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X vs S depreciation

Discussion in 'Model S' started by Tes La Ferrari, Aug 21, 2018.

  1. Tes La Ferrari

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    if we were to compete either a new p100d s vs x, or a 75d or 100d in the same comparison, what would the depreciation look like ?

    Which will retain the highest value, and by how much ?

    Also what about if we were comparing 2016 p100d ap2 x vs s ? (Assuming same options)

    The s body style has been put longer, but is more efficient range wise, and quicker - wonder what the resale difference would look like
     
  2. MXWing

    MXWing Active Member

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    Musk seems to hate the X based on his comments approx 48 hours ago.

    If Model Y doesn’t have FWD we can possibly see the X being museum pieces.

    Hard to figure out the exact numbers but it’s easy to know how depreciation would work here.

    X depreciates more than S due to higher cost and lower demand.

    P100D depreciates more than 100D, S or X due to just being more expensive.

    With cars you want the lowest trim of the best model.

    With houses you want the crappiest house in the best neighborhood.
     
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  3. Tes La Ferrari

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    What did he say ?
     
  4. MXWing

    MXWing Active Member

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    The Model X is an exercise in hubris.

    My interpretation:

    Nearly killed Tesla and set the Model 3 back by years.
     
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  5. Tes La Ferrari

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    Really ? That was the whole tweet ?

    Seems really unlike Elon to say something like that..
     
  6. MXWing

    MXWing Active Member

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    Watch the MKBHD interview to get the whole context of what was said.

    He’s made other insinuations of being an “idiot” building it.

    Totally Elon. That’s how he can boost or tank the stock by $100 overnight.
     
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  7. Tes La Ferrari

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    I see. So you think x’s will become collectible if the y doesn’t come with fwd’s? I also can’t imagine feb2 of the x not having FWDs. Considering that they will have figured them out by then
     
  8. MXWing

    MXWing Active Member

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    Normally I’m pretty good at predicting things based on logic but I can’t decide what direction they will pursue:

    1.) Refine FWD and keep it going.
    2.) Ditch it and go for practicality.
     
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  9. bob_p

    bob_p Active Member

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    Getting back to the OP's question.

    From a $ standpoint, a P100D will depreciate more than a 75D or 100D - because the initial purchase price is higher.

    If you keep the vehicles for at least 3-5 years, the depreciation rate for all Tesla's are likely to be similar, whether it's an S, X or 3, for performance or non-performance, single or dual motor, ...

    For projecting depreciation, I use an estimate of 2% depreciation per month - which was pretty accurate for our 2012 S P85 when we traded it in 2 months ago - getting us within $4K of Tesla's trade-in price - and likely close to what we might have gotten if we had tried to sell it ourselves.
     
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  10. twonius

    twonius Member

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    *Maniacal laughing from software limited S 60.*
     
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  11. twonius

    twonius Member

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    #11 twonius, Aug 21, 2018
    Last edited: Aug 21, 2018
    3)..



     
  12. Tes La Ferrari

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    My guess is the depreciation curve would be steepest at the beginning....but would it continue on the same trajectory for all the battery sizes ( when comparing like size batteries) between s & x?

    I’m wondering if both x and s follow the sale curve..
     
  13. AMPd

    AMPd Active Member

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    How can a car be a collectible when there will be over 100k of them?

    I own the E60 BMW M5 of which only 20.5k were produced and it has a very unique engine that well never see again and I don’t even think that will be a collector car
     
  14. twonius

    twonius Member

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    Agree. E39 M5s are popular but still rather worthless.

    Basically anything with 4 doors is unlikely to be collectible.
     
  15. MXWing

    MXWing Active Member

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    Collectible would be a stretch, but I think retaining a high value relative to purchase price is in the realm of possibility for the Model X.

    If no FWD is made for 10 years and you have a desirable Model X, one that has supercharging with the car, etc it wouldn't be worth 0 after 10 years unlike a Model S with no AP1 or parking sensors.
     
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  16. bob_p

    bob_p Active Member

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    It's easier to look at depreciation over several years, than to predict it during the first year or two, since perceived value seems to be tied to "model year", causing vehicles purchased early in the model year to appear to depreciate less quickly at the beginning, while vehicles purchased late in the model year appear to depreciate faster at the beginning - and after that first year, the depreciation rate tends to settle down.

    A fully loaded X P100D at around $156K should depreciate roughly about $34K in the first year while a fully loaded X 100D at around $119K could lose about $26K - assuming they both depreciate around 2% per month. Actual resale value will be different, especially in the first year, because the book value will more likely be tied to the average value of all vehicles produced in that model year, rather than sold on a specific date.

    You should be able to make some estimates based on KBB value of S & X models for different calendar years and different battery pack sizes.

    I suspect that after a few years, as long as there isn't a major flaw in any of the models - they'll all tend to depreciate at about the same rate.
     
  17. Tes La Ferrari

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    #17 Tes La Ferrari, Aug 21, 2018
    Last edited: Aug 21, 2018

    Based on this - there’s probably a sweet spot where a p90d or p100d are not much more than a 90d or 100d. How many years in does that sweet spot hit ?

    Also there will likely be a point in time where the heaviest depreciation has hit, and there is a flatter depreciation curve thereafter. Where do you think that is, and is it the same for the all battery sizes and for the s & x?
     
  18. bob_p

    bob_p Active Member

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    Have you driven both a performance and non-performance Tesla? The non-performance S and X 90/100 models are faster than most vehicles on the road. You probably wouldn't see the difference in acceleration under typical driving conditions on normal roads. Especially if you are looking at the price, I'd recommend going with the non-performance model and get the largest battery pack (100).

    The depreciation rate (% depreciation per month) is likely to stay about the same, no matter which model, battery pack or configuration you get. After a few years, it will feel like the depreciation is levelling off, but that's only because losing 22% per year is fewer $ as the value drops.

    If you're looking for a used Tesla - I'd look at the battery pack and also the autopilot version. AP 2.0 and 2.5 are close enough to be comparable. The AP processor in either will be replaced next year (at no charge) if you've activated FSD. If you have any interest in the AutoPilot of Full Self Driving features, you should get an S or X with AP 2.x hardware.

    We also have the new non-leather premium seats in both our S & X and would highly recommend them.

    As for S vs. X - if you can use extra storage or seating, the X is a better choice. If you want maximum range (about 10% more with the same battery pack), then choose the S. And if you decide to stick with a performance version, that will cost you range.
     
  19. dbldwn02

    dbldwn02 Member

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    Well, I just went and test drove a Model 3 Performance today and had my S valued for a trade, just for kicks.

    2017 75D Mint with 18k miles
    AP2.0 Purchased
    FSD Purchased
    White Interior

    Paid $88k 18 months ago. Offered $53k today. So 40% depreciation in less than 2 years. Ouch!

    I'm assuming they don't count AP and FSD purchases toward the trade value? That's just super low.
     
  20. sm1810

    sm1810 Member

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    I’ll buy it for that :)
     
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