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  1. D

    Make your robotaxi predictions for the 8/8 reveal

    I don't think Elon makes wise decisions with significant foresight and engineering input any more. seems like a great idea. Of course they could try to make it and sell it to people with human driving first, but they aren't.
  2. D

    Make your robotaxi predictions for the 8/8 reveal

    I really do wonder if the RT hardware platform will ever really take off, or that will be abandoned a few years in. I agree that it seems more feasible that once they have a mass production lower-cost car ready they'll try to make robotaxis off of it as it's easier to guarantee the machine...
  3. D

    Make your robotaxi predictions for the 8/8 reveal

    The problem with the RT self-driving is that there won't be extensive human driving with the same hardware to train it. The original goal, before Musk altered the deal, of making a new low cost platform for both human and robotic driving was the right one. Get manufacturing cheap, sell tons of...
  4. D

    Make your robotaxi predictions for the 8/8 reveal

    They have some 3d normalization now into a shared space so they aren't all independent views, so its not as bad as you think, but new cameras will still require tuning.
  5. D

    Make your robotaxi predictions for the 8/8 reveal

    The CT production turned out to be very different underneath than the CT demo, because the demo couldn't be manufactured or pass crash.
  6. D

    Review: Hankook iON evo AS vs Pirelli AS+ Elect vs Michelin PS 4S vs Michelin PS AS 4

    on your other arm tirerack.,com, and hankooktire.com it does, though it is out of stock on tirerack.com i'd ask your website admins to check the database data and confirm
  7. D

    Make your robotaxi predictions for the 8/8 reveal

    Elon got rid of it because of parts shortage during pandemic and ordered his engineers to deal with it. The vision had NOT at all improved enough to make the radar obsolete, and that shouldn't be Elon's call anyway. Elon lied about it that it was for performance when it obvious to people...
  8. D

    Review: Hankook iON evo AS vs Pirelli AS+ Elect vs Michelin PS 4S vs Michelin PS AS 4

    I don't believe that he employee is correct. The summer tire versions don't have a tread warranty but the AS versions do with a 50K including the AS SUV. I really wonder if there's some commission to push Michelin? If not the iON I would do Pirelli PZero Elect unless you really need the...
  9. D

    Review: Hankook iON evo AS vs Pirelli AS+ Elect vs Michelin PS 4S vs Michelin PS AS 4

    Unfortunate to hear. There is an upcoming Electricdrive 2, I presume an updated model, as the existing model doesn't seem so great. https://www.goodyear.com/en_US/tires/electricdrive-2/24947.html...
  10. D

    xAI grok: Chat LLM

    Elon saying something on a video is not a commitment given his history. He can make it a non-profit corporation and open source legally binding but did not---he raised money from VCs who want money back. When a youtube statement contradicts needs of powerful capitalists, which one wins? What...
  11. D

    Range Loss Over Time, What Can Be Expected, Efficiency, How to Maintain Battery Health

    With greater maturity in the market, the battery longevity will figure more into resale value.
  12. D

    FSD 12.3 today - utter failure!

    The overall software version is v11.1, the FSD has its own numbering system and it is coincidental and unfortunate the numbers nearly coincide. https://www.notateslaapp.com/software-updates/version/2024.3.25/release-notes
  13. D

    Make your robotaxi predictions for the 8/8 reveal

    I suspect in China's case it means "you are not allowed to make or own your own maps, only what government approved vendors says is the map". USSR famously had intentionally deceptive maps for internal use.
  14. D

    Make your robotaxi predictions for the 8/8 reveal

    nerds are cheaper than mass producing electronics So, you're going to sue the wealthiest man in the world who has a nasty attitude? Some 4s are more equal than other 4s. no car sold today will ever be able to take non-driving passengers in a legal commercial paid service some of them might...
  15. D

    Range Loss Over Time, What Can Be Expected, Efficiency, How to Maintain Battery Health

    playing armchair chemist...... if loss L ~ t^(1/2) then dL/dt = 1/2 t^(-1/2) = 1/2 * 1/L like the attraction of any free lithium to graphite is inversely proportional to thickness of already existing solidified film (1/L) between free lithium and the graphite.
  16. D

    Range Loss Over Time, What Can Be Expected, Efficiency, How to Maintain Battery Health

