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How realistic do you think the 20M number is? I will be VERY happy to see 5M and ecstatic if Tesla can get to 10M. Folks on this board (myself included) tend to get into trouble when we use aspirational numbers like 20M as if they are likely.

Trading today may be volatile....

Some good news...Services PMI is starting to drop. This has been a problem area in getting overall inflation down. Edit: I have to think the Fed is going to like this. Business activity holds up while Services inflation is coming down. It lends a little more credence to the possibility of a...

Tesla was already pushing for max production globally so there is not much transitioning in strategy actually taking place here. It was inevitable that with increasing production there would come a time where prices had to drop. Unfortunately, due to macro conditions this is occurring earlier...

Sorry if already posted, but here are a couple articles about the Boring Company's Las Vegas tunnels. CES is taking place there now so it is in high use. -Seems the Gizmodo writer was trying hard to knock the idea, but could not find much to complain about other than it was somewhat boring...

FYI...just got an alert that Ameritrade will be turning off Day Trade Buying Power (DTBP) at 2pm ET.

I would love to say it is, but no idea what will happen with P&D and earnings. Capt Jim James livestream for anyone interested. He is in it and discussing now...

S&P gap at $136 fill was apparently what the algos were aiming for. Amazing how it bounced immediately after hitting it.

On 16 Sept we closed at the HOD around $303. Different times back then...

I hope you are right. Nasdaq just spiked and TSLA did not move. It feels like a big entity(s) is either unloading a big position or simply hell bent on ensuring TSLA cannot rally. Either way we should be moving up with the indexes since we are sitting on major support at $150. I'll be curious...

Similar...the pre-market head fake got me to sell off my protective puts as I planned to reset them on any move up. Now I know if I buy them back we will bounce. :mad: Might Elon be selling today?

Agree...caution is warranted. Above 200 may be a good spot to target if we can get there. We need tech to broadly participate in this rally. If it does not then it is highly likely we will retest these lows. Funds have shifted to energy and value. When those funds begin to return to...

@dl003 Any ideas on specific levels to look out for in any short to medium term rally? I am watching today to see how TSLA participates vs the broader indexes. I want to use this opportunity to de-risk and start thinking about -CCs as I am guessing an opening rally might be faded. Edit: This...

Any particular reason they are targeting 90 days out? CPI tomorrow and possible election outcome moves makes me very hesitant to do anything today outside of being defensive. I closed a few sold puts to provide some overhead in the event of a high CPI number tomorrow.

Elon needs to put out Master Plan III. Put the focus back on what matters and show that he is still focused on the details.

Interesting thread related to Telco data requests from 2016 era. I wound up meeting with a Director who came in huffing and puffing. The Director said “We should know when users leave their house, their commute to work, and everywhere they go throughout the day. Anything less is useless. We get...

Nice thread that highlights Twitter's potential. WTF have they been doing with the R&D spending? Sorry if already posted. All Elon needs to do is to shut-up for at least six months and allow for his changes to take effect without the continual self-sabotage. Ironic that the best way for Elon...

In my mind the turning point would be his visit to NYC on 1 Nov (if I remember correctly) where most of his focus was on the advertising vs technical side. This was when it was reported that some ad agencies and GM (General Marketing) decided to postpone their Twitter ad campaigns. Of course...

Wishful thinking here, but Elon owning Twitter may turn out to be a net positive for Tesla investors. There apparently was no real constraint on him to not post stupid chit on Twitter, but now he will be beholden to advertisers to ensure he can recoup the high purchase cost.

+ recent immigration policy changes that are assisting to keep the labor market too tight. By increasing lower wage labor availability you help to put a damper on service sector inflation which has been problematic. Surprising to me this does not get discussed more. Until the bots arrive we...

Do you run a thinkScript for these or do you run single ToS studies for each?

There was a poll by Jason Calacanis on this. Highly possible the Verge took the high end to frame a story or Jason could be trying to justify to Elon that his pricing of $20 was too high. We do know that Jason, David Sacks, and others are part of Elon's Twitter War Room.

Sorry to be a downer here, but delivery of 12 semis on 1 Dec will likely not move the market. At this point this is largely expected and we are where we are. Tesla will need to first show that the semi will contribute materially to the bottom line in the near term and layout a plan for the ramp...

