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  1. capster

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I agree. Buying and showing off my Cybertruck gives me a way to visibly contradict the FUD in a way that is hard to refute. Voting is the same. I think most retail investors who hold shares would vote for Elon. Those people who have fallen victim to the bile spewed against Elon and Tesla...
  2. capster

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I predict we’ll see the earliest commercial use of eVTOL air taxis before 2030. These will be in niche situations to begin with: Short hops maybe over water obstacles such as bays, lakes, and sounds mostly to and from major airports. If there’s charging at both ends these short hops, then...
  3. capster

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    The shorts are all, so to speak, holding bags of nitro. They need to drop their bags to run away, but if a large enough bag gets dropped all goes “boom!" The shorts are praying for a miracle. The shareholder vote is the next thing they’ve latched onto, maybe that’ll help them for a bit...
  4. capster

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Nah, I don’t think the trolls have won—noisy and annoying yes—but they’re just working hard cause the shorts are in such a bad position. Further shorting seems not to be having a lot of effect. The dollars shorted is almost certainly over $20 billion and that’s at or near the highest of the...
  5. capster

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Performing on an Olympic team level is not necessarily comfortable for anyone and is certainly not for everyone.
  6. capster

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    The SP closed at $183.28 on 4/30 with that near record short interest—that’s solid. Seeing the riotous short action in @Papafox ’s posts since, TSLA is holding up quite well. Fascinating. Hilarious too and we haven’t even gotten to the punch line. 😉
  7. capster

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I doubt it was a hit to morale at all, probably just the opposite. All the rest of the people who are busting their humps no doubt resent slackers whose weight they have to carry and will have been glad to see the slackers jettisoned.
  8. capster

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Tesla is back in battle mode and accelerating to flank speed toward autonomy. Elon felt executive, indeed everyone’s, bandwidth too valuable to waste sorting through this SC team to find out how deep the slack went. Also as has been mentioned previously, there are likely organizational changes...
  9. capster

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Here are a handful of suggestions for improving the signal-to-noise and signal-to-FUD ratios in the thread: When you hit reply, before you are taken to enter your reply and if there are previous replies from others, you are presented the number of previous replies and an opportunity to look at...
  10. capster

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Ah, time. Interesting thing time. How much time does a company have to remedy a product flaw that killed someone? Presumably not a lot. Given gaps, reasonably frequent updates are needed. A thief wouldn’t have control over their own patch cadence. If the thief’s product stagnates at, say...
  11. capster

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Good point, though clean room design doesn’t circumvent patents and that’d be a showstopper. For example, presumably patents apply to at least some aspects of some of the hardware used such that the FSD NN is not viable without said hardware.
  12. capster

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Technical, cost, and legal barriers prevent reverse engineering Tesla’s FSD and deploying it. A thief would need billions of miles of driving encompassing all the meaningful situations Tesla has found and placed in its training data to extract the behaviors embodied in Tesla’s FSD. This...
  13. capster

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    All of them. You don’t ask your racehorse’s trainer to decide which parts of its excess fat are slowing it down. You demand to have it shed all the excess.
  14. capster

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Autonomy is happening now. Future dominance in FSD and androids, aka humanoid robots, could be established within the next six months to a year. That is the source of the urgency. Elon hates to lose.
  15. capster

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    If that happens, I for one will be happy to donate to the campaign of whomsoever is running against her. Though I expect she’ll have deep pocketed support from those industries Elon and companies are disrupting.
  16. capster

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Seems like a hostile move by the court. It doesn’t appear justice is being sought.
  17. capster

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    When and how do we again vote for Elon’s compensation package? Wasn’t there something about April 29th? I haven’t seen any emails or anything. I’ve checked ir.tesla.com but didn’t see anything recent. I’m a US based shareholder.
  18. capster

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Some may want to send a large fraction similarly to this classic t-shirt:
  19. capster

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    The median household income for Washington state for 2017-2021 was $82,400. Even the highest, King county which includes Seattle, was not that far above the limit at $106,326. The lowest county, Whitman, was only $43,613. That gave it a rank of 2700 out of 3141 US counties. No so hilarious...
  20. capster

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Perhaps we can count the stationary equipment and installation costs if not the Cybertruck itself? If you don’t install the PowerShare equipment (which you need to go through a Tesla certified installer to obtain), Tesla will give you a $700 credit for their shop. In my case I probably...
  21. capster

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I paid cash from shares sold at not a great price. But I happened to pick up some leap calls last year (which I hadn’t done before and I don’t generally approve of options) at a good time that cover this year and a bit of next. Who knows? FSD might mature sometime soon. 😉
  22. capster

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Ouch. Well, I suppose I should be glad to have given @Artful Dodger and @wtlloyd a laugh. Neither my ex nor myself found it amusing that the neural net PhD that I received 30 years ago proved less valuable than expected in my career. Ironic that the “AI" (actually NN) talent war now going on is...
  23. capster

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Ahem, I have averred repeatedly since I joined here at the beginning of 2018 and never gainsaid in the interim that 2024 would be the year for FSD. 😎 Of course the price of that insight was to learn technology forecasting the hard way, by being wildly early to somewhat early in my educational...
  24. capster

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Oh, I do hope long term Tesla shareholders will get early access. 🤞🏻
  25. capster

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I’ll take the other side wrt your position (again): The new consumer vehicle off the existing lines won’t be a decontented Y (or 3).
  26. capster

