National and State Renewable Energy stats

[paulp]

The other catch is that they appear to consider all the data on your solar production to be their proprietary data.

My data will confuse enphase. For some reason the powerwalls prevent the enphase data properly processing so I rely on the tesla data, stored by tesla…Is that a catch as well?

 

[paulp]

Yeah, like a lifetime of people’s Facebook, Instagram and Twitter posts

And tesla powerwall data

 

[Vostok]

The stats for March - a slightly better performance than in February. The renewable percentage is up 360 basis points from the same month last year, 630 basis points from 2 years ago and 970 basis points from 3 years ago.

Renewable energy generation for March - average for the month:

• National - 38.6%
• TAS - 99.7%
• SA - 78.1%
• WA - 39.9%
• VIC - 37.8%
• NSW - 34.6%
• QLD - 27.5%

Peak renewable generation for March - and time of occurrence:

• National - 69.6% on 09 Mar 12:15
• TAS - 100.0% on many occasions
• SA - 98.3% on 02 Mar 16:45
• WA - 75.7% on 10 Mar 15:00
• NSW - 73.2% on 30 Mar 13:00
• VIC - 69.6% on 09 Mar 12:30
• QLD - 61.6% on 30 Mar 13:45

Daytime renewable performance for March - renewable percentage when solar production is not zero:

• National - 45.2%
• TAS - 99.7%
• SA - 81.5%
• WA - 49.8%
• NSW - 45.9%
• VIC - 45.9%
• QLD - 37.9%

Nighttime renewable performance for March - renewable percentage when solar production is zero:

• National - 23.7%
• TAS - 99.8%
• SA - 71.8%
• WA - 27.2%
• VIC - 26.2%
• NSW - 16.1%
• QLD - 10.1%

Diurnal renewable hardness for March - ratio of nighttime renewable percentage to daytime:

• National - 0.52
• TAS - 1.00
• SA - 0.88
• VIC - 0.57
• WA - 0.55
• NSW - 0.35
• QLD - 0.27

Small Scale / Rooftop solar as a proportion of all generation for March - invisible to AEMO:

• National - 13.1%
• SA - 24.6%
• WA - 20.0%
• NSW - 12.4%
• VIC - 11.7%
• QLD - 11.2%
• TAS - 5.4%

Renewable mix for March - solar includes small-scale solar, hydro includes pumped hydro:

• National - Wind: 33.6%, Solar: 53.3%, Hydro: 13.2%
• NSW - Wind: 23.3%, Solar: 67.8%, Hydro: 8.9%
• QLD - Wind: 19.0%, Solar: 73.8%, Hydro: 7.2%
• SA - Wind: 56.5%, Solar: 43.5%, Hydro: 0.0%
• TAS - Wind: 20.7%, Solar: 5.5%, Hydro: 73.9%
• VIC - Wind: 45.6%, Solar: 42.1%, Hydro: 12.3%
• WA - Wind: 50.0%, Solar: 50.0%, Hydro: 0.0%

SNSWNB Index for March - sun not shining wind not blowing index: total duration in minutes spread across N separate periods:

• National - 0 minutes across 0 periods
• NSW - 0 minutes across 0 periods
• QLD - 0 minutes across 0 periods
• SA - 0 minutes across 0 periods
• TAS - 135 minutes across 3 periods
• VIC - 0 minutes across 0 periods
• WA - 0 minutes across 0 periods

 

[Aryll]

AEMO has released its latest Quarterly Energy Dynamics report, covering Q1 2024.

https://aemo.com.au/-/media/files/major-publications/qed/2024/qed-q1-2024.pdf?la=en&hash=CDAE3D2A5BA31DD3BF03A1EA39840F34

Here are a few of the graphs that stood out to me (all of these relate only to the NEM - they don't include WA).

 

[Aryll]

 

[Vostok]

Does AEMO hypothecate as to why there was a significant increase in operational demand Q1 2024 vs Q1 2023? What’s reported here looks like a significant increase - 4.2%.

Operational Demand in the NEM has gone nowhere for 15 years. It peaked in 2008, drooped slowly from there, and only in 2023 did underlying demand come back up and finally topple this record - by a mere 0.06% or 5 hours of demand.

Australia's population has increased 22% in that same period, so per-capita demand is still significantly down from the peak.

 

[Hairyman]

Thanks for the analysis @Aryll

 

[Vostok]

The stats for April. The renewable percentage is up only 70 basis points from the same month last year, but 460 basis points up from 2 years ago and 820 basis points up from 3 years ago.

Renewable energy generation for April - average for the month:

• National - 36.1%
• TAS - 99.4%
• SA - 69.4%
• WA - 38.5%
• VIC - 32.6%
• NSW - 31.5%
• QLD - 26.6%

Peak renewable generation for April - and time of occurrence:

• National - 66.7% on 23 Apr 12:30
• TAS - 100.0% on many occasions
• SA - 98.1% on 19 Apr 15:45
• NSW - 74.3% on 14 Apr 12:45
• WA - 71.7% on 10 Apr 14:45
• VIC - 66.3% on 23 Apr 14:00
• QLD - 63.0% on 11 Apr 14:15

Daytime renewable performance for April - renewable percentage when solar production is not zero:

• National - 43.5%
• TAS - 99.6%
• SA - 79.7%
• WA - 47.7%
• NSW - 44.9%
• VIC - 40.1%
• QLD - 38.1%

