Elon & Twitter

[texas_star_TM3]

Elon really does have a LONG history of just saying any old thing...and never following through on it. His word canNOT be trusted. Thats NOT a good quality of a CEO of a public company

FSD is a great example... "mere failure to realize a long-term, aspirational goal is not fraud.” That's how Tesla lawyers have to clean up Elon's constant "in 2 weeks" promises...

 

[ElectricIAC]

Did anyone catch the bit where Elon said he expected any future CEO to invest their life savings into the company?

https://twitter.com/x/status/1604626103326253056

Interesting.

 

[texas_star_TM3]

Did anyone catch the bit where Elon said he expected any future CEO to invest their life savings into the company?

Interesting.

yeah. and nobody sane would do that... given that per another Elon statement twitter is on fast track to bankruptcy. which will also make his search for additional investors soooooo much easier. lol.

 

[Raisin45567]

When does the crashing and burning begin? I've heard for many weeks now that this is imminent, or will eventually happen. But what I see is this:

- A lot of people said they would leave, but Twitter seems to have more members than ever, who are more active than ever (if we believe Elon, and I do until someone can show me the oppositie is happening).
- Some high profile members were loudly announcing they were leaving or considering leaving Twitter, yet I'm under the impression they are still active (which makes sense if you have tens or hundreds of thousands of followers and then you go to Mastodon or some other wasteland and suddenly have no audience and no feedback).
- The site would crash, but that hasn't materialized.
- All advertisers would leave, but last I heard most have resumed advertising after a short pause (they want to be where the eyeballs are).
- Usability is improving, with fewer bots/scams.

So how is it going to crash and burn? Or is that just dramatized wishful thinking?

Many advertisers have left—estimates by advertising trades have it at 50%. Musk said that Twitter is losing four million a day, which was not the case before the take private. But maybe that has more to do with current debt load.

The biggest crash and burn is Musk trolling 50% of his users both on Twitter and with Tesla. Two birds with one meme. The trolling doesn’t make sense unless you truly believe society will collapse unless you somehow convince center left people that they’re wrong with ad hominem, unpredictable attacks.

 

[ElectricIAC]

Many advertisers have left—estimates by advertising trades have it at 50%. Musk said that Twitter is losing four million a day, which was not the case before the take private. But maybe that has more to do with current debt load.

It would be very interesting if it was uncovered that large advertisers were being warned by Twitter.gov to pull out before EM completed the transaction.

A possible angle he thought of when reneging on the offer to buy.

 

[cdub]

convince center left people that they’re wrong with ad hominem, unpredictable attacks.

Yeah that'll do it.

Tesla used to be the darling of the left as a cause for sustainable energy. He needs to stop acting like a child, apologize, and work towards rebuilding Tesla's relationship with the left. Otherwise they'll NEVER reach the sales goals of 20 mil unless they drastically reduce prices and even then they won't if half the country hates the brand.

 

[MXWing]

When does the crashing and burning begin? I've heard for many weeks now that this is imminent, or will eventually happen. But what I see is this:

- A lot of people said they would leave, but Twitter seems to have more members than ever, who are more active than ever (if we believe Elon, and I do until someone can show me the oppositie is happening).
- Some high profile members were loudly announcing they were leaving or considering leaving Twitter, yet I'm under the impression they are still active (which makes sense if you have tens or hundreds of thousands of followers and then you go to Mastodon or some other wasteland and suddenly have no audience and no feedback).
- The site would crash, but that hasn't materialized.
- All advertisers would leave, but last I heard most have resumed advertising after a short pause (they want to be where the eyeballs are).
- Usability is improving, with fewer bots/scams.

So how is it going to crash and burn? Or is that just dramatized wishful thinking?

On the average, how much juice can you get out of the typical Twitter user? Do they pay for subs? Do not click on advertisements, and buy products to please advertisers?

The users who threaten to leave but stay are:

1.) Not giving Elon any money.
2.) Enjoying their time trashing Elon while making Elon pay for the infrastructure they are trashing him on.
3.) Attacking advertisers who are paying Elon's bills.

In IT, we know that one good engineer can carry 9. That is why the site remains up. Those IT infrastructure engineers though are still a cost center that does not bring in revenue that covers their overhead.

At the end of the day, if it is making less than what it is bringing in, it is a *sugar* show and it is on fire.