    That is apparently real and observed in all the scientific publications on calendar aging. There are multiple mechanisms chemically for capacity loss from calendar aging (and even more mechanisms for other kinds of aging) but the primary mechanism apparently is loss of mobile lithium which...
  17. D

    Make your robotaxi predictions for the 8/8 reveal

    I predict there will also be a "spinoff/tracker" stock corporation with all Tesla AI/robotics assets put in and a Secondary Public Offering to catch AI hype in capital markets, and with of course Elon getting 51% of shares of this for free without putting in dime himself and an even more...
  18. D

    The few times Tesla has addressed battery degradation, they have simply lied and dismissed it.

    this post should be a sticky or part of FAQ for all such questions.
  19. D

    Poll: let's build the Robotaxi

    young children supervised by their parents aren't the same level of rough and irresponsible as unsupervised teenage delinquents and tweakers would be.
  20. D

    Poll: let's build the Robotaxi

    that looks like something that will break easily or be cut on an unattended robotaxi
  21. D

    Poll: let's build the Robotaxi

    that must be new. Usually the wire connection to handle power for windows can't be articulated/lengthened for sliders, vs in the hinge in regular doors where length change is small. But a pure robotaxi probably won't have power windows, or any open/close windows at all, just interior vents...
  22. D

    Poll: let's build the Robotaxi

    harder to have windows that roll down with a slider.
  23. D

    Autopilot is useless on non-highway roads.

    Unfortunately the reason is obvious: Elon Musk doesn't care about basic AP because it doesn't make him extra money. He harshly criticizes and fires employees at whim and harangues them about FSD. Any employee working on basic AP is liable to get fired as useless, even if they are doing the...
  24. D

    The few times Tesla has addressed battery degradation, they have simply lied and dismissed it.

    You mean you cycle from say 95% to 80%? That's not the optimal practice.
  25. D

    The few times Tesla has addressed battery degradation, they have simply lied and dismissed it.

    Higher state of charge on average and 50% supercharging doesn't help on preserving battery life. The "million mile battery" was a very high purity NMC battery developed in Jeff Dahn's lab and not charged up to as high voltage as usual for NMC, and was measuring cyclic aging rate. It wasn't a...
  26. D

    How is my LFP battery holding up after 2 years?

    It certainly does for me. I've had very little degradation over the second year. In the battery research literature they model calendar aging with time as approximately sqrt(T). That is sometimes an approximation to something else much more complicated but the actual chemistry and physical...
  27. D

    Review: Hankook iON evo AS vs Pirelli AS+ Elect vs Michelin PS 4S vs Michelin PS AS 4

    Wet performance was often quite opposed to high efficiency. I don't know the chemistry and physics involved but it was a continuous issue that low rolling resistance tires were poor in wet. If the Hankook iONs are good in wet and still very high efficiency they have a real tech breakthrough.
  28. D

    Direct 18" vs. 20" wheel comparison for efficiency

    Yeah, something $3500 less, and factory tuned for the tires.
  29. D

    How is my LFP battery holding up after 2 years?

    There is still more calendar aging at 100% than at 60% for LFP. There is the same step as NCA, but the step is at a higher SOC. There are some long threads on the Model 3 Battery subforum. Lots of discussion including multiple peer reviewed chemistry articles...
  30. D

    Is Elon thinking of REHIRING some of the fired SuperCharging folks

    How does that "find out who the actual contributors are" work
  31. D

    Is Elon thinking of REHIRING some of the fired SuperCharging folks

    And you don't know which ones really were truly productive and needed because you fired their supervisors too. And all the best ones with more options go to other employers. And the worst ones who are able to lie the most convincingly work to get re-hired. And there's mass chaos and lack of...
  32. D

    Make your robotaxi predictions for the 8/8 reveal

    They could need hundreds of test cars, each with 4-6 lidars in all directions.
  33. D

    Direct 18" vs. 20" wheel comparison for efficiency

    I really want a "Touring" version of the 3P--- comfort tires and wheels with all the other upgrades. I now understand why the oldies used to get Buicks. Dad has old Benz sedans. Maybe I'm turning into them.
  34. D

    Make your robotaxi predictions for the 8/8 reveal

    It looks pretty bad for Luminar unfortunately. > As disclosed in Luminar’s earnings report on Tuesday, in the first quarter of 2024, Tesla contributed over 10% of Luminar’s revenue, totaling more than $2 million That means they have few lidar sales so far and the biggest customer is one that...
  35. D

