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Yeah. The fully-owned robotaxi business is a proving ground for the scale-out and until the hardware and software is cheap and mature enough.

Waymo LLC has other owners (about 7.5%) than Alphabet, and Waymo fully owns the IP to the Waymo Driver, so Waymo LLC is the only company that can sell/grant a license for using the Waymo Driver.

Dolgov has already said this in a few interviews

I can be smart and use some superlatives at the same time. English is not my first language. What's your excuse? (moderator edit)

Nothing. Those who actually read reaserch vs the simps yet again.

"Tesla admits that the cameras on the new Teslas are misleading and too poor, and says that customers must get out of the car to check for obstacles." https://www.motor.no/aktuelt/tesla-innrommer-svakheter-med-kamera-system/275404

I'm pretty sure any humanoid robot won't be deployable to do any of these tasks this decade, due to both lack of capability and lack of safety. Also any such robot will require detailed on-prem custumization/training. It's not just unpacking and "hey robot, do this".

Are you sure about that? Can you get an Optimus to follow you around?

EM: What "science" have you done in the last 5 tears YLC: 80 research papers in the last 2.5 years. EM: We don't use CNN:s anymore. YLC: Yes you do. *mic drop*

It's not going to pass the coffee test in ten years most likely.

Doing what?

Here's some old footage from the archives:

You need to catch up on the full thread... Also, ConvNets, which LeCun "invented" are very much the foundation for computer vision, and Elon should know that if he's getting into a pissing contest about it.

Elon getting a public spanking by Yann LeCun

Only fair to get a shoutout when you buy 35k H100:s. RIP Dojo architecture.

I'm pretty sure an accident every thousand drives is unacceptable. Not need to overthink it beyond that at this point. ;)

A few 100 more updates like that and they might get there. Problem is that it gets hard and harder to improve the system in reliability. Diminishing returns…

The cost for mapping isn’t high and it’s updated for free by the fleet.

If you have a few thousand zero disengagement drives in a row then we're approaching autonomy levels of reliability.

Yeah that's never going to happen for existing cars.

Define working? I've seen prototypes that was used to raise money that worked a lot less well than FSD, still it's likely year and years and billions and billions away from autonomy.

Actually, getting to that point isn't very hard. Just look at the last 10-14 years of failed autonomy efforts and the billions of money invested into such ventures. Getting from prototype hardware and software to autonomy has proven to be the really hard part.

Waymo costs less than a 1B / year. Tesla, OTOH, has no profits to use to fund a RT buildout, so unless they are willing to go into the red I don't see it happening.

I think Waymo will be cash-flow positive by 2027-2028. When do you think Tesla will deploy a taxi operations, 2030? Break even by 2035?

I don't think you need to worry about Alphabet... ;) They made a 25 billion dollar profit in Q1 alone. That's more than Tesla's revenue... All "other bets" (of which Waymo is one) was less than -1B . Perhaps Waymo is half of that, around -500M, probably a bit less now when they are getting...

That's why Tesla is out tbh. For how long do investors endure negative EPS and FCF? It will be for years and years, only to be able to compete in a market where margins are razor thin. Getting to where Waymo was 3 years ago still makes Tesla be 3 years behind on rolling out, which includes...

The car that can do it without an intervention 10000x in a row all times of day, with more traffic and in most types of weather. Also the car that is designed to not "fail immediately".

Me too.

I was.

I don't think this is generally correct. You could do it for some amount of sample data (ie the test cases that you use as proof), but you can't guarantee functional equality for all cases of input, since we can't explain why NN:s produce the output it does. Perhaps you could potentially...

There is a video showing the service area from a year ago here: https://rollout.autoura.com/cities/asia/wuhan

That must be only in Wuhan, right? https://rollout.autoura.com/platforms/apollo

No one knows what ”AGI will require” tbh. There isn’t even a clear definition of what people mean when they say “AGI”.

There is zero chance of that happening. Western "media" got that wrong. Baidu said "Baidu will seek cooperation opportunity with Tesla on Robotaxi based on Tesla’s specific need and timetable." It's a misconception that they would use Tesla tech, it's the other way around if anything. They...

I doubt that's going to happen. It's basically reverse car-rental. If the car isn't returned to you in the same condition, who deals with that? Damaged exterior/interior? How do you prove it? I wouldn't rent out my car if there are no guarantees about that. In fact I probably wouldn't rent out...

The Zeekr MIX doesn't come with a wheelchar ramp built in to the vehicle if that's your question. However, we can't rule out that Waymo might retrofit some percentage of the fleet if they go with that vehicle for a wide roll-out.

Low MPI means that ”I” is high. Miles/Intervention.

If it looks like a tree, and walks like a tree...

MobilEye is not a believer in pure e2e. I think they argue their position quite well. https://www.mobileye.com/blog/autonomous-decisions-the-bias-variance-tradeoff-in-self-driving-technology/ Back in November 2022, the release of ChatGPT garnered widespread attention, not only for its...

I think the perception might classify the object as a tree and not a trailer which would explain why it wants to go around it all the time. But the stupid tree is always one step ahead....

Yeah it's not a slam dunk by any means, but from what I've read 90% or the revenue is in large metros, so clearly geofencing isn't a problem. It also goes hand in hand with the fact that depots and maintenance crews that are fairly fixed geo-wise. I like the reasoning around worker costs in...

Phil Koopman wrote the following about this incident. "A Waymo vehicle was involved in a serious crash in Los Angeles. Significant damage and an injured autonomous specialist (possibly acting as a safety driver). Reported details are incomplete, but include: - Struck from behind by a vehicle...

Yeah right... So why don't they do highway L3 then? That would clearly increase the take rate massively. To me personally its worth 10x the "city fsds".

Again, I don't think you understand the difference between what Mercedes offers in terms of normal L2 and what they offer as L3. You can use MB L2 on the autobahn in the rain at night just fine.

If I learned anything from buying FSD in 2019, it’s that you never buy anything based on what someone says it may be able to do later. The hardware will be obsolete if we get to usefulness for these robots in 10-15 years.

Yeah, unless the Waymo was going in reverse the other driver is probably at fault...

Not while watching a movie instead of the road, no. At what speeds can you do that in a Tesla again? No? Oh, I forgot Elon is autonomy-challenged and that they added SUPERVISED in their latest goal-post relocation…. Do you understand that MB have a very capable L2 too that works under all...

Yeah that's never going to happen. Elon said as much. The boards don't even have the same form factor, have different wiring and different cameras.

Omar "Tesla master pumper" Quazi and his dad should get a life. The ODD for the the MB system is the same as basic Autopilot - limited access highways. The feds should really force the vendors to disallow activation outside the ODD described in the owners manual. I'd pick the MB driver assist...

Google ”Zeekr Mix” for the new platform.