Twitter is a *sugar* show and is on fire.

This is Elon's Putin moment. It never was going to end well. It's a matter of how much damage he racks up before he inevitably losses.

Elon never should have fought this war. But if he did, he needed to fight it as the Dogefather. A near universally loved technoking by the left and right. Now he is a hated pariah that has damaged the Tesla brand with nothing but series of unforced errors.

 

[ElectricIAC]

Twitter is a *sugar* show and is on fire.

Has been. For a long time.

 

[2101Guy]

Has been. For a long time.

Financially speaking, since Elon took over, the financial aspect nor overall business aspect (Advertisers leaving in DROVEs) has not been this bad "for a long time". It's been significantly and demonstrably worse (by a LOT), since Elon took over. That's a simple..fact.

are you even capable of being objective in any way at all, with regards to Elon? At all?

 

[mrmage]

When does the crashing and burning begin? I've heard for many weeks now that this is imminent, or will eventually happen. But what I see is this:

- A lot of people said they would leave, but Twitter seems to have more members than ever, who are more active than ever (if we believe Elon, and I do until someone can show me the oppositie is happening).
- Some high profile members were loudly announcing they were leaving or considering leaving Twitter, yet I'm under the impression they are still active (which makes sense if you have tens or hundreds of thousands of followers and then you go to Mastodon or some other wasteland and suddenly have no audience and no feedback).
- The site would crash, but that hasn't materialized.
- All advertisers would leave, but last I heard most have resumed advertising after a short pause (they want to be where the eyeballs are).
- Usability is improving, with fewer bots/scams.

So how is it going to crash and burn? Or is that just dramatized wishful thinking?

The crashing and burning happened last week when TSLA dropped like a rock from Elon selling shares.

My take is this: Elon made an impulse offer to buy Twitter for $44B and waived dd. He realized it was a mistake after the market crashed, but he screwed up big time when he did not foresee TSLA falling so much and backed some of the purchase with margin against his Tesla shares. No doubt some investors backed out because the acquisition was too rich, which made the loan even higher.

As TSLA goes down Elon is forced to sell more stock, a painful experience that anyone who is heavily in margin understands. But what makes it more painful for Elon is that his stock selling drives TSLA further down, making the remainder of his margin loans more vulnerable to margin calls in the future.

Additionally, my margin loan interest rates are now 7%, up from 2% earlier this year. I'm sure Elon's loans are comparable, so Twitter has a huge amount of debt payments to make.

IMO, all his flailing on Twitter is just window dressing. Companies go bankrupt on cash flow and profits, not on number of subscribers or advertisers. Twitter was losing money when it didn't have as much debt and all its advertisers, but is digging a hole to Shanghai gigafactory with the additional debt.

I joined this thread when it was in the investment section. His Twitter actions (selling stock, tweets) clearly and unequivocally have an impact on SP. Some will say only short term impact, some medium term, but anyone who denies any impact is not credible, especially when the short term impact of dropping SP forces Elon to sell huge amounts of stock.

I don't think investors could care less about whether Twitter crashes or burns if it had no effect on TSLA. But excessive drops at random times impact investors who have to sell to fund expenses, have been getting margin called due to Elon's sales of TSLA to fund his Twitter debacle, options holders have been wiped out, etc, so a lot of investors care.

Although I manage my margin and options very proactively to ensure I never come close to forced selling, events around Twitter definitely have a huge impact on my investment.

What amazes me are the Elon supporters who claim everything is fine at Twitter when no one knows any details about its financials. These are the same people who know details on Tesla cargo ships and loading times from China, margins to .1%, and production numbers to the thousand.

Yet without any idea of the margin payments, loan size, or cash flow at Twitter, they boldly proclaim everything is OK. Where are the first principles in that?

Note: A mod explained why the thread was moved to off-topic. Unfortunate because this topic is relevant to investors, but the additional load it imposes causes problems.

 

[ElectricIAC]

Financially speaking, since Elon took over, the financial aspect nor overall business aspect (Advertisers leaving in DROVEs) has not been this bad "for a long time". It's been significantly and demonstrably worse (by a LOT), since Elon took over. That's a simple..fact.

are you even capable of being objective in any way at all, with regards to Elon? At all?

I mean as an overall picture. A social media platform is worthless (to the people) when it’s being used as a vector to manufacture consensus and hide the dirty laundry of lawmakers and other powerful interests.

