X announcement on Stephen Colbert?

[Zaxxon]

Your give-Elon-an-out parsing is correct: it isn't a promise. However, it was/is clearly the intent. If it doesn't happen, it's another in a long line of slips, and we're sitting at >9 months since the last official communication of any sort to reservation holders.

Perhaps I have a higher regard for how a company sitting on nine figures of deposits should treat its prospective customers. Or perhaps I'm just cranky as my Cubs are down two to the Giants right now.

 

[FlasherZ]

Your give-Elon-an-out parsing is correct: it isn't a promise. However, it was/is clearly the intent. If it doesn't happen, it's another in a long line of slips, and we're sitting at >9 months since the last official communication of any sort to reservation holders.

Perhaps I have a higher regard for how a company sitting on nine figures of deposits should treat its prospective customers. Or perhaps I'm just cranky as my Cubs are down two to the Giants right now.

Well, you know how each year you start off with the hope that the Cubs will actually deliver and be decent? But instead, you see how they then disappoint and prove they are Completely Useless By September? Tesla's kinda like that. Each time a timeframe is offered, you're hopeful that *this time* might be *the time* they're on time. And instead, you're left once again wondering why you thought things change.

(Full disclosure: Cards fan here. )

 

[Zaxxon]

I knew I was teeing up a fastball for someone with the mention of the Cubbies. Was hoping it wouldn't be a soulless Cards fan, though...

 

[NigelM]

Your give-Elon-an-out parsing is correct: it isn't a promise. However, it was/is clearly the intent.

I agree with you there; I've always felt that what Tesla is doing is neither easy nor simple but it is ambitious, to that end I take a cautiously optimistic view on 'should', 'probably' and 'maybe' when it comes to my favorite car company.

 

[Zaxxon]

As do I. That'd be easier if they'd throw us a bone every few months.

 

[FlasherZ]

I knew I was teeing up a fastball for someone with the mention of the Cubbies. Was hoping it wouldn't be a soulless Cards fan, though...

That wasn't even a fastball, that was a coach-pitch change-up softball right down the middle with a clear pitch-tip.

I have to admit the division is very tough this year, with the NL Central division holding the #1, #2, and #3 teams in the NL and the #1, #3, and #4 teams overall in the Majors. Time to nuke the whole divisional structure, IMO. Cubs are doing well, as are the Pirates. It's just a shame one of those two will be left behind in the postseason despite having a record that crushes someone who will make it.

EDIT: I suppose I need to bring this back on-topic... I've learned to hold a similar view as Nigel.

 

[Zaxxon]

Agreed on the divisional structure. And I suppose I should bring it back on-topic, too: no chance of an X announcement on Colbert. At least not a big one.

 

[Daveman]

I think there's a good chance he WILL announce & show Model X. This is a huge national TV audience... not just press & loyal fans that follow Elon on Twitter

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I thought about this too, but I think that would be a positive... It would be used as a teaser on CBS News that would drive a lot more viewers

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A potential hole in this theory about this is show is taped earlier in the day. I'm sure word would get out before it runs on tv.

I thought about this too, but I think that would be a positive... It would be used as a teaser on CBS News that would drive a lot more viewers

 

[markb1]

I think there's a good chance he WILL announce & show Model X. This is a huge national TV audience... not just press & loyal fans that follow Elon on Twitter

This is exactly why I think it won't happen. Tesla does not need a huge audience for their announcement. They have plenty of reservations to sell all the Models X they make for a while, and making an announcement to a huge audience will create more frustration. They're better off promoting the Model S at this point.

 

[aznt1217]

This is exactly why I think it won't happen. Tesla does not need a huge audience for their announcement. They have plenty of reservations to sell all the Models X they make for a while, and making an announcement to a huge audience will create more frustration. They're better off promoting the Model S at this point.

It's more of a brand awareness move and education on the PURPOSE of Tesla which seems to get lost somehow. It's not a demand generation move if he were to show the car.

 

[goneskiian]

This is exactly why I think it won't happen. Tesla does not need a huge audience for their announcement. They have plenty of reservations to sell all the Models X they make for a while, and making an announcement to a huge audience will create more frustration. They're better off promoting the Model S at this point.