    Direct 18" vs. 20" wheel comparison for efficiency

    This is consistent with an academic test I saw. In a nutshell, the aero efficiency was strongly correlated with how much of the overall wheel + tire area was covered (better) vs uncovered (worse). So when people compare 18" to 20" tires the main difference in efficiency is because in an 18"...
  36. D

    Model 3 SR+ LFP Battery Range, Degradation, etc Discussion

    Determining capacity is much harder in a LFP battery than a NCM/NCA because of the flat voltage curve. It probably did a recalibration, but maybe poorly. It's a bit risky but try driving down to 10% or less and letting it sit in sleep (no sentry no remote access, nothing) for a few hours...
  37. D

    Model 3 SR+ LFP Battery Range, Degradation, etc Discussion

    Looks like 65% charge limit is pretty reasonable to do to get the 62.5% SOC curve for calendar aging which is pretty good.
  38. D

    Model 3 SR+ LFP Battery Range, Degradation, etc Discussion

    That's not optimal for calendar life.
  39. D

    FSD 12.3 today - utter failure!

    Yes, I saw that on Google Street View. https://www.google.com/maps/@28.910957,-82.6059732,3a,75y,349.17h,84.67t/data=!3m6!1e1!3m4!1s6XqhFRa6AldH4b2wJV2NQQ!2e0!7i16384!8i8192?coh=205409&entry=ttu No, this doesn't seem to be designed frequently in California roads often, presumably because...
  40. D

    FSD 12.3 today - utter failure!

    What situation is this? When do you have a "U turn" next to a high speed lane? Is this a divided controlled access road? TBH I never seen something like this driving in California in a freeway. Nearly all U-turns on roads would generally avoid the median and there'd be a dedicated left/u...
  41. D

    Regret purchasing FSD after the Ver 12 "upgrade" being crammed down my throat

    it's more that people are thinking they are under manual control but the car accelerates on its own. I experienced that early when disengaging rolled back from autosteer to TACC when I wanted it to turn off. I think it implies arbitrary and probably unfair regulatory scrutiny and regulators...
  42. D

    PIRELLI P ZERO ALL SEASON 235/45/R18 - Are these decent tires?

    In that case go for it. Tesla shipped a 94 SL tire, the Hankook Kinergy GT (not a great tire) with the Model 3 for a while instead of the MXM4. 98XL isn't needed. They're now using a different and I presume better Hankook with a special Tesla OEM version, Hankook S1 All Season with foam, in...
  43. D

    Entire Supercharging Team Fired?

    the competition is still nearly all ICE cars
  44. D

    Entire Supercharging Team Fired?

    Like J.D. Rockefeller thinking "hey why dont I pause on those gasoline stations and let my competitors do it"? Never. Now is the time to go forward with maximum force and gain decades of unassailable revenue and marketing and customer data.
  45. D

    PIRELLI P ZERO ALL SEASON 235/45/R18 - Are these decent tires?

    Can you get the PZero Elect version? What you found is the 'generic' non-EV tire. It's probably fine but will have more noise and lower efficiency than the EV specific version of the tire. The price is attractive and if you aren't set on EV specific tires, go for it. 94V vs 98W is probably...
  46. D

    Regret purchasing FSD after the Ver 12 "upgrade" being crammed down my throat

    I think it was a safety thing with unexpected mode confusion, possibly forced upon Tesla by regulators. Not a problem for you but was for the masses.
  47. D

    Regret purchasing FSD after the Ver 12 "upgrade" being crammed down my throat

    Ah OK. TBH I found autosteer to be more reliable and predictable than the TACC. There are few cases of 'phantom swerving' on the highway. Before FSD 12.3 I would want Autosteer but manual acceleration. With FSD 12.3, setting chill and minimal lane changes with no nav destination is sometimes...
  48. D

    Entire Supercharging Team Fired?

    It probably isn't like other charge networks. It has much more use, much more efficient capital expenditure and lower maintenance costs. 9 months of expenditures in return for decades of revenue from the chargers. That's short sighted thinking---the demand will continue to increase. How did...
  49. D

    Entire Supercharging Team Fired?

    No, only if they are on domestic residences. Nobody is going to spend 4-5 hours in a random parking lot. 20 mins, maybe. The answer for urban demand is forcing apartments and HOAs to agree like California does.