 

[texas_star_TM3]

It would be very interesting if it was uncovered that large advertisers were being warned by Twitter.gov to pull out before EM completed the transaction.

A possible angle he thought of when reneging on the offer to buy.

maybe you should go on tucker with that conspiracy theory. Because the government warning private companies to stop advertising "or else" would be an impeachable 1A violation...

 

[STS-134]

I mean as an overall picture. A social media platform is worthless (to the people) when it’s being used as a vector to manufacture consensus and hide the dirty laundry of lawmakers and other powerful interests.

Look who's been banned. In the past 4 days, it's been mostly used as a vector to hide the dirty laundry of Elon.

 

[texas_star_TM3]

It would be very interesting if it was uncovered that large advertisers were being warned by Twitter.gov to pull out before EM completed the transaction.

A possible angle he thought of when reneging on the offer to buy.

maybe... just maybe... Elon did this himself with the blue checkmark chaos (fake "real" account promising free insulin costing Eli Lily $millions in stock value), re-tweeting bonkers conspiracy theories from the Santa Monica Observer, the back and forth with Ye and and and.... hint: brand safety

 

[sunwarriors]

When does the crashing and burning begin? I've heard for many weeks now that this is imminent, or will eventually happen. But what I see is this:

- A lot of people said they would leave, but Twitter seems to have more members than ever, who are more active than ever (if we believe Elon, and I do until someone can show me the oppositie is happening).
- Some high profile members were loudly announcing they were leaving or considering leaving Twitter, yet I'm under the impression they are still active (which makes sense if you have tens or hundreds of thousands of followers and then you go to Mastodon or some other wasteland and suddenly have no audience and no feedback).
- The site would crash, but that hasn't materialized.
- All advertisers would leave, but last I heard most have resumed advertising after a short pause (they want to be where the eyeballs are).
- Usability is improving, with fewer bots/scams.

So how is it going to crash and burn? Or is that just dramatized wishful thinking?

My crashing and burning is more a year, 5 year+thing. Will Twitter really be as large/worth as high in 5 or 10 years?

I've stated here before Twitter isn't going away anytime soon and any claiming so is an idiot so no, it's not crashing and burning anytime soon, but if it goes the way of less $$, less value, etc, it's pretty much crash/burned in my eyes.

Edit: Wanted to add that Tesla is down today as well even after announcing this (Elon losing the vote). EVs are all in the crapper, but there is a mix of stocks up in my watch list.

 

[ElectricIAC]

Because the government warning private companies to stop advertising "or else" would be an impeachable 1A violation...

In theory, it would be. But you’re dealing with people who don’t care about the constitution.

In any case, that would be EM’s case to prove and if he has the receipts he should put them out there.

 

[texas_star_TM3]

In theory, it would be. But you’re dealing with people who don’t care about the constitution.

In any case, that would be EM’s case to prove and if he has the receipts he should put them out there.

the level of blindness to what Elon is doing (highly polarizing statements, mismanagement of twitter, rules made up on the fly) and rather blaming some obscure conspiracy theory for the financial struggles of twitter is truly funny...

 

[ElectricIAC]

the level of blindness to what Elon is doing (highly polarizing statements, mismanagement of twitter, rules made up on the fly) and rather blaming some obscure conspiracy theory for the financial struggles of twitter is truly funny...

Someone hasn’t been paying attention to the Twitter files then, willfully or because of distractions and gaslighting it’s not a farfetched conclusion to come to after what’s come to light.

 

[texas_star_TM3]

Someone hasn’t been paying attention to the Twitter files then, willfully or because of distractions and gaslighting it’s not a farfetched conclusion to come to after what’s come to light.

someone who has been misinterpreting the twitter files.... because nowhere in the files did Matt or Bari say that government forced twitter to do anything.
ironically we are also talking about Trump's DOJ under notorious leftist AG Bill Barr, DHS under antifa loving Chad Wolf and the FBI under his nominee Chris Wray .... all hotbeds of progressives...

 

[ElectricIAC]

It’s very curious that the “Twitter overhang” hasn’t cured with the poll results and Elon presumably turning the crown over to someone else.

Perhaps it’s because those who now see Elon as an apostate will accept nothing less than 100% capitulation and deference. (Some members here have even posted as much)

We’ll have to see.