing what I paid for the car to what I am offered for it. Let me know your thoughts, and if I left anything out of consideration.

Thanks again!

 

[kiersla]

I don't know how different it is in the US, but this is how it is in Europe:

 

[kiersla]

Additionally, here is an example of a route I will be driving very regularly. It's 15h56m total, 12h59m driving, 2h57m charging:

 

[DoctorVenkman]

Since it seems like you are focused on saving money, it is clear to me that you should go for the 2016 with unlimited supercharging. You will be saving almost $1000/month in energy costs - that by itself would cover most of your loan payments each month.

I don't think it's reasonable to assume the 2016 will hold its value. You will likely see significant depreciation, especially since you will be driving it so much. However, that depreciation will definitely be less than what you would see on a new vehicle. And considering the $1000/month energy savings, you will come out way ahead financially by purchasing the 2016.

 

[kiersla]

Thanks for chiming in!

I welcome anyone else to also input, in case there is indeed anything I have overlooked.

My greatest concern, having just done some more research, is that a 2016's warranty will expire in 2025. I've read that Tesla may not offer replacement batteries out of warranty (at cost) as a way to get older vehicles off the road. So come 2025, my $125K+ plus car will be truly worthless?! Surely not, doesn't seem very forward thinking, can this really be true?

 

[Bigriver]

I have found a full-option 2016 P100D with 7 seats, black on black, 42,000km on the odometer at an asking price of 129,500USD.... A new model, matching the above older models config, costs 135,000USD from inventory or 143,500USD configured.

My heart skipped a beat with these prices. But this is Europe and I suppose includes transport and perhaps tariffs. A reduction of only $5500 for a 4 year old car compared to a brand new inventory car would not be worth it to me.

I get your desire for free supercharging. Are there options in Europe to buy a used inventory car with free supercharging? Although FUSC would not be transferable when you sell it, it could open up possibilities of more car options. I would not place as high importance on transferable FUSC. When you sell it, it will be a pretty high mileage car, range will have degraded further, and probably not as likely that next owner would be extensively using supercharging.

And beyond the battery warranty, does the 2016 have any extended warranty for everything else? I think most model X’s have higher than average issues, and warranty coverage would be important to me, especially on a used car from the first year of this model.

 

[jboy210]

Additionally, here is an example of a route I will be driving very regularly. It's 15h56m total, 12h59m driving, 2h57m charging:

View attachment 580522

How often do you do that route?

It I traveled that route more than 4 times a year I would fly. Heck, I do not even like driving from LA to San Francisco.

With that said, free Supercharging would sure be a win for your scenario.

 

[ohmman]

My opinion is that the savings from reduced depreciation (on the 2017) will be a larger figure than the free Supercharging (also on the 2017). Depreciation is not to be dismissed as an expense. Add those two together, and if finances are a strong factor in your decision, I think the 2017 wins out.

I'm about to replace my 2016 with a new X, but I'm waiting/hoping for free Supercharging to be added to inventory cars in September. The only reason I'm upgrading is because we tow a caravan/camper with the X and the greater range is a big deal. If we didn't do that, I would keep the 2016 for quite a bit longer, at least through the battery day announcement.