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Dizzying edge case in the Matrix: Shorts and longs capitulating simultaneously. 😵‍💫😆
  27. capster

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Not only will autonomous driving save lives (a wonderful result on its own to be sure) it will also provide an economic boost. I expect a measurable boost in economic productivity due to autonomous driving. This will be due to people working and shopping while being transported. There may...
  28. capster

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Um, doesn’t processing a rebuttal and changing your mind based on it require an analytic mind and independent thinking? Your premise belies your implied recommendation. You’ve inadvertently given the most concise reasoning for not wasting time, money or energy on rebuttals that I’ve seen here...
  29. capster

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    This is an illuminating post on X from Elon: Moderator😡(MEDIA=twitter)More unacceptable language(/MEDIA) Helped me realize: * There is a life-or-death race to AGI * That race may be more nearly winner-take-all than not * Tesla has the pole position for AGI in the real world * X has a trove of...
  30. capster

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Huh, it’s a wonder that any species of shark could survive with such dull teeth. I wonder how it does so? Oh wait, I know: It’s a bottom feeder. Though that’d mean it’s growth is stunted. So it must be a ‘short’ shark. 😅
  31. capster

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    So, after driving the Cybertruck for a while now, I have to admit it’s not something that you’d be calling a "Robotaxi"… … rather it’ll be more of a "Robolimo." 😀
  32. capster

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Finding the difference between the online and real world being so stark has mostly been a heartening experience for me as well as being revelatory. I am saddened by the deleterious effects an online diet of bile, bullying and negativity is having on individuals and society. I never joined...
  33. capster

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I disagree with your conclusion because you are confusing the online world with the real one. Real people in the real world are enthusiastic about Tesla and its cars, especially the Cybertruck, despite the haters online. I’ve encountered probably over a hundred people in my Cybertruck and...
  34. capster

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I’m a bit behind on this thread, but it cracks me up when we get a downdraft in the SP and a bunch of FUD posts here at the same time. It’s like people who are dumb enough to short—into an already crowded trade mind you—also feel the need to come here and telegraph that the downdraft is due...
  35. capster

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    You know guys, I evaluated a lot of technology for quite a while professionally and one thing I learned was to always mentally preface naysayers remarks with "I can’t imagine how that would work" for whatever their reasons or however they define their use cases. Recall all the comments about...
  36. capster

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Another reason to order your Cybertruck now—at least it was for me—is, as we sleep walk our way to WW III (as Elon put it), the Defense Production Act. That Act gives the US President broad authority over manufacturers. Biden and Trump both invoked it during COVID. It would allow the...
  37. capster

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Tesla could finance a substantial chunk of the fleet given the relatively straightforward business of TaaS and, a guess here, there may be tax strategies that add offer some advantages.
  38. capster

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Be less wrong, be more gruntled. Seems like a pretty good recipe for life.
  39. capster

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    This is cryptic. What does EPAS stand for please? Presumably something to do with steer-by-wire. Which spatial needs are less substantial than what? Has the critical safety code to do with some electronic control unit (ECU), the neural net driving, or something in between?
  40. capster

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Funny, I use "like" for linked posts as I feel sharing something someone else posted is a low effort action on the part of the reposter. This assumes the poster added at least some summary info. A bare link gets no response. I also use "like" if I agree with the post. I use "informative" or...
  41. capster

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I’m also at an age and life situation, retired, where I’m sure I’d be advised to diversify, yet I’m all in on TSLA but for my house. Though I do sell shares at times to live off of and to buy the occasional Cybertruck 😁. However, my investment in Tesla isn’t just about me or mine. Tesla...
  42. capster

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Cars already communicate with their signals and other lights as well as horns and sirens. People have been working on vehicle-to-vehicle communications (V2V) for ages but there doesn’t seem to have been that much pressure to adopt it. Perhaps it is a hammer looking for a nail.
  43. capster

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Cybertruck sold out for this year: Orders now show delivery dates next year rather than 2024. Posted by greggertruck on X. I wonder if that means all will be Foundation Series this year. We’ve a hit on our hands! Way to go Tesla! We love you Elon and everyone at Tesla! 👏🏻
  44. capster

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    If a two seater were the right solution for the first world, would we not see more two or more car households having one of those cars be a two seater? Also, I doubt that in ride share services there is large a percentage of two seaters (again I mean in the first world). So, my guess too is...
  45. capster

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    No, I wouldn’t think so. Even if Tesla wanted to devote all their next gen production to robotaxis in one market, there will be other markets where robotaxis aren’t yet legal. I’d think Tesla would want to sell the next gen vehicles into the latter markets on the assumption that some owners...
  46. capster

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Then I’m doubly glad I’ve got my Cybertruck already! A CT in the garage is worth two in the bush.
  47. capster

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Presumably depends on average trip length being fairly short and there being some base cost per trip? That doesn’t seem implausible.
  48. capster

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Depends whether your wife is a student or a teacher. If she’s a student then you might be in a community where the kids’ll want to keep their pickups. If she’s a teacher then you may be in a community where, like most of America (even in Texas 😅), the kids are perpetually on their phones, are...
  49. capster

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    So the trial doesn’t just sell FSD, it samples more data from more drivers in more locations and situations to make FSD even better. And this just as Tesla is no longer constrained on training compute. It’ll be interesting to see just how good FSD becomes by 8/8…