Geez...this pricing feels eerily similar to that of FSD. Hopefully some additional features come along with this. :rolleyes: Why not charge a one-time $100 fee for account verification? Sometimes I wonder if Elon has lost touch with proletariat. Edit: Thinking about this further it does make...

Too funny... “It makes me worry about the future of our democracy... the future of celebrity conservatorship. I mean, when Britney [Spears] happened...” “Michelle Obama wouldn’t have happened if Elon Musk owned Twitter. Obama in 2008 wouldn’t have happened without Elon Musk owning Twitter.” “I...

Normally color would not be thought of as a demand lever for autos since traditionally there is a wide selection of choice, but interestingly enough Tesla has limited color options so long they could pull something like this off. How nice would it be for Tesla to introduce a seasonal color in a...

I have noticed this as well in the last couple weeks when I try to roll DITM puts. Try shifting closer to the bid slightly off the midpoint. I had surprising success with small .05 to .10 cent shifts. A lot depends on how much liquidity is out there for your strikes, but getting off that...

Damn, I really wish they had these colors in China. To see the whole demand decline thesis destroyed by the introduction of two color variations would have been priceless. :cool:

I don't see that anyone answered you on this. Elias Martinez (@eliasmrtnz1 on Twitter) does something like this with people who volunteer to input their information via his FSD tracker site.

What would the SEC think if Elon sold shares this morning less than 24 hours after saying TSLA had a possible path to be worth more than the two largest companies in the world combined? I'd imagine that would raise some SEC eyebrows. Curious if this is one reason for the rushed equity requests...

Question that remains is how much equity is needed? Elon could easily pull in $1-2B, but anything north of that and I have to think that is a tall order with such limited time. Thankfully I held off on rolling my puts out this morning. Hopefully we can get some clarity on how close he is to...

Any idea what extrinsic value was left (if any) on them before exercised?

fyi

Same here. I sold a lot of these last week and I am now seeing that I it would have been smarter to wait until today and gotten significantly more premium with less risk. Live and learn.

Yep...there seems to be a lot of demand for these c250 lotto tickets today. The price has been consistently climbing all day despite the up/down price action of the underlying. Edit: IV will likely plummet tomorrow so for these to pay out (if held til tomorrow) you are likely going to need a...

Numbers for Q3 are likely to beat, but what matters will be how Tesla answers the China demand question for Q4 and 2023. We need a solid answer from Zach on that question to provide relief from the current demand decline narrative. Perhaps as important, we need Elon to behave on the call. I...

Troy's numbers are below although I believe he is not counting vehicles that were in-transit from q3 in his q4 estimate.

Fed's Brainard's speech this afternoon was viewed as dovish causing the spike up in markets.

I would not worry much about the funds he has locked-in from cash investors. It is Prince Alwaleed that I think would be most likely to have bailed.

Any thoughts on who Elon will install as CEO? J Calacanis is my bet

Extrinsic or 'time value' likely went near or below 0. There was no time value left for the buyer of the put to extract therefore they executed. You should configure whatever app your broker has to show extrinisic value on your option positions. Example: I have 333 puts that briefly went...

These were all sold calls.

Pete Bannon is very well known and respected having worked with Jim Keller for a long time at a number of stops. He helped develop the Apple A series chips for one.

I wanted to post an interesting video from Stockcharts. The title of the video is a little extreme imo as there is some very good analysis of the last six months of market trading. TL;DW: Monitor XLY vs XLP, key sectors (Growth vs. Value, Small-Cap, Mid-Cap and Smal-Cap), and the 2pm to close...

Tesla needs to show a prototype working in a real world environment. They could hit it out of the park and show more than one working in a Tesla factory. No union sympathies, not able to impregnate, works 24/7, no COVID/Monkey Pox concerns...literally a home run.

Apologize if this has already been posted, but there is a Youtube channel with interviews with Eroll Musk discussing young Elon. Dad of a Genius: Five Minutes with Eroll Musk

For those of you in or around the New Orleans area. Tesla's Autopilot team is there at the Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition (CVPR) conference. They appear to have brought the Cybertruck with them.

This is a well researched article on what legacy auto is doing to emulate Tesla. Like most of these types of articles it stops short of extrapolating out in any real detail what is happening now into the not too distant future. Tesla is gaining momentum while the legacy automakers are still...

FOMC Calendar 14-15 June 2022 Press conference is usually on the second day so Wednesday.

SpotGamma thoughts on the current rally and how to play it with call spreads.