I agree markb1. Elon will say nothing about he X on Colbert because, as he likes to say, that is a demand lever that doesn't need flipping at this point. It will only create (more) frustrated potential customers if they saw the X and then go to buy one and realize they can't get one for 6 - 8 months (at least).

 

[markb1]

It's more of a brand awareness move and education on the PURPOSE of Tesla which seems to get lost somehow. It's not a demand generation move if he were to show the car.

That I can agree on. He will use the opportunity for those things. But the Model X announcement will probably be done at a later date.

 

[simplejack]

This is exactly why I think it won't happen. Tesla does not need a huge audience for their announcement. They have plenty of reservations to sell all the Models X they make for a while, and making an announcement to a huge audience will create more frustration. They're better off promoting the Model S at this point.

Les than a 6 month backlog if you believe what Tesla says. With a direct to consumer sales model I would think you'd want as much of backlog as possible which is why the lack of any official launch by end of Aug makes me suspicious of further delays.

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I agree markb1. Elon will say nothing about he X on Colbert because, as he likes to say, that is a demand lever that doesn't need flipping at this point. It will only create (more) frustrated potential customers if they saw the X and then go to buy one and realize they can't get one for 6 - 8 months (at least).

Why would Tesla not want to generate as much demand as possible?

 

[goneskiian]

Why would Tesla not want to generate as much demand as possible?

Tesla is not demand constrained, they are production constrained. Especially on the X at the moment.

Did you not see how much the stock jumped today after the Consumer Reports review of the P85D came out? Just wait until the reviews of the X start pouring in. I'm pretty sure the current backlog is more than sufficient to carry them until some X reviews can happen.

Edit: To add to my point, as of earlier this month in the X reservation tracking thread over at the TM forums the average daily new reservations was about 27.

 

[gizmoboy]

Les than a 6 month backlog if you believe what Tesla says. With a direct to consumer sales model I would think you'd want as much of backlog as possible which is why the lack of any official launch by end of Aug makes me suspicious of further delays.

Getting consumers to sign up for a car purchase 6-8 months out is hard. I'd imagine that vast majority of folks willing to do that are already reservation holders. Doubt there's much real opportunity there to stuff the pipeline for 8 months out...

 

[Gerasimental]

That wasn't even a fastball, that was a coach-pitch change-up softball right down the middle with a clear pitch-tip.

I have to admit the division is very tough this year, with the NL Central division holding the #1, #2, and #3 teams in the NL and the #1, #3, and #4 teams overall in the Majors. Time to nuke the whole divisional structure, IMO. Cubs are doing well, as are the Pirates. It's just a shame one of those two will be left behind in the postseason despite having a record that crushes someone who will make it.

 

[vandacca]

Why would Tesla not want to generate as much demand as possible?

Model-S sales is better than Model-X demand. Model-X reservations are only $5k and potentially refundable, so they cannot spend it like cash. The longer the reservation is in the queue, the more chance that it will get cancelled. A Model-S sale is cash in the bank and they can build one much quicker.

 

[NigelM]

Model-S sales is better than Model-X demand. Model-X reservations are only $5k and potentially refundable, so they cannot spend it like cash. The longer the reservation is in the queue, the more chance that it will get cancelled. A Model-S sale is cash in the bank and they can build one much quicker.

From an accounting perspective the X deposits are free cash flow and Tesla can use it as they like*. It appears on the balance sheet as a liability but they can use the cash. Nevertheless, you are correct that Tesla is better off with Model S sales revenue going through the P&L rather than just taking more Model X deposits.

*IIRC there are one or two states that require deposits be held in an escrow account.

 

[vandacca]

From an accounting perspective the X deposits are free cash flow and Tesla can use it as they like*. It appears on the balance sheet as a liability but they can use the cash. Nevertheless, you are correct that Tesla is better off with Model S sales revenue going through the P&L rather than just taking more Model X deposits.

*IIRC there are one or two states that require deposits be held in an escrow account.

Thanks NigelM, spoken like a true accountant. ;-)

 

[napabill]

Thanks NigelM, spoken like a true accountant. ;-)

Knew there was a reason I liked you...