Nighttime renewable performance for April - renewable percentage when solar production is zero:

• National - 22.4%
• TAS - 99.3%
• SA - 54.7%
• WA - 28.4%
• VIC - 23.8%
• NSW - 14.2%
• QLD - 9.7%

Diurnal renewable hardness for April - ratio of nighttime renewable percentage to daytime:

• National - 0.51
• TAS - 1.00
• SA - 0.69
• WA - 0.60
• VIC - 0.59
• NSW - 0.32
• QLD - 0.25

Small Scale / Rooftop solar as a proportion of all generation for April - invisible to AEMO:

• National - 11.2%
• SA - 20.0%
• WA - 18.1%
• QLD - 11.2%
• NSW - 11.0%
• VIC - 8.3%
• TAS - 3.0%

Renewable mix for April - solar includes small-scale solar, hydro includes pumped hydro:

• National - Wind: 33.1%, Solar: 49.8%, Hydro: 17.1%
• NSW - Wind: 24.7%, Solar: 65.7%, Hydro: 9.7%
• QLD - Wind: 16.7%, Solar: 74.9%, Hydro: 8.4%
• SA - Wind: 57.8%, Solar: 42.2%, Hydro: 0.0%
• TAS - Wind: 15.6%, Solar: 3.0%, Hydro: 81.4%
• VIC - Wind: 51.0%, Solar: 35.9%, Hydro: 13.1%
• WA - Wind: 52.9%, Solar: 47.1%, Hydro: 0.0%

SNSWNB Index for April - sun not shining wind not blowing index: total duration in minutes spread across N separate periods:

• National - 0 minutes across 0 periods
• NSW - 0 minutes across 0 periods
• QLD - 0 minutes across 0 periods
• SA - 0 minutes across 0 periods
• TAS - 0 minutes across 0 periods
• VIC - 0 minutes across 0 periods
• WA - 0 minutes across 0 periods

 

[Aryll]

Does AEMO hypothecate as to why there was a significant increase in operational demand Q1 2024 vs Q1 2023? What’s reported here looks like a significant increase - 4.2%.

Analysis of the reasons behind the increase was limited to commenting on the weather:

1.1.1 Weather

In Q1 2024, warmer weather conditions continued, with average mean temperatures above historical averages across most regions.

January and February stood out, marking Australia’s third-warmest January and fourth-warmest February on record since 1910.

The national area-averaged mean temperature was 1.54°C higher in January than the 1961–1990 average, then 1.71°C higher in February and 1.11°C higher in March.

Average minimum temperatures were elevated in many parts of the country, with warm overnight temperatures across the quarter.

In January and February, night-time temperatures were the highest on record for parts of New South Wales and Queensland. Compared to Q1 2023, Brisbane and Sydney experienced notable increases of 0.8°C and 0.6°C in minimum temperatures, respectively. Adelaide experienced a 0.8°C increase, with much of this rise occurring in March.

In this quarter, Cooling Degree Days (CDDs)1 rose in all major mainland cities except for Melbourne, increasing
cooling requirements. Brisbane experienced a notable increase in CDDs in January, nearly doubling the 2023 level, while February saw a 24% increase. Similarly, Sydney observed large increases, more than doubling the previous Q1 levels in both January and February. Adelaide, despite reduced CDDs in January and February, saw a significant year-on-year increase of 51 in March, up from just 2 in 2023.

1 A “cooling degree day” (CDD), which is based on the average daily temperature, is a measurement used as an indicator of outside temperature levels above what is considered a comfortable (base) temperature. CDD value is calculated as max (0, average temperature – base temperature)

More analysis of demand:

1.1.2 Demand outcomes

In Q1 2024, NEM operational demand averaged 21,552 MW, the highest Q1 average since 2020, and a 1.7% increase from Q1 2023. Underlying demand increased by 679 MW (+2.8%) to reach a record Q1 average of 24,822 MW. This uptick was partially offset by the rise in distributed PV output, which averaged 3,270 MW this quarter, a 10% increase on Q1 2023, and the second highest quarterly average after 2023 Q4.

The increase in operational demand was evident across nearly all hours, particularly outside daytime hours. Queensland accounted for most of the increase, with a rise of 403 MW (+6.2%) to reach its second highest quarterly average at 6,917 MW. New South Wales’s operational demand averaged 7,658 MW, up by 62 MW (+0.8%) from the previous Q1, while South Australia averaged 1,269 MW, a 24 MW (+2.0%) increase. Victoria and Tasmania experienced reductions of 98 MW (-2.1%) and 21 MW (-1.9%) respectively. Notably, Victoria’s average of 4,600 MW was a record low for Q1.


Underlying demand growth during summer period

Underlying demand surged in Queensland and New South Wales due to heightened cooling requirements, resulting in respective increases of 428 MW (+5.8%) and 162 MW (+1.9%). Queensland’s average underlying demand of 7,848 MW was its highest level recorded for any quarter. Demand growth was particularly evident during the summer months (November to February), with December 2023 and January 2024 witnessing significant year-on-year increases of 16% and 12% respectively in Queensland, and 10% and 5% respectively in New South Wales. The pace slowed in February before a decline in March, with New South Wales’ and Queensland’s monthly averages decreasing by 181 MW (-2.1%) and 93 MW (-1.2